So to be clear, your view is that a Ukrainian win can look like this :

Putin deposed, Eastern Ukraine returned to Ukraine and (forgive me now)a vague notion of splitting Crimea in half and either sanctions stopped if Russia plays nice or sanctions continue if Russia does not play nice?

OK

So my response is as follows:

In the event that Putin is deposed, following a humiliating defeat, it is my stated belief (I said this before) that Putin's replacement would be far worse and very anti Ukrainian and very Anti EU and Anti US. What that would actually mean for US (the western world) I dont know. It may be that they hate us but cant / won't do anything about it. That they accept the loss of Crimea, the war, Ukraine in Nato. Thats the best scenario. I dont like relying on the best scenario, especially where said scenario is unlikely. In any event the best we can hope for is a new leader in Russia with a grudge against us. That, long term, is not good. Russia is fundamentally isolationist however so its not world ending, unless we somehow change their world view (not recommended as it will be a problem for us). The current Russia, while we dont like it, is not world ending. the new Russia, with a grudge, will be a problem if Russia does not win this war.

If Ukraine liberates eastern Ukraine I believe that Russia will conscript more men. If Ukraine liberates Crimea I believe Russia will either conscript more men, or go Nuclear. Neither prospect sees Ukraine winning the war. I believe Ukraine may have alot of gains in 2023. But Yes, I believe that ultimately Russia will win the war. Win is a relative term. No one wins this war, the loss of life on both sides is already insanely high. And here is the issue: No matter what Ukraine does, without Nato or US troops I do not see them being able to liberate the land stolen by Russia on the basis that their population is 25million and the Russian population is 140M+. In the event that Russia is utterly hopeless on the battlefield (and here Western training and supply/advanced weapons can be commended) I see Russia going Nuclear, or simply training more troops and re-invading. The grass is not always greener and I am not convinced Putin's replacement will be happy with Ukraine in Nato and with Russia having little or none of Crimea.

In my opinion there is no prospect of the people of Russia rising up to remove Putin and his underlings. There is no prospect of a Navalny type figure becoming the next Russian leader. There is the prospect of Russia rallying around its leader (whoever thay may be) and defending Crimea tooth and nail.

And do I see a scenario where Russia "wins" its agression then ask Ukraine to accept loss, not paying back anything it destroyed, keeping children it abducted, raping ukrainian women, Stealing all ressources & looting. Killing men, Then putin saying (here i change what you said) "Russia won" and US & EU doing nothing ? - Bluntly now my answer is Yes. This is a terrible eventuality for the people of Ukraine and I wish it were not plausible, but I genuinely believe that if Ukraine tries to take back Crimea, and has the ability to do so, that Russia will go nuclear, and otherwise I see Russia winning via the conventional war.

I tend to be quite negative on western strategy and narrative on the basis that we should be better, both from a moral/ethical standpoint and in presenting the facts. Nord Stream is a perfect example of this, as is Nato expansion. This is a western website and this topic is meant for debate. The reality, in my opinion, is that at some point the US is going to leave Ukraine hanging, or will sleep walk into WW3. Therefore I cannot fathom why little effort was made at negotiating last year, yes, Ukraine would have lost land, but it was a better outcome then what is probably going to happen next, which is the complete and utter ruin of Ukraine, which Russia, America, the EU and Ukraine should not want. yea and we dont want WW3 either.


This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 14 2023 12:25pm

Russians had open economy with EU for a while, they tasted the west. Putin's generation is now old, they will be replaced by new ones, agitating the "worse" leader and the nukes will not work on EU or US.

You think the west can accept Russia and let the crimes to continue, well, i guess i'm not suprised considering all the shit sources you posted in this topic. This was the last time i had an "argument" with you.

Does this mean you will go away?

You know there is a French forum right?

its not an argument its a debate.

ultimately you believe that Ukraine will win, will recapture all of its land, including parts of crimea. I dont see that happening. this is called a difference of opinion. It is not called right and wrong.

In the event that ukraine wins, liberates eastern ukraine and liberates crimea and russia says "sorry", or simply goes home, and does nothing (like invade again) i will be one the first people to say "Great". Hoping for something is not the same thing as accepting that we dont always get what we hope for however.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 14 2023 01:02pm

We should check if there's a shitmulti sub-section

There isn't. There is a French forum though.

So you're leaving?

Good riddance

There are a few figures that I will not post because it will ruffle feathers. Need to look for those that are closer in the middle. But then again , even if those that you post are closer to the middle, you will have someone calling them senile old shill because their comments do not fit their narrative.

Imagine posting Naom Chomsky

Dear diary.

Your addicted to attention in this thread so you normalize the maggots that support a terrorist state. Kudos to you.

Bullshit enabler.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 14 2023 04:33pm

Zelensky doing a Gerasimov and throwing his troops into a pointless fight in Bakhmut. First big military call Ukraine has got wrong in this war; hope it doesn't come back to haunt them.