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Mar 20 2022 10:43am
Quote (Norlander @ 20 Mar 2022 16:39)
20k is a half of their army I believe. It takes 200 flights just to bring them say to Poland. That's propaganda obviously. Video of them coming to Ukraine shows that they are no more than a dozen.


No, 20k total for all countries. The amount of Georgians is few hundreds yet i think.
It will be probably much more later IMO.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 20 2022 10:43am
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Mar 20 2022 10:46am
Russian goal (beyond Ukraine specifics) is to craft for themselves a place in the security architecture of Europe for decades to come.
They want to remake it in a way conducive to their interests while being a major partner in such a system.
Pandora's box is open, and no matter what the angry hotheads will say, this war's ramifications will not end with one side defeated.
The only way to close the box is precisely to negotiate just that.
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Mar 20 2022 10:55am
I think another angle here that no one is really talking about is the weaponization of refugees. During the Syria civil war that was an extremely effective tactic by Russia to divide the EU as many countries were forced to take in ME refugees. What was the figure? Around 1million i believe? Do you remember the amount of pushback there was and how that shaped EU politics for years?

Well, we're less than a month into this and Europe has already absorbed over 3 million Ukrainian refugees. I read some articles that countries like Czech and Poland are already struggling to cater to this influx of people. The longer this goes on, as weeks turn into months, you're going to see way more pushback from locals as local resources are depleted. I read an article that something like 17% of all people in Krakow are Ukrainian refugees.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/17/warsaws-population-has-risen-17-due-to-refugees-from-ukraine/

Many of these people will eventually look to go to places like Germany, I'm sure. Not sure how this will turn out politically over a longer period of time but it's hard to see how Europe won't struggle with such an influx of people when many of these economies are already struggling due to massive inflationary price hikes.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 20 2022 10:57am
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Mar 20 2022 10:59am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 20 2022 11:55am)
I think another angle here that no one is really talking about is the weaponization of refugees. During the Syria civil war that was an extremely effective tactic by Russia to divide the EU as many countries were forced to take in ME refugees. What was the figure? Around 1million i believe? Do you remember the amount of pushback there was and how that shaped EU politics for years?

Well, we're less than a month into this and Europe has already absorbed over 3 million Ukrainian refugees. I read some articles that countries like Czech and Poland are already struggling to cater to this influx of people. The longer this goes on, as weeks turn into months, you're going to see way more pushback from locals as local resources are depleted. I read an article that something like 17% of all people in Krakow is a Ukrainian refugee.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/03/17/warsaws-population-has-risen-17-due-to-refugees-from-ukraine/

Many of these people will eventually look to go to places like Germany, I'm sure. Not sure how this will turn out politically over a longer period of time but it's hard to see how Europe won't struggle with such an influx of people when many of these economies are already struggling due to massive inflationary price hikes.


Speaking of refugees, it's been really funny how thinly coded the racism has been. Lots of news anchors saying "they look like us, they're not from Syria". Like, barely hiding it.

Refugees may become a big issue for absorption, but the tolerance for refugees will be much higher for Ukrainians than it will be for Syrians because Ukrainians are considered white. Lots of reports as well of black Ukrainians being refused or hassled while they let white Ukrainians through.

I predict that even given equal socioeconomic status the resettled black Ukrainians will fare much worse than their white counterparts. I don't think that's a controversial opinion.
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Mar 20 2022 11:03am
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Mar 20 2022 12:59pm)
Speaking of refugees, it's been really funny how thinly coded the racism has been. Lots of news anchors saying "they look like us, they're not from Syria". Like, barely hiding it.

Refugees may become a big issue for absorption, but the tolerance for refugees will be much higher for Ukrainians than it will be for Syrians because Ukrainians are considered white. Lots of reports as well of black Ukrainians being refused or hassled while they let white Ukrainians through.

I predict that even given equal socioeconomic status the resettled black Ukrainians will fare much worse than their white counterparts. I don't think that's a controversial opinion.


Black Ukrainians is not really a thing lol, that's unicorn status. Most eastern European countries are fairly homogenous. I mean I guess some have sizeable neighboring populations but black Ukrainians is not really a thing.
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Mar 20 2022 11:13am
Quote (ofthevoid @ 20 Mar 2022 20:03)
Black Ukrainians is not really a thing lol, that's unicorn status. Most eastern European countries are fairly homogenous. I mean I guess some have sizeable neighboring populations but black Ukrainians is not really a thing.


Their lives still matter
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Mar 20 2022 11:15am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 20 2022 12:03pm)
Black Ukrainians is not really a thing lol, that's unicorn status. Most eastern European countries are fairly homogenous. I mean I guess some have sizeable neighboring populations but black Ukrainians is not really a thing.


This just perfectly highlights how bad you are at basic statistical thought. Even if they are a small minority a small minority in a country of 50 million is still a sizeable population. It's not like there's one black family in the whole country dude.
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Mar 20 2022 11:23am
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ 20 Mar 2022 20:15)
This just perfectly highlights how bad you are at basic statistical thought. Even if they are a small minority a small minority in a country of 50 million is still a sizeable population. It's not like there's one black family in the whole country dude.


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afro-Ukrainians

Locals use n-word and call them black. Wikipedia says it's not offensive. No, it actually is.
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Mar 20 2022 11:24am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 20 2022 06:55pm)
What was the figure? Around 1million i believe?


Much more than 1 million.

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Mar 20 2022 11:28am
Quote (Norlander @ Mar 20 2022 12:13pm)
Their lives still matter


Nope.
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