Quote (ofthevoid @ 20 Mar 2022 17:36)
Putin's best case scenario goal was to replace the western puppets for eastern puppets similarly to 2014 and have Ukrainians singing kumbaya as they are forced under Russia's sphere of influence. We can all agree that failed and it was evident it will fail within the first few days. His goal now is to never allow Ukraine to join NATO, limit their military and basically have them recognize the breakaway regions. Russia will most likely get these concessions, so to me having a bunch of Ukrainians needlessly die is pointless. Not sure what point you're waiting for, the longer this drags out the more every other city will start to look like Mariupol. Why can't we skip the deaths/destruction and just accept the outcome?
Putin's goals aren't limited to these points though, which makes your whole argument fall apart. Preferably, he wants full control over Ukraine, and if he can't get that, he wants to grab as much land as possible while leaving the rest of Ukraine as a crippled zombie state with extremely limited sovereignty. Putin cannot allow Ukraine to become a liberal democracy that's peering hard at a NATO and EU membership.
He'll obviously get Crimea, and probably also the Donbass. The rest of the territory currently occupied by the Russians is up for negotiation though. Losing its entire Black Sea coast would be crippling for Ukraine, but a huge boon for Russia. The Russians even just keeping the region around Kherson and thus controlling the waterway from the Dnieper to the Black Sea would give him a kill switch on Ukraine's economy. On the other hand, the Russians will imho absolutely insist on keeping a land connection between Russia and Crimea.
However, if his troops are able to take Kyiv, they can replace Ukraine's government with a puppet regime and seize all of Ukraine's territory, or at least most of it. The outcome of the war will also determine whether Ukraine has to accept limits on its military or not (which would leave them at the mercy of Russia going forward), whether they would be free to eventually join the EU or not, whether they would be free to enter military alliances short of full NATO membership or not, and so on.
Depending on how the war goes, the positions going into the peace negotiations can still range from "Russia only gets minimal concessions" to "Ukraine has to swallow everything the Russians dictate them". Therefore, both sides still have plenty to fight for.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 20 2022 02:29pm