I am going to chip in here a tiny bit as response to you and also to .

As I am from that region, the arming , interference in Taiwanese elections to promote a " Independent nation " and the newly republican led " China house " , a new government entity created to counter China etc etc gives some sense that it is rapidly closing.
This is just the more obvious and startling evidence at the moment. But it might just be a show being acted out by both sides to escalate and de escalate.

But it wouldn't be 2025.... at least that is what I am hoping for and praying for..wait till 2030 to 2032 ...

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Mar 4 2023 01:22pm

It is far, far further away than that.

Those show that the US is on the war path, but I think what he meant is what makes one believe that the window of US technological supremacy is ending.

It's sort of pointless, though, because we're talking to people who across a broad swath of issues are in denial of reality. If you link them to things about how China graduates way more STEM students than the US, that China now publishes more and higher quality scientific papers than the US, that China's economy is much more weighted towards things that you can touch rather than overvalued service sector garbage, all you'll get is denial in response.

These people think they are the protagonists of history.

I think human beings are prone to make mistake whether is it the Americans or the Chinese.
They came pretty close during the Cuban Missile crisis and I hope the rational government people in both the US and China will make sure this doesn't happen.

Anything can happen. This can be slightly mellowed down if the Chinese open up their military channels again with the US sooner than later. It is currently closed.

Oh you are talking about an actual direct conflict? I am talking about a point in time, where China could no longer lose a war with the US.
A direct conflict is even further in the future than that time, perhaps not far.

its not that far away, probably couple decades

US tech surpemacy as stated before is dwindling, and will be gone in 20 years

China are great with patience, all they have to do is wait until there are no educated young people left

Us tech is anywhere upto to a decade ahead of pretty much anyone else; not in every field, but generally.
Also experience counts for alot, actual deployment experience.

Quantity is a quality in itself, so China definitely has that potential.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 4 2023 01:47pm

Under no Nuclear usage conditions.

Ok personally head to head. China will lose a war with the United States no doubt at least that is what I believe in the next 10 years or so or even more if they engaged directly.
And that is not just my opinion, even opinions in China believes so since I do contact with CCP officials due to my line of work.

A " land " invasion from USA which the US will not do , but if they do , the United States will lose and lose badly.

In regards of Taiwan and the first island chain , it will be a pyrrhic victory for the United States so much so that they might even give up Taiwan. But the United States will still have Japan , South Korea and Philippines ( depending who is the president. ).

This is just my personal opinion.



In regards to this issue, the same can be said about Japanese Tech as well. They were considered inferior in the 70s and 80s . As a matter of fact, the entire world in the West believes so.
But look at how far they have come. So we just have to wait and see.

The other interesting part in regards to Tech in China, let me give you an example. The US have prevented Chinese scientist and astronauts from getting involved with their space programs I believed.
They managed to make a space station after 30 years. Took them awhile , but they have managed to do it somehow. Given how fast the world is moving and how fast technology is improving , it will prove to be a huge challenge for the current No.1 military and economical power moving forward.

Hence the current conflict that both countries are facing.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Mar 4 2023 01:54pm

Not a single US thinktank believes this. Not a single person who knows anything about where Chinese tech is at believes this.

China already has technological parity with America in many fields, and even surpasses the US in several critical ones.

And unlike America, China can rapidly implement new technologies across not just the military but also the civilian sphere. I have said a few times here and will repeat: You have not experienced what it's like to live in a modern, 21st century country until you've been to a tier 1 city in China.

that won't matter in the near future - hardly anyone can do basic math anymore in the NA, while China dominate the field.

technology needs to be maintained and improved upon, or you will be overtaken