Alright I am going to say this from my humble experience from what I see and how I view this situation.
I am actually a Singaporean working in Hong Kong and China for the past 11 years.

If you guys are interested you can actually ask me about the situation in Hong Kong and China.
In regards to this whole situation with Russia and if I compare Russia and China.
The huge difference is Russia is Putin. But China is not Xi Jinping. China is pretty much controlled by the CCP and their inner fractions.

From what I know, China will definitely aid Russia in economical terms. But when it comes to military , I don't think the Chinese will lift a finger. They do not want to get involved.
The Chinese will give economical aid to both Ukraine and Russia. Both are the Chinese business partners in a sense, they can't afford to lose their business interest in both countries.

There have been news that China is trying to mediate or have been trying to mediate for the past 2 weeks but things doesn't seem to be progressing as it should.
It is going to be very difficult for the Chinese since Russia is their business ally. They have never admitted at least to my knowledge that they are defense allies. It is very grey.

But it seems to me that the Chinese are the ones, at least from the government level, do not want to see this happening at the moment.
If anything, both China and India ( yes a weird combination) can somehow help the situation at the moment.

Both the common folks in Russia and Ukraine are suffering. It is extremely difficult to digest.

Lots of hopes being banked on sanctions. Is there any major or notable example in recent history where sanctions have succeeded in inducing either a regime change or a change of behavior?

This post was edited by Lebanon961 on Mar 22 2022 12:56am

US has been complaining about China being quiet in condemning the invasion and that China will face consequnces if they 'compensate Russia for the damage on sanctions'. They even alluded to China having prior knowledge of the invasion which China denied.
Who knows what the real deal is but I think it is China's interest to support Russia at least covertly because 1- They face a similar issue with Taiwan as Russia does with Ukraine and 2- The more US diverts resources to Europe the less they have for the 'pivot to Asia'.

I can't catch Pokémons, for example

USA have been urging China to sanction or Condemn Russia.
A interesting quote that was surfaced on Twitter yesterday by an anchor of China's state own news outlet says this about Biden in regards to his request to China.

Liu Xin : Can you help me fight your friend so that I can concentrate on fighting you later?

Going by some public announcement, and armchair think tanking, it isn't far-fetched that China would be helping out Russia financially through this ordeal.
In any case, sanctions do nothing but impoverish the people of the nation. If the only tool you have is a hammer then everything starts looking like a nail. I think this is the case with sanctions. The simplistic "carrot and stick" approach has failed too many times that is because it assumes the adversary is a donkey.

ia.

The West will not countenance China being a peacekeeper. that would give China too much power. From day 1 China has played peacekeeper in its media, taking a neutral stance (as an uninvolved) but this has fallen on deaf ears. China has also clearly outlined why they will not sanction Russia and it makes sense for China to Aid Russia, and Ukraine.
completely agree with the bolded.




America knew Russia was going to invade Ukraine. Years ago. We have moved well beyond the causes of this war, its well documented at the start of the thread via posts and video's. If its easier to follow the popular narrative, have at it.

News around the world ~

Ireland : A Russian court has found jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny guilty on embezzlement charges that could see his prison sentence significantly extended. Russian prosecutors are seeking to move Mr Navalny to a maximum security penal colony for 13 years on charges of fraud and contempt of court.
Al Jazeera (sorry snowflakes) : Ukraine says Russia using banned bombs. Phosphorus munitions used by Russian forces in the besieged eastern city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian official says.
China : UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippo Grandi, said in a tweet on Sunday that 10 million people have fled their homes in Ukraine, either internally displaced or as refugees abroad.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 22 2022 04:16am

I don't know what popular narratives you mean. I am trying to read between the lines of public announcements in order to speculate what is going on behind the scenes. The way I see it is that if the US is accusing China of prior knowledge, and threatening them if they help Russia with regard to sanctions (these are the public statements), then behind the scene that lead to these announcements is some sort of deal between Russia and China with regard to Ukraine invasion. Of course this is speculation and could be totally wrong

Of course there is. Once the Obama admin signed the Iran nuclear deal, the Mullah regime immediately used this newfound financial breathing room to ramp up its proxy wars in Syria, Yemen and Iraq.
The economic collapse of Venezuela, which was not originally caused but significantly sped up by U.S. sanctions, has nipped the wave of far-left populism which was "threatening" to sweep Latin America in the bud.
The sanctions on Cuba also helped impoverish the country, which has greatly diminished the Castro regime's ability to influence American politics and basically neutralized them as a geopolitical thorn in America's side.
The diplomatic efforts at bringing down the racist apartheid regime in South Africa during the 80s were helped greatly by accompanying economic boycotts and sanctions.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 22 2022 04:20am

OK, so this goes back to the origins of this thread, which most users in this thread disagree with me on. I would have it that America policies (in tandem with Russia's security concerns) over the last decade led to this conflict. I would expect that a bright spark in China, not being involved, would see it more clearly then those in the West, that Russia would invade. Thats why they are not sanctioning Russia, because they accept Russia's own security concerns (they have stated this already). Whether a backroom deal was made between Russia and China in the last 6 months to my mind, is irrelevant. I dont even know what kind of deal they would make, or have a need for one, they are not enemies. China is standing aside from the western narrative which would have it that Putin woke up one morning insane and decided to invade a country, unprovoked, because he is a power hungry putler that wants to take over the world.

if that makes sense ?



This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 22 2022 04:28am