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Feb 22 2023 09:36am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 09:07am)
I honestly do not think that the US will allow China to mediate a peace deal, therefore (and I could be wrong) there will be no peace deal. The US will mirror Ukrainian demands - all of Ukraine (including crimea), Russia, out, reparations and the removal of Putin. Russia will not say yes to this. China mediating a peace deal would be worse for the US than Russia winning the war, as it would be recognition from the Greatest superpower on the planet that it erred and that it could not fix the war, and that there was another Super Power capable. To my mind this will only make the US double down and extend the war longer.


The war has to end, eventually. Even the prolonged afghan and iraq and syrian wars all ended, all in complete blowouts to US demands and conditions. Will Russia continue to grapple with Ukraine for a decade? Quite possibly. But will Ukraine seize control of the separatist regions and drive out Russia? Nope. So either we've got a prolonged crisis that pits nuclear powers against each other, or we've got to find a mediated peace, and China were already the obvious candidates for that before they formally declared they would be, and once they start throwing their weight around even the US can't keep up its warmongering position indefinitely.

There's a lot about this conflict that's reflecting America's dwindling geopolitical hegemony and the ascendancy of China. At some point we're just going to have to recognize that as a fact instead of trying desperately to deny it until the bitter end. Maybe if the US started acting in our own rational self interests instead of pursuing a self-defeating foreign policy that has aided China at every turn, we wouldn't be here. Spilt milk
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Feb 22 2023 09:36am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 03:31pm)
what record? I refer you to Boris Johnston. This point was discussed in the topic previously. last year Boris helped scupper the deal on the table between Ukraine and Russia.



i dont think so. i think either way they would not want(read: accept) Ukraine in Nato.


You said it was on record? In my own research I found that Boris Johnsons visit to Ukraine was around the time the negotiations broke down, and the news articles suggested it was down to him.

I didn't see anything "on the record"
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Feb 22 2023 09:38am
Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 22 2023 03:36pm)
The war has to end, eventually. Even the prolonged afghan and iraq and syrian wars all ended, all in complete blowouts to US demands and conditions. Will Russia continue to grapple with Ukraine for a decade? Quite possibly. But will Ukraine seize control of the separatist regions and drive out Russia? Nope. So either we've got a prolonged crisis that pits nuclear powers against each other, or we've got to find a mediated peace, and China were already the obvious candidates for that before they formally declared they would be, and once they start throwing their weight around even the US can't keep up its warmongering position indefinitely.

There's a lot about this conflict that's reflecting America's dwindling geopolitical hegemony and the ascendancy of China. At some point we're just going to have to recognize that as a fact instead of trying desperately to deny it until the bitter end. Maybe if the US started acting in our own rational self interests instead of pursuing a self-defeating foreign policy that has aided China at every turn, we wouldn't be here. Spilt milk


The more depressing scenario is that there is no one left in Ukraine to fight, and Russia simply swallows the entire country, or whats left of it. I linked the Tom Hanks movie "Charlie Wilson's War" a few months ago in the topic. That to my mind is the US Strategy / Goal here, and it would work if the country in question was any other country then Ukraine.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 03:36pm)
You said it was on record? In my own research I found that Boris Johnsons visit to Ukraine was around the time the negotiations broke down, and the news articles suggested it was down to him.

I didn't see anything "on the record"


are you seriously of the view that England and the US had no part in the abandoned peace talks last year ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 22 2023 09:39am
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Feb 22 2023 09:38am
Quote (ferdia @ 22 Feb 2023 16:25)
China, in interviews, acknowledged Russia's security concerns, and being delicate now, we have already spoken of a scenario of what would happen if a country in the western hemisphere allied with Russia or China (the US would invade them). In terms of what China will or wont do, it was made clear in that 10 minute 2023 Munich conference speech which I referred to earlier. i.e. they will seek for the parties involved to sit down and talk and try through diplomatic channels, rather then from the barrel of a gun, to find a compromise solution. You already know the Ukrainian response to this (we will not negotiate) and that England is on record as advising them not to negotiate and I would be positive the US position is the same.

ergo, the China trip is as you said, giving legitimacy to one of the parties. I wonder if China will also visit Ukraine and the US? to be quite frank regardless of anyones views on China, they are trying to find a peaceful solution.


Han CCP have not produced any peace plan or document. Their behaviour is logic: occupying the free space to take ground, diplomatically, and economically in deepening and intensifying the economic ties with the gas station.

That's it: Profits. And indirectly helping the gulag regime in oppressing the Ukrainian people, ofc. Yet Russian Isolation is an opportunity for them. It's all bad.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Feb 22 2023 09:53am
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Feb 22 2023 09:40am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 22 2023 09:30am)
Would Russia have been satisfied with the Donbass, or with the Russian-speaking provinces of Ukraine? I genuinely don't know. What we do know is that at the start of this war, Russia didn't focus its efforts on securing said regions, they went for Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa instead. Also, given the frequency with which Russia is kidnapping children and people from the occupied regions, would they have accepted to a population swap? Would they have let the pro-Ukraine or pro-West residents of the Donbass leave? Would the government in Kyiv have allowed pro-Russian folks from their territory to move to the Donbass? Such a "peaceful separation" is imho a lot more complicated than it sounds at first.


well, so has been every separatist war in living memory eh? Whether its the south sudanese or pakistan or kosovo or wherever, population swaps and border rules and control of contested regions has always been a mess, often with the finer details left unresolved even after the larger peace is achieved. If the world powers and UN were actually interested in saving lives and peacekeeping, they'd be able to help sort out the aftermath. But fat chance of that while Joe Biden is doing his rounds rallying for his proxy war
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Feb 22 2023 09:41am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 03:38pm)
The more depressing scenario is that there is no one left in Ukraine to fight, and Russia simply swallows the entire country, or whats left of it. I linked the Tom Hanks movie "Charlie Wilson's War" a few months ago in the topic. That to my mind is the US Strategy / Goal here, and it would work if the country in question was any other country then Ukraine.



are you seriously of the view that England and the US had no part in the abandoned peace talks last year ?


Are you of the view they were? You said it was "on record"?
If it is then there is no discussion, you are just correct.

What record?

Its the same as this assertion that the US is to blame for NS2. It makes perfect sense in theory, yet there isn't a shred of evidence that isn't anecdotal.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Feb 22 2023 09:42am
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Feb 22 2023 09:44am
Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 22 2023 03:40pm)
well, so has been every separatist war in living memory eh? Whether its the south sudanese or pakistan or kosovo or wherever, population swaps and border rules and control of contested regions has always been a mess, often with the finer details left unresolved even after the larger peace is achieved. If the world powers and UN were actually interested in saving lives and peacekeeping, they'd be able to help sort out the aftermath. But fat chance of that while Joe Biden is doing his rounds rallying for his proxy war


I mentioned this before - I watched a video about Russia and China recently where it was commented that when Putin came into power there were over 8500 disputes relating to contested land between Russia and China and that today there are only 7 contested disputes. This to my mind is a great achievement (albeit on the far side of the world). That to my mind is the definition of opposing ideologies getting on.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Feb 22 2023 03:41pm)
Are you of the view they were? You said it was "on record"?
If it is then there is no discussion, you are just correct.

What record?

Its the same as this assertion that the US is to blame for NS2. It makes perfect sense in theory, yet there isn't a shred of evidence that isn't anecdotal.


if I gave you a document signed in blood you would still dispute it i think?

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 22 2023 09:45am
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Feb 22 2023 09:44am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 09:38am)
The more depressing scenario is that there is no one left in Ukraine to fight, and Russia simply swallows the entire country, or whats left of it. I linked the Tom Hanks movie "Charlie Wilson's War" a few months ago in the topic. That to my mind is the US Strategy / Goal here, and it would work if the country in question was any other country then Ukraine.


that's imaginable but I think after a year of conflict and with precedents in other wars like Syria that's not going to happen without some true weapons of mass destruction being deployed, not necessarily nuclear but at least gas or bioweapons. Look how the Houthis and Sunnis still held on in their respective wars after a decade of barrel bombing. At least unlike other protracted wars, Russia does clearly have the tools available to actually massacre an entire population, they're just choosing not to use them. And like those wars, the populations in eastern ukraine remain deeply opposed along ideological and ethnic grounds that preclude the kind of rapid collapse we saw in a country like afghanistan. Which is a good counter example, where the US war effort was only drummed up among the population by bribery and coercion, and as soon as the rug was pulled out the people had no reason to want to keep fighting, so they simply all laid down their arms and the war ended. That's clearly not going to happen in Ukraine at this point, not in regions which were already adamantly pro-EU prior to the euromaidan
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Feb 22 2023 09:53am
Quote (ferdia @ Feb 22 2023 03:44pm)
I mentioned this before - I watched a video about Russia and China recently where it was commented that when Putin came into power there were over 8500 disputes relating to contested land between Russia and China and that today there are only 7 contested disputes. This to my mind is a great achievement (albeit on the far side of the world). That to my mind is the definition of opposing ideologies getting on.



if I gave you a document signed in blood you would still dispute it i think?


You said it was on record. Just link the record.
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Feb 22 2023 10:00am
Quote (bogie160 @ Feb 22 2023 03:12pm)
Why would Poland and the Baltics want to join a defensive alliance? Do you want to parse that out for us?


We're talking about Ukraine (Crimea, Sevastopol, naval base) and the point is that Russia won't allow their naval base falling into the hands of NATO just like that. What would the US do if it were in Russia's position?

This is no longer a defensive military alliance, this is 100% aggression.


Quote (Black XistenZ @ Feb 22 2023 04:22pm)
Dude, I was talking about the fact that there was ongoing military conflict in Ukraine's eastern provinces, plus territorial disputes regarding Crimea. According to NATO statutes, a country involved in ongoing military conflict or territorial disputes is literally ineligible. That is why Ukraine joining NATO was not realistically up for debate anytime soon - an argument which did not apply to any of the other Eastern European countries which joined NATO throughout the 90s and 2000s.

By creating a frozen conflict in the Donbass in 2014, a conflict that he could turn hot again at any moment, Putin had already achieved the goal of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Which again goes to show that the whole "NATO eastern expansion" argument is just a fig leaf for Russia's imperialist ambitions.


And WHY was there conflict in 2014, could it have something to do with the 2008 NATO Bucharest summit :rolleyes:

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