National polls have tightened a bit since last week. Biden is sitting at 9.1 points nationally and the Economist model is giving Biden a 95% chance of winning the election. 538, a more conservative model, gives Biden an 88% chance of winning. Trump basically needs an inside straight to win. A LOT (60+ million) have already cast votes but I don't want to make any predictions based on that data. We often talk about the polls being wrong in Trump's favor but we never talk about polls being wrong in Biden's favor. There's been some analysis done in competitive 2016 House races and the numbers look pretty terrible for Trump. There seems to be a discrepancy in polling here and if the House polls are correct, it may generate an even larger win for Biden. Anyway, the House is a done deal but the Democrats are going for the trifecta. 538 gives the Dems a 75% chance of getting the trifecta and there are several competitive Senate races (within 5%). Here are the competitive Republican held seats: GA, GA (special election), IA, KS, ME, MT, and NC. States that aren't very competitive that will cause a shift: AL (D->R), AZ (R->D), CO (R->D). Some of these races are closer than others, but if we assume a Biden win, the GOP basically needs 2 of these 3 to keep the Senate (IA, NC, and ME). There's talk about Lindsey Graham losing and that seems possible but unlikely. IF Graham loses, I imagine that one GA seat will flip, Dems sweep the 3 I mentioned, and they win 1 of KS/MT (very conservative Dems). That would put give the Dems a total of 54 seats and I think that's their realistic upper bound. Even if the Dems have that many seats, that's not really a progressive mandate because all of these Democrats are fairly moderate. If anything, it shows the progressives that they are insignificant faggots and that moderate lives matter.

AK: Trump +6.4 (+1.5). While Biden is doing significantly better than expected, the Libertarian candidates are doing even better (not surprising for Alaska). The Senate race appears to be a mirror of the presidential race. This is likely Trump territory but don't lose your shit if Trump loses and/or the Dems pick up this Senate seat. It's within the realm of reasonable possibilities. 538 chance to win: Trump 82% (+4%), Economist chance to win: Trump 89% (-4%).
AZ: Biden +2.8 (-1.7). Republican pollsters are skewing this average a bit but maybe they are seeing something that the rest aren't? Biden isn't as strong with Hispanics as Hillary but he is significantly stronger in the suburbs. A Biden win here basically seals the deal. As for the Senate, the Dems are about as likely to pick this up as Republicans are of keeping Alaska. McSally is a horrible candidate whereas Kelly is one of the strongest Dem candidates ever. 538 chance to win: Biden 66% (-2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 70% (+3%).
FL: Biden +2.0 (-1.9). The Florida race has definitely tightened and Trump is going ALL IN on this state. Fortunately, we'll probably know the results of the election on election night which should tell us that Biden won or we won't know who wins for about a week. You won't be able to tell if Trump won on election night unless something crazy happens. For the nerds: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-florida/538 chance to win: Biden 65% (-7%), Economist chance to win: Biden 75% (-1%).
GA: Biden +1.2 (-0.1). I'm actually more interested in GA than FL because the demographics are fairly different. I think it's very possible for Trump to carry FL but lose GA which would be a pretty big deal. GA has two Senate races to pay attention to: Ossoff vs. Perdue and a likely run-off election. The GOP is favored to win the regular and the Democrats are favored to win the run-off. Why? Loeffler/Collins are simply weaker candidates. 538 chance to win: Biden 52% (+2%), Economist chance to win: Trump 57% (+3%).
IA: Biden +1.2 (+1.0). Trump is in serious danger of losing this state and if he does, it's game over in the rust belt. Ernst losing is basically a coin flip which would be game over for the GOP held Senate. 538 chance to win: Trump 51% (-7%), Economist chance to win: Trump 51% (-13%).
ME-2: Biden +2.1 (-0.4). Biden doesn't need this but this is a TERRIBLE omen for Trump. Statewide, Collins is likely toast. 538 chance to win: Biden 51% (-1%). Economist: N/A
MI: Biden +8.3 (+0.3). This is a done deal but this isn't necessary for Trump (that was just a slap in the face to Hillary). The GOP actually has a really strong Senate candidate in John James but Trump is dragging him down too much. 538 chance to win: Biden 94% (+3%), Economist chance to win: Biden 97% (+5%).
MN: Biden +9.2 (+0.1). Out of reach for Trump and the GOP Senate. 538 chance to win: Biden 94% (+2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 97% (+2%).
NE-2: Biden +6.7 (-0.8). This is why Biden will win the election: strength in the suburbs. 538 chance to win: Trump 78% (+0%). Economist: N/A
NV: Biden +6.5 (+0.2). A lot of good polls for Biden here. Don't be surprised if Dems win this by more than 10 points though since polls typically underestimate Democratic strength. 538 chance to win: Biden 90% (+3%), Economist chance to win: Biden 92% (+4%).
NH: Biden +11.2 (-0.4). Nothing to say here. 538 chance to win: Biden 87% (+1%), Economist chance to win: Biden 96% (+2%).
NC: Biden +2.4 (-0.8). A close race but a likely Biden win. The Senate race is the MOST important and will determine who wins the Senate. Cunningham basically dodged a bullet given the scandal of failing to cheat on his wife. Maybe the GOP will catch a break and he'll be similarly inept with legislation? 538 chance to win: Biden 66% (-1%), Economist chance to win: Biden 76% (+12%).
OH: Trump +1.6 (+1.3). Trump received some good news in this state and the polls are trending in his favor. I wouldn't be surprised if he won this state by 4 points. Unfortunately, the fact that this race is so close is a pretty terrible sign. The ticket splitting in this state is fascinating and maybe Skinned can give some insight here. 538 chance to win: Trump 58% (+7%), Economist chance to win: Trump 60% (-5%).
PA: Biden +5.3 (-1.5). This is the holy grail. Whoever wins this, wins the election barring some crazy scenarios. Post debate polls show Biden doing quite well and you would need a MASSIVE polling error in the rust belt for Trump to win this state. 538 chance to win: Biden 86% (-2%), Economist chance to win: Biden 93% (+4%).
TX: Trump +1.3 (-0.1). Biden pulled ads in the Texas suburbs (maybe because they are done voting?) but kept them in the border area. I'd love to be a fly on the wall for both campaigns when it comes to Texas strategy. The Senate race seems to be safe-ish for Republicans. 538 chance to win: Trump 67% (-2%), Economist chance to win: Trump 74% (+4%).
WI: Biden +7.1 (-0.3). This state is less interesting because PA is what really matters. 538 chance to win: Biden 89% (+1%), Economist chance to win: Biden 96% (+5%).

Current map: https://www.270towin.com/maps/p1jrY

a 10% chance to win isnt negligable. Like bidens campaign manager said, its still a race.

Thanks for the update, I appreciate it!
I do, however, think that you're a bit too confident in 1. this election being a sealed deal for Biden and 2. in it becoming a landslide leading to a strong Democratic trifecta. I think that's what you are subjectively hoping for: a forceful repudiation of everything Trump.

One specific point where you're completely wrong is that Democrats would be favored in the potential runoff(s) for the Georgia senate seats. Democrats have always performed atrociously in these runoffs, their turnout always cratered. Since the Dem vote in GA is not purely driven by blue-trending suburbs and also relies a lot on low propensity blacks, I wouldnt bet on the Trump voter swap (college-educated high propensity suburbanites to the D column, low education low propensity rural whites to the R's) to reverse this long-standing pattern. If the results from the regular election are close, then the R candidates will be the favorites in the January runoffs.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 27 2020 02:33pm

How long before we know who wins? Im thinking 2-3 days

your "10%" starts climbing a bit when they start willy nilly chucking out mailed ballots that they don't like

States which can be called early include Florida, North Carolina and Georgia.

The modal outcome for election night is that Florida can be called for Biden based on a ~2% margin or so, which would more or less spell doom for Trump and leave him with something like a 1% chance to win. (Conditional on losing Florida, he'd be a heavy underdog in NC, AZ and GA - but he'd need to hold all of them plus sweep all of WI/MI/PA.)

I'm just going by what the data shows. Pundits will be the ones pushing whatever narrative they choose and it really depends on what happens. If Trump overperforms with Hispanics, what does that mean for the future of the GOP? If Biden dominates the suburbs, is that permanent? At the end of the day, I don't think you can divine any long term trends based on this election alone.

I agree that Democrats typically do poorly in runoffs. Loeffler is a pretty atrocious candidate though and Collins is a full-blown Trumper who might not do well. Being favored doesn't mean much in this situation because it's basically a tossup.

The last time there was a runoff in a Georgia senate election, the margin went from R+3 in the regular election to R+14.8 in the runoff:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

Sure, you can argue that Obama being on the ballot supercharged the black vote in the general election, and that this effect was missing in the runoff - but then again, the same can be said about Trump. When he is no longer on the ballot in a potential runoff, there simply is less reason for the suburbs to be in all-out rebellion.

which is bizarre. so many busybody female and male karens panicking in the suburbs. no matter who wins, I think these groups should have to pay for the tax rates they are endorsing in their vote. so the fearful rebellious suburbs should pay 50-60%+ effective tax rates (just federal too, state and fica are additional.)