You think the US is deterred specifically by:
- potential further conscription
- a spring offensive

Lets also be correct here. Russia has been further conscripting, 2 increasingly larger rounds as I recall, because their initial invasion was unsuccessful in completing their aims.
A spring offensive happening or not is also a direct consequence of Russia failing in its objectives in 2022.

These are not potential escalations in response to the US sending further systems; They are derivatives of Russia's own actions and incomplete objectives.
I recall you and others opposing sending Leopards because of a potential Russia escalation. Yes Russia made a large missile strike soon after this announcement, but that is something they were already doing.

You were advocating not sending further systems, because of a possible Russian escalation; Now that it hasn't happened. You are somehow advocating against the next potential systems because of another implied threat.

It doesn't hold water.

At bold that is so contradictory.

In reference to negotiation. Ok, possibly. But what matters mainly will be the military situation. Which as I have said is unresolved.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 1 2023 10:31am

No, i think the US is deterred by Nuclear War.

Separately, If you look back over the topic you will note that my position is I do not advocate the escalation of war, which these tanks are, but that AT THE TIME, Russia said "no big deal re: tanks". Russia will probably have to conscript more men later in the year. This will possibly be needed to match the support (tanks etc) granted to Ukraine by the EU / Nato. While this is an escalation it is separate and distinct from WW3, but to be clear, it is not good for peace and security in the world.

YOU dont have to agree with me and YOU can say my argument holds no water. first they send weapons then they send tanks, then they send jets then they send what, ballistic missiles ? this is the concern.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2023 10:35am

Bolded I agree with.

I don't know how China would respond, it could definitely have a negative effect on relations but I don't know if it would end them.

I'm not sure NATO would be so quick to declare direct war on Russia after seeing them use a nuclear weapon, a real war between NATO and Russia ultimately leads to a nuclear confrontation, and they would have just witnessed Russias willingness to use them.

If Russia reaches a point where they feel threatened enough to use one, they will use one in my opinion, if they view the "gain" as the survival of Russia, than any loss or risk from doing so becomes more acceptable to the government.

We are a long way off from nuclear missiles and Russia would probably advertise it if they were close to it. Russia has been very clear on what it will and wont do as related to the war. They have been nothing but predictable as is easily proven. If anyone things that Russia is not predictable then they have not been paying attention.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2023 10:41am

Yes I agree, that post was in response to a hypothetical scenario though. I don't think we are close to any of that and as much as I disagree with western governments decisions in all of this, I think they are aware of the risks and will try and avoid that scenario.

I agree with the bolded as well. from a hypothetical standpoint.

if iraq could field 1-1.5million man army in 1988 with a population of 17 million, you have to be genuinely retarded if you dont think Russia can with its current production and circa 150million population.

You are living in a fantasy. It is a question of will, not ability. As for China, they can without a doubt match US production, and give 1 bullet for 1 bullet given by US.

Silly^5

The same Wagner that complains about lack of material/ammo, also says they have 0 connections to the Russian military while fielding their own SU-25s. Let me guess, they bought them from Romania

You can argue about will, not ability to field 1+million men.

This post was edited by ownyaah on Mar 1 2023 10:51am

China cant. Yet. but they will get there soon. sorry but even China is saying this. China is being very careful. it is not in a state of war, it is in a state of growth. The more time afforded to this endeavor, the better, for them, and by the end of it it will not be 1:1 ratio (noting China's population is 1.4billion and US population is 332M).