Quote (ferdia @ 15 Mar 2023 10:35)
This video provides an Australian analysis of the potential causes of the conflict and highlights the growing co-operation between Russia and China. We have not had a video from Australia like this in the topic. Thank you for posting it.
The Key points to my mind -
1. The various schools of thought as to the root causes of the war.
2. The US refusal to provide the long range version of Himars to Ukraine, the concern as to how Russia will respond should the system be used to bomb Crimea or Moscow.
3. The stated belief that there is a strong likelyhood that the war will go beyond the Ukrainian border (and by this I presume he refers to Russia in a direct war with Nato)
I did not dwell on:
1. That intelligence relating to likelihood of war was correct but that the intelligence on Russia capabilities was not and that the same considerations re: China are required (i.e. that there is no evidence to support that China is militarily capable).
2. The assertion that the Russians believe in no border anywhere whatsoever.
3. The assertion that China wants to and is capable of subsuming all of Russia into China within our lifetime.
TLDR: while people may disagree with some of the themes or observations raised in this video, nevertheless the video repeats what we have seen in lectures from other countries that there is a high likelyhood that the war is going to escalate to the extent of a direct conflict between Nato and Russia.
watching this one now:
"Paul Dibb: The Rise of China and the Inevitable Decline of America"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zSO4vOJ5icw
First must know this video is 8 months old.
You cherry picked few points. Yet have to notice he said:
- "Russia" has no precise borders and this cause issues. Fall of Ussr lead to the creation of 15 sub-countries.
- Russia has hard time integrating the west, it is itself divided: claiming: moscow russians, little ukraine russians, white russians...
- Russia and soviets have been vastly over-estimated, since decades.
- Ukraine had 2000 nukes, these got removed in exchange for protection against an agressor: Ukraine knows its agressor.
- War course stay unknown atm, the nuclear threat is clear, "im not a military expert".
- Russia's army is protecting russia, Chinese army is protecting the ccp.
- China is learning from this conflict, may doubt, get weapons tech from russia, but may end up to an enemy at some point.
What i learnt from this video regrading china: over estimated, once again and it's not the first time:
authoritarian countries have terrible flaws.Not understanding why some people are claiming these models as viable, alternative, solutions. Not only it's inhuman, but also ineffective.
Still talking about China... Why not...
Why China Will Not Become the Dominant Power in Asia
The belief that China will soon become the dominant power in Asia is based on assumptions that its continued and rapid economic rise, and its emergence as a regional peer of America’s in military terms is all but assured. Such a belief underpins arguments that a fundamental strategic reorganisation of Asia is inevitable, and that it will be necessary and perhaps even desirable to concede to China significant ‘strategic space’. Dependent largely on linear extrapolations about the future, such arguments ignore the implications of China’s economic, social and national fragilities, its lack of major friends or allies in the region as well as the considerable military deficiencies and challenges faced by the People’s Liberation Army. With the Defence White Paper due for release in 2015, the government should bear in mind that planning for an era of Chinese dominance in the region—or even its emergence as an American strategic peer in Asia—would be premature if not improbable. Australia should not design its defence force for war with China, but it should be able to counter Chinese coercion and contribute to Allied military operations if necessary.