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Feb 22 2023 10:02am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 03:53pm)
You said it was on record. Just link the record.


Google it, you know i cant post links, if you want I can post some headlines that you can google to help you locate them. I cant believe you are asking for this, this has been the mantra for over a year : Do not negotiate.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 22 2023 10:05am
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Feb 22 2023 10:02am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 10:28am)
True.
It isn't dangerous to say that appeasement is a bad strategy.
Very debatable what your suggesting about casting off the Donbass; There was little pushback for the annexation of Crimea, and now there is a broader conflict.

We are already seeing reports of Russian instigated unrest in Moldova.

The cost of aggression has to be higher for Russia or other aggressive states to deter this situation from happening.


Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 22 2023 10:30am)
Would Russia have been satisfied with the Donbass, or with the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine? I genuinely don't know. What we do know is that at the start of this war, Russia didn't focus its efforts on securing said regions, they went for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa instead. Also, given the frequency with which Russia is kidnapping children and people from the occupied regions, would they have accepted to a population swap? Would they have let the pro-Ukraine or pro-West residents of the Donbass leave? Would the government in Kyiv have allowed pro-Russian folks from their territory to move to the Donbass? Such a "peaceful separation" is imho a lot more complicated than it sounds at first.


Russia's overarching campaign aim is to subsume Belarus and Ukraine into the Union State. Russia annexed Crimea directly because it was strategically critical, majority Russian, geographically isolated piece of land. They didn't try to annex the Donbass initially (2014), because the goal was to influence Ukrainian domestic politics via Minsk II, which required that the Donbass remain part of Ukraine. Had they simply carved out the Donbass, they would have lost leverage over the Ukrainian situation, and the prospect of future armed intervention would become a much harder sell. It was only when the prospect of enforcing Minsk II had collapsed that Russia escalated the conflict into a full-out war, swung for the fences and tried to seize Kyiv as a home run. Had they been successful, the goal was no doubt to prop up a Ukrainian Lukashenko and road map Ukraine down the Belarussian path.

The goal off casting off the Donbass isn't to appease Russia, but to reduce Russian influence over the rest of Ukraine. And rather that relying on Russia's natural goodwill, the rationale behind signing away the Donbass is rooted in an understanding of Russia as an aggressive, irredentist power.
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Feb 22 2023 10:05am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 04:02pm)
Google it, you know i cant post links, if you want I can post some headlines that you can google to help you locate them. I cant believe you are asking for this, this has been the mantra for over a year.


I've looked it up before. You are misinformed in your belief of it being "on record".

I insist you do your own research.

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Feb 22 2023 10:13am
heh anyone remember a few years back when the smart folks were pointing out that nord stream 2 was a means for Russia to remove the last leverage that Ukraine held as a pipeline transit to keep Russia aggression at bay? And the neoliberal consensus at the time was that nord stream was a positive good for global trade, german reliance on russian energy did not compromise the EU and there's no way Russia would ever dream of invading Ukraine.

I like looking up old think tank pieces from ancient times;
https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/08/12/opposition-to-nord-stream-2-makes-no-sense-for-america-or-europe-pub-77038

Quote
Nord Stream 2’s fiercest opponents, however, are in Europe. Ukraine stands to lose as much as $3bn annually in pipeline transit fees it earns for allowing Russian gas to move uninterrupted across its territory. It is a rare example of Ukraine’s economic leverage. Officials have decried Nord Stream 2 as a geopolitical project that will make the country more vulnerable to its eastern neighbour. Since 2014, Ukraine has tried to reduce its own purchases of Russian gas, but by protecting its transit income at the same time, Kiev is trapping itself in the relationship with Russia it says it wants to escape.

Poland too has long opposed Nord Stream pipelines. In 2006, then-Polish defence minister Radoslaw Sikorski likened the first Nord Stream pipeline to the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact. The current head of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, known for his anti-German and anti-Russian views, is reluctant to trust either country with Poland’s energy security. Warsaw worries Nord Stream 2 will undermine its own plans for an LNG terminal and gas pipeline from Norway.

Yet fears of Russian domination through gas sales ignore the experience of earlier pipeline projects. Nord Stream 1 did not diminish Germany’s response to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. And the pipeline from Siberia to Europe did not save the Soviet Union, despite the Reagan administration’s warnings it would increase Soviet military might.

The most bizarre aspect of the Nord Stream 2 opposition, however, is its anti-German quality. The notion that the interests of Ukraine or Poland, with its increasingly nationalist politics, should take precedence over Germany’s is hard to accept. Without German leadership, the EU will find it hard to remain committed to its founding values, including protecting Ukraine and Poland from Russian pressure. Undercutting Germany, whether over a pipeline whose significance is vastly exaggerated, or over ephemeral trade deals, makes little strategic sense for either the EU or US.


"and then the US blew it up"

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Feb 22 2023 10:18am
Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 22 2023 04:13pm)
heh anyone remember a few years back when the smart folks were pointing out that nord stream 2 was a means for Russia to remove the last leverage that Ukraine held as a pipeline transit to keep Russia aggression at bay? And the neoliberal consensus at the time was that nord stream was a positive good for global trade, german reliance on russian energy did not compromise the EU and there's no way Russia would ever dream of invading Ukraine.

I like looking up old think tank pieces from ancient times;
https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/08/12/opposition-to-nord-stream-2-makes-no-sense-for-america-or-europe-pub-77038



"and then the US blew it up"


do you have a record for that anywhere ? :rolleyes:
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Feb 22 2023 10:20am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 10:18am)
do you have a record for that anywhere ? :rolleyes:


naw I just type it into google with the date range option sometimes. Although google's interface really sucks at it whenever its a topical issue where you get pages that were indexed with those search terms years ago but update their content topically to deceive the robots, so you type in something about balloons circa 2015 and instead get 50 articles about chinese balloons from last week.
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Feb 22 2023 10:22am
A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. - Hume
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Feb 22 2023 10:27am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 04:22pm)
A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence. - Hume


yea but when publishers from across the globe give you jigsaw pieces it should not be hard come to a balanced judgement. It is a fact that there was a draft peace deal on the table. That draft was posted here last year. It is a fact that Boris went to Ukraine at the time. individuals in the Ukrainian government have provided information to the effect that Boris told them it was a mistake to negotiate with Putin. what more do you want ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 22 2023 10:30am
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Feb 22 2023 10:29am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 04:27pm)
yea but when publishers from across the globe give you jigsaw pieces it should not be hard come to a balanced judgement. It is a fact that there was a draft peace deal on the table. That draft was posted here last year. It is a fact that Boris went to Ukraine at the time. individuals in the ukrainian governemnt have provided information to the effect that Boris told them it was a mistake to negotiate with Putin. what more do you want ?


Evidence.
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Feb 22 2023 10:31am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 04:29pm)
Evidence.


to what purpose ? If i get some diplomatic transcript or call or recording, will you then turn around and say "well putin is a dictator anyway, you cant reason with that type of person, he only understands power".

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 22 2023 10:32am
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