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Mar 1 2023 09:09am
Lets assume that Putin is not willing to risk a mutually assured destruction of the planet.

Can anyone describe the actions Russia would take in response to NATO supporting Ukraine with fighter jets, for example?
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Mar 1 2023 09:22am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 1 2023 03:09pm)
Lets assume that Putin is not willing to risk a mutually assured destruction of the planet.

Can anyone describe the actions Russia would take in response to NATO supporting Ukraine with fighter jets, for example?


jets are fine provided they do not enter russian air space or attack russia direct. anything the west sends, to a degree, is fine in this regard provided russia wins? i think thats the current thought that putin has. i am not a mind reader.

you are flogging a dead horse asking what action russia would take, i already said it - they would mobilise further. they will go however far down that road they have to, to win. there was a good video that i watched the other day, i will see if i can find it again. its short.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2023 09:23am
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Mar 1 2023 09:23am
Quote (ferdia @ Mar 1 2023 03:22pm)
jets are fine provided they do not enter russian air space or attack russia direct. anything the west sends, to a degree, is fine in this regard provided russia wins? i think thats the current thought that putin has. you are flogging a dead horse asking what action russia would take, i already said it - they would mobilise further.


Mobilize further. Can you elaborate? I'm assuming you mean more conscription?
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Mar 1 2023 09:24am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 1 2023 03:23pm)
Mobilize further. Can you elaborate? I'm assuming you mean more conscription?


correct.

here, this explains the current situation quite well (in my opinion) and why the China paper is worthless (by worthless i mean, not heeded by western powers as there is no credible framework to reach a settlement)



This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2023 09:34am
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Mar 1 2023 09:32am
Quote (ferdia @ Mar 1 2023 03:24pm)
correct.

here, this explains the current situation quite well (in my opinion)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_djyPEfkSI


Interesting. And do you think the west should be deterred by the implied threat of Russia conscripting further?
Is that really the only implied threat here?

Its as though people are intentionally vague about what conventional escalation there could be from Russia; I am of the belief Russia has showed its hand in Ukraine.
We've always known Russia has nukes. Its also unclear what benefit Russia would have from using nukes.


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Mar 1 2023 09:43am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Mar 1 2023 11:05am)
What benefit is there for Russia in using a nuke?
Do you think it likely?

I will search for a link, I believe it was Peter Zeihan.
Note that I said speculation. But if we are objective we can see shortcomings in the Russian army logistics during the initial invasion, and with the procurement of equipment for conscripts.
Those are not wholly down to corruption but they are solid indicators of it.


The same benefit there is for anyone who uses a nuke, massive amounts of destruction directed at your enemy.

I think the likelihood of it happening increases by the day, and sending longer range weapons would be a big step in that direction. At the moment I don't think it benefits anyone, but I could definitely imagine a scenario where Russia decides the easiest way to stop attacks on its cities is to wipe Ukraine off the map.

Do you think if Russia launched a nuke at Ukraine, the US would retaliate by nuking Russia? Which would in turn cause them and most western countries to be nuked? Not a game I'm looking to play, personally.

I'm sure there is plenty of corruption and logistical issues in the Russian military but half the defense budget for around 11 years is hard for me to believe.
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Mar 1 2023 09:45am
I thought my position over 22765 posts and a year at this, was clear. if you think i am vague, just ask direct questions and i will give you my own personal view.

What we have at the moment is a proxy war in Ukraine between the US and Russia. Now you decide at the end of this if the US or Russia won, but either way Ukrainians will not have won. I do not envisage Ukraine ever getting back the land that has been taken from them. This is not good or bad, morality has nothing to do with it, its the reality. The more Ukraine fights and resists, the more, in my opinion, they will lose land by the end of this war and the longer this goes on the more wrecked Ukraine will be. IF Ukraine comes out of this intact for sure the west will support the recovery of Ukraine (or whats left of it) which is a small silver lining, forgetting the amount of dead and displaced.

While Russia started out wanting a slice of Ukraine it may now end up being that they take all of Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of men. This is the harsh reality. If you believe that Russia can not do anything else, can not "escalate further" and are ignoring my comment where more men can be conscripted, notwithstanding the WIDELY reported spring offensive Russia is planning on, then my question is, what do you think Russia will do next ? Do you honestly believe that what is on the field is everything that Russia can put on the table? No disrespect but this seems to be quite...presumptuous.

we have all of 2023 of fighting to take place in ukraine. time will tell what happens (in 2024).

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 1 2023 09:46am
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Mar 1 2023 09:46am
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ Mar 1 2023 03:43pm)
The same benefit there is for anyone who uses a nuke, massive amounts of destruction directed at your enemy.

I think the likelihood of it happening increases by the day, and sending longer range weapons would be a big step in that direction. At the moment I don't think it benefits anyone, but I could definitely imagine a scenario where Russia decides the easiest way to stop attacks on its cities is to wipe Ukraine off the map.

Do you think if Russia launched a nuke at Ukraine, the US would retaliate by nuking Russia? Which would in turn cause them and most western countries to be nuked? Not a game I'm looking to play, personally.

I'm sure there is plenty of corruption and logistical issues in the Russian military but half the defense budget for around 11 years is hard for me to believe.


Where specifically could you see Russia targeting with a nuke?
At bold. It depends on your answer to my question.
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Mar 1 2023 09:50am
as your above is directed at someone else all i will say is , carry on.
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Mar 1 2023 09:51am
Quote (ferdia @ Mar 1 2023 03:45pm)
I thought my position over 22765 posts and a year at this, was clear. if you think i am vague, just ask direct questions and i will give you my own personal view.

What we have at the moment is a proxy war in Ukraine between the US and Russia. Now you decide at the end of this if the US or Russia won, but either way Ukrainians will not have won. I do not envisage Ukraine ever getting back the land that has been taken from them. This is not good or bad, morality has nothing to do with it, its the reality. The more Ukraine fights and resists, the more, in my opinion, they will lose land by the end of this war and the longer this goes on the more wrecked Ukraine will be. IF Ukraine comes out of this intact for sure the west will support the recovery of Ukraine (or whats left of it) which is a small silver lining, forgetting the amount of dead and displaced.

While Russia started out wanting a slice of Ukraine it may now end up being that they take all of Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of men. This is the harsh reality. If you believe that Russia can not do anything else, can not "escalate further" and are ignoring my comment where more men can be conscripted, notwithstanding the WIDELY reported spring offensive Russia is planning on, then my question is, what do you think Russia will do next ? Do you honestly believe that what is on the field is everything that Russia can put on the table? No disrespect but this seems to be quite...presumptuous.


I am repeatedly asking the question over my last few posts and getting vague answers. Such as "world war three", "lol we have nukes bro"
I'll attempt another format loosely based on your own euphemism; What else do you believe Russia can "put on the table", in Ukraine?
What conventional ability does Russia possess that it is not currently applying in Ukraine?

So far I am led to believe:
- More conscripts
- Spring offensive



This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Mar 1 2023 09:52am
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