I was thinking why did he post Paul Dibbs .

- Russia as ussr... has no precise borders, or the largest borders possible, and this is a problem.
- It is clearly established in the video that Russian situation pushes China to worry about / question itself, China which has not experienced a conflict (ignoring the civilian repressions and genocides) since 44 years. "1979"
- Not all armies are the same, he said one was protecting russia, the other the ccp. Figure out maybe it's ideological, maybe purely materialistic. This is what he said anyway.
- Must notice videos about china are more than 5 years old. Would not take both in account, as simple as that. Ukraine agression is alterating everything.

/e Catherine II was a slut, believe me. and this is not a topic to talk about china's demographics.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Mar 15 2023 06:17am

what timestamp in the video is this ? I didnt see that in the 1st video you posted. I am watching the 2nd one now but the 2nd video is more about china and not related to ukraine (so far).

also I think the speaker never would have imagined (a) USA's strategy of pushing Russia towards China and (b) Russia's ability to find common ground with China. in this regard your not wrong, some of these video are with the benefit of hindsight, erroneous. Indeed there are very strong caveats put into the start of the 2nd video on the approach they adopted to arrive at their position (that China will not become a rival to the US) - they have ignored causation entirely, and this to my mind is the fallacy of the argument presented here. They freely admit that there are competing views on this point.

When we consider the more thought out and considered view from the realists (say Meirscheimer) where they look at cause and effect - not only did they make predictions 2 decades ago but those predictions actually came to fruition. In this regard it is difficult to accept that, notwithstanding the inherrent flaw of the 1 child policy and that China is going to have serious problems over the next 2 decades as a consequence, nevertheless their government is doing alot of things, right for chinese growth as a regional power.

Accepting this is the Russia thread, I dont mind moving away from China and mentioning the US Drone downing - I see there is a topic about it already. Ultimately that drone is not flying anywhere near the US, it is flying close to Russia. The US has stated that Putin has to go, that Russia is the enemy. They have spent 50Billion + in aid to Ukraine, I dont see a problem with shooting or knocking down a US warplane in the region. Whats it even doing there ? If Russia had a military drone. Hell, lets make it simple: If China had a military balloon over the US, the US would shoot it down.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 15 2023 06:26am

Sorry i watched the video yesterday, i don't have timestamps in mind. "1979" is at 2/3 maybe. After that the deep fate of China is definitely another topic, feel free to make one if you want.
I think Ukraine agression changed and will change many things. Yet i'm done with the superpowers "realism" and completely anti-ideological narrative, fender posted a decent video about it you should take a look.
Many of these people are very old while the world did not stop to accelerate. I know that nations don't have a soul, but people who vote in democratic countries have some kind of, more than ever.

I would rephrase what you said. you refer to Ukrainian aggression. I would say: I think the military invasion by Russia into Ukraine, has changed the world geopolitical landscape for generations and it is likely never to return to what it was.

Also, I am not going to look for a fender post. If you have the video and want to repost it I will watch it however.

Finally, old does not mean incapable/unsound/wrong. opinions and projections can be wrong but these can be made by people of any age. i note that a speaker in teh 2nd video is young.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 15 2023 06:52am

Reminded for long, but the very much course then end of conflict and big outputs can happend pretty quickly. Yet still have to remember that 7 years after the end of ww2 : European Coal and Steel Community.

https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=92094408&f=119&p=642440046

just going to dump the drone topic here, for prosperity: https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=100206832&f=119

Former US advisor on root causes

The only thing I agree with is at the beginning when she said that 2008 (Bucharest summit) was a bad idea and the West should've handled that better.

Everything after that is claiming that Putin was since 1991 thinking about reinstating the USSR or expansion. If that is true, the conflict would've started earlier because Putin has watched NATO expanding round after round by which he then lost the opportunity to take that territory back according to that logic. Plain and simple.

Ukraine was a step too far, NATO should NOT have pushed it that far and negotiations could've taken place at the beginning where NATO and EU could've agreed on Ukraine staying neutral (meaning no NATO / EU membership).