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Mar 20 2022 01:55pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Mar 20 2022 07:29pm)
Not my fault if you are Romanian ok ? Quit it or i will past you "meanwhile in romania" memes

------------------------------

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2022/3/20/turkey-says-russia-ukraine-close-to-agreement

“We see that the parties are close to an agreement.”

I am skeptic but why not


your xenophobia should be targeted at the cockroaches killing assaulting torturing raping and committing pedophilia against the french ;)
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Mar 20 2022 02:01pm
Quote (ferdia @ Mar 20 2022 07:45pm)
100% will not abandon campaign. ultimately they want the strongest hand when negotiating with Ukraine. can someone link me to the relevant ISW topic /googling now /e cant find it re: "abandon campaign".


According to my sources, Russia is fortifying its positions arround Kiew and Charkiv while stepping up its effort around Mariupol and south Ukraine. They continue to encircle fortified positions by Ukrainian forces, they're gaining momentum as we write here. Any negotiating position Selenskij had is lost at this point. Putler will only accept his complete capitulation. By the way, MSM is telling us complete BS. Not lying by not giving any info and only publishing whatever Ukraine feeds them because they can't verify anything is the same as lying.

Edit: There won't be a diplomatic solution unless Nato actively intervenes. Belraus is preparing its joint attack from South (expected within 2 days).

This post was edited by babun1024 on Mar 20 2022 02:04pm
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Mar 20 2022 02:04pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 20 Mar 2022 17:36)
Putin's best case scenario goal was to replace the western puppets for eastern puppets similarly to 2014 and have Ukrainians singing kumbaya as they are forced under Russia's sphere of influence. We can all agree that failed and it was evident it will fail within the first few days. His goal now is to never allow Ukraine to join NATO, limit their military and basically have them recognize the breakaway regions. Russia will most likely get these concessions, so to me having a bunch of Ukrainians needlessly die is pointless. Not sure what point you're waiting for, the longer this drags out the more every other city will start to look like Mariupol. Why can't we skip the deaths/destruction and just accept the outcome?

Putin's goals aren't limited to these points though, which makes your whole argument fall apart. Preferably, he wants full control over Ukraine, and if he can't get that, he wants to grab as much land as possible while leaving the rest of Ukraine as a crippled zombie state with extremely limited sovereignty. Putin cannot allow Ukraine to become a liberal democracy that's peering hard at a NATO and EU membership.



He'll obviously get Crimea, and probably also the Donbass. The rest of the territory currently occupied by the Russians is up for negotiation though. Losing its entire Black Sea coast would be crippling for Ukraine, but a huge boon for Russia. The Russians even just keeping the region around Kherson and thus controlling the waterway from the Dnieper to the Black Sea would give him a kill switch on Ukraine's economy. On the other hand, the Russians will imho absolutely insist on keeping a land connection between Russia and Crimea.

However, if his troops are able to take Kyiv, they can replace Ukraine's government with a puppet regime and seize all of Ukraine's territory, or at least most of it. The outcome of the war will also determine whether Ukraine has to accept limits on its military or not (which would leave them at the mercy of Russia going forward), whether they would be free to eventually join the EU or not, whether they would be free to enter military alliances short of full NATO membership or not, and so on.



Depending on how the war goes, the positions going into the peace negotiations can still range from "Russia only gets minimal concessions" to "Ukraine has to swallow everything the Russians dictate them". Therefore, both sides still have plenty to fight for.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 20 2022 02:29pm
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Mar 20 2022 02:20pm
Quote (thundercock @ Mar 20 2022 07:08pm)
100% agree. I don't think they are going to abandon the war but the tactics and strategy desperately need to change for them to win. That's what Keep in mind, the US failed to accomplish it's military objectives several times in Iraq and it required replacing generals and strategy (remember "the surge?")


there are some good youtube video's on line re: lectures relating to US's armed forces policy of replacing generals. quite insightful, to my mind replacing generals is not always optimal and does not always equate to an improvement in morale / objectives.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 20 2022 02:21pm
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Mar 20 2022 02:26pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 20 2022 04:04pm)
Putin's goals aren't limited to these points though, which makes your whole argument fall apart. Preferably, he wants full control over Ukraine, and if he can't get that, he wants to grab as much land as possible while leaving the rest of Ukraine as a crippled zombie state with extremely limited sovereignty. Putin cannot allow Ukraine to become a liberal democracy that's peering hard at a NATO and EU membership.



He'll obviously get Crimea, and probably also the Donbass. The rest of the territory currently occupied by the Russians is up for negotiation though. Losing its entire Black Sea coast would be crippling for Ukraine, but a huge boon for Russia. The Russians even just keeping the region around Cherson and thus controlling the waterway from the Dnieper to the Black Sea would give him a kill switch on Ukraine's economy. On the other hand, the Russians will imho absolutely insist on keeping a land connection between Russia and Crimea.

However, if his troops are able to take Kyiv, they can replace Ukraine's government with a puppet regime and seize all of Ukraine's territory, or at least most of it. The outcome of the war will also determine whether Ukraine has to accept limits on its military or not (which would leave them at the mercy of Russia going forward), whether they would be free to eventually join the EU or not, whether they would be free to enter military alliances short of full NATO membership or not, and so on.



Depending on how the war goes, the positions going into the peace negotiations can still range from "Russia only gets minimal concessions" to "Ukraine has to swallow everything the Russians dictate them". Therefore, both sides still have plenty to fight for.


Yeah sorry, not buying all of this. South eastern Ukraine being broken off is realistic and expected IMO. I can see the land bridge, maybe from Kherson to the east being a demand. I think at this point it's too late to expect regime change, even if Russia takes Kiev by force most decision makers are already in Lviv or outside the country for safety concerns. I don't think seizing all of Ukraine is realistic or going to happen. You'll still have a western friendly gov't in place, I think the Russians are settled on that point now.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 20 2022 02:30pm
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Mar 20 2022 02:26pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 20 Mar 2022 20:01)
According to my sources, Russia is fortifying its positions arround Kiew and Charkiv while stepping up its effort around Mariupol and south Ukraine. They continue to encircle fortified positions by Ukrainian forces, they're gaining momentum as we write here. Any negotiating position Selenskij had is lost at this point. Putler will only accept his complete capitulation. By the way, MSM is telling us complete BS. Not lying by not giving any info and only publishing whatever Ukraine feeds them because they can't verify anything is the same as lying.

Edit: There won't be a diplomatic solution unless Nato actively intervenes. Belraus is preparing its joint attack from South (expected within 2 days).


It's progressive IMO, first sending food, then intelligence, then weapons, advanced weapons, specific people to use/teach the use of advanced weapons, international fighters, etc
But it's true Russia is about to play it really bad, especially in bombing civilians. They will have to pay for that at some point.
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Mar 20 2022 02:30pm
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Mar 20 2022 09:26pm)
It's progressive IMO, first sending food, then intelligence, then weapons, advanced weapons, specific people to use/teach the use of advanced weapons, international fighters, etc
But it's true Russia is about to play it really bad, especially in bombing civilians. They will have to pay for that at some point.

Nope, they're just bombing Mariupol for obvious reasons (Azov battalion base). BTW, half of the population in Mariupol is in fact Russians. Russians opened corridors for them to flee. Do you what media said? Russians are abducting civilians :lol: I thought they were shooting civilians dead, why abduct them? Some English speaking sources which aren't Tucker Carlson:




This post was edited by babun1024 on Mar 20 2022 02:32pm
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Mar 20 2022 02:37pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 20 Mar 2022 20:30)
Nope, they're just bombing Mariupol for obvious reasons (Azov battalion base). BTW, half of the population in Mariupol is in fact Russians. Russians opened corridors for them to flee. Do you what media said? Russians are abducting civilians :lol: I thought they were shooting civilians dead, why abduct them? Some English speaking sources which aren't Tucker Carlson:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnwRBH5jGvY


between 1,000 and 1,200 were in Mariupol theater



So peacefull infos about russia can suck it up imo
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Mar 20 2022 02:43pm
Quote (babun1024 @ 20 Mar 2022 21:30)
Nope, they're just bombing Mariupol for obvious reasons (Azov battalion base). BTW, half of the population in Mariupol is in fact Russians. Russians opened corridors for them to flee. Do you what media said? Russians are abducting civilians :lol: I thought they were shooting civilians dead, why abduct them? Some English speaking sources which aren't Tucker Carlson:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnwRBH5jGvY


Blatant lie. Russia is also bombing civilian targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Tchernihiv and Sumy.
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Mar 20 2022 02:44pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 20 2022 09:43pm)
Blatant lie. Russia is also bombing civilian targets in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Tchernihiv and Sumy.


I don't deny Russia bombing Mariupol as a whole. I am saying they just bomb Mariupol, not looking for civilian targets. They shell everything.

Edit: I got the misunderstanding. I didn't mean they bomb Azov base only, they bomb everything in Mariupol out of spite like England did with Dresden bombings.

https://www.joe.co.uk/life/mysterious-v-spotted-on-russian-war-vehicles-following-z-markings-319277
Belarus started marking their vehicles. Further clue, they'll join in soon.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Mar 20 2022 02:50pm
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