Quote (kusotarre1 @ 5 Mar 2023 00:32)
https://i.imgur.com/cFQQxEL.pngJust absolute nonsense, directly contradicted by the simplest google search. But he read it online from some "Russia Expert", and even looking at 2018 and 2019 incomes, he'll just come back with some reason why he's actually correct and Russia is a 'gas station with nukes' or whatever.
The West's primary products are hope followed by cope. These wargames are the hope. Later comes the cope.
1. All Russian energy companies are de facto controlled by the Kremlin. Their contributions to the federal budget are determined by politics and can thus deviate from their profitability.
2. You can see from your own chart that Russian energy revenues were pretty steadily increasing year-on-year from 2009 until 2014. It makes perfect sense that the calculations for Russian war efforts in Ukraine in 2014 and beyond were based on a projection of this trend, which went out of the window in the following years. By the time the 2018/19 spike came around, any plans for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine which might have existed in 2014 had already been put on ice. And then, from early 2020, covid put the whole world on a hold.
3. Before the covid recovery boom starting in 2021, Gazprom's operating profit (rather than their contributions to Russia's federal budget) had been on a longer-term downward (or at least stagnation) trend.

4. You're completely dismissing the second part of my argument, namely that Putin's considerations were not just about the funding of his war from energy revenue, but also about the economic leverage that closing the gas tap would give him over Europe. And in this second regard, the rise of the North American fracking industry (and the sudden excess supply on the global markets that it created) definitely threw his plans off.