Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 10:28am)
True.
It isn't dangerous to say that appeasement is a bad strategy.
Very debatable what your suggesting about casting off the Donbass; There was little pushback for the annexation of Crimea, and now there is a broader conflict.
We are already seeing reports of Russian instigated unrest in Moldova.
The cost of aggression has to be higher for Russia or other aggressive states to deter this situation from happening.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 22 2023 10:30am)
Would Russia have been satisfied with the Donbass, or with the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine? I genuinely don't know. What we do know is that at the start of this war, Russia didn't focus its efforts on securing said regions, they went for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa instead. Also, given the frequency with which Russia is kidnapping children and people from the occupied regions, would they have accepted to a population swap? Would they have let the pro-Ukraine or pro-West residents of the Donbass leave? Would the government in Kyiv have allowed pro-Russian folks from their territory to move to the Donbass? Such a "peaceful separation" is imho a lot more complicated than it sounds at first.
Russia's overarching campaign aim is to subsume Belarus and Ukraine into the Union State. Russia annexed Crimea directly because it was strategically critical, majority Russian, geographically isolated piece of land. They didn't try to annex the Donbass initially (2014), because the goal was to influence Ukrainian domestic politics via Minsk II, which required that the Donbass remain part of Ukraine. Had they simply carved out the Donbass, they would have lost leverage over the Ukrainian situation, and the prospect of future armed intervention would become a much harder sell. It was only when the prospect of enforcing Minsk II had collapsed that Russia escalated the conflict into a full-out war, swung for the fences and tried to seize Kyiv as a home run. Had they been successful, the goal was no doubt to prop up a Ukrainian Lukashenko and road map Ukraine down the Belarussian path.
The goal off casting off the Donbass isn't to appease Russia, but to reduce Russian influence over the rest of Ukraine. And rather that relying on Russia's natural goodwill, the rationale behind signing away the Donbass is rooted in an understanding of Russia as an aggressive, irredentist power.