Quote (Hamsterbaby @ 10 Mar 2023 14:17)
One of the United States Greatest Advantages to me is geographical position which i completely agree with you. Her two nearest neighbours are zero threat.
The greatest threat towards America now, apart from the Rise of the Chinese is actually her own people. The great political divide, the so called " woke culture " thinking that Maths is Racist, the far right , and when it comes to education, the famous affirmative action.
This is unironically the best comment I"ve seen in here over many pages of trolling by some bored guys from Poland. The only threat to the US at the moment is the internal politics consuming it from within. The "Rise of China" is happening because of that as well ultimately. If Chinese/Russians figure out how to break the petrodollar cycle of recycling Chinese purchasing power into treasuries - things will go very quick.
Nord Stream situation is tricky right now as it's an act of war against Europe so whoever done it is in for some nasty beating. Circumstantial evidence so far points to US/Ukrainan actors. My bet goes on Seymour Hersh's version of the story of an unauthorized action by professional saboteurs so neither President/Congress had to approve it / be aware of it / can feign ignorance pretty good and those professionals can be thrown under the bus and "dissapeared" quickly if shit really hits the fan.
Real question is how to get out of this mess:
* Ukranians have suffered for more than a year now with hundreds of thousands dead, millions displaced, economy ruined and recovery perspectives unclear.
* Russian
casus belli for this war becomes more and more understood. I think they wanted a quick war a-la invasion of Panama by the US on "national security grounds" to get what they want and get out. Now Russians are cornered by sanctions / media propaganda and are fighting this not to "win" the war, but rather not to "lose the war" no matter how absurd this sounds. Russians truly cannot lose this as losing Crimea will probably not go down well internally and might potentially cause a collapse of the whole state which nobody wants. Trust me you guys in Poland dont want a failed state like Libya torn by civil war right on your border. I doubt Russians would nuke anything as this would immediately deprive them of India/China support (trade/intel/UN Security Council).
* Americans cant let Russians win as they are too deeply involved and has exposed their involvement completely. A win in Ukraine for Russians would mean that Putin won and snubbed the noses of those NATO generals despite NATO sanctions which might embolden him to challenge contested territories elsewhere (e.g. northern Kazakhstan).
I just dont see the needle moving anywhere unless some dramatic breakthrough happens in this war of attrition or another conflict elsewhere taking priority (e.g. Israel invading Iran and getting nuked).
My bet is that this will not end in 2023. If next winter will be devastating for Europe (energy scarcity/inflation) we might have a deal closer to US Elections in November 2024 as my bet is Biden will not get reelected and a Republican will win and make a deal.
Gas: Russian supplies so far have not been truly replaced and people are targeting 2026 as a realistic earliest target (new Qatar fields go online and new LNG terminals will be build / FLNGs delivered and connected to supply Germany). Reduction has been achieved through warmer than usual winter as well as demand destruction with businesses curtailing industrial production, people turning down thermostats, gas-to-oil, gas-to-coal, (gas-to-wood LOL!) switching. Solar panels/windmills will not save the industry. Nukes will not go online within 10-15 years. Funnily enough we need to keep in mind that electrification of Norway is projected to reduce amount of electricity they export to Germany from 2028 onwards which will put additional strain on their failed Energiewende policy. Oh an EC just banned ICE cars as of 2035 with not a single long-range EV truck in production yet. Elon Musk has only 12 years to produce enough trucks to save Europe from self-inflicted wounds.
What a time to be alive.
loved your comments in this thread, one of the few guys that gets it IMO.