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Feb 21 2023 11:10am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 12:55pm)
If they don't sell it , it will harm China even more.
The three major holders of US Debt in the World is China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

You should see what is happening now. Japan was selling her US Debt until recently when they are being coerced to buy back some.


When did Japan stop selling it? If you know

This post was edited by DizzyBusiness on Feb 21 2023 11:12am
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Feb 21 2023 11:13am
Quote (DizzyBusiness @ 22 Feb 2023 01:07)
Their foreign policy has seemed backwards for decades now, I'm sure there is more going on than I'm aware of but they seem to be playing checkers while China is playing chess.

My assumption is that they already considered Russia as more aligned with China so they view the current conflict as a chance to weaken and destabilize Russia to a point where they can be largely ignored or even used against China.

Whatever the case, there seems to be a lot more at play than just concern for Ukraines sovereignty lol


Russia , Afghanistan and Middle East ( Saudi , UAE etc etc ) are the main obstacle for Belt and Road. The Sea route is pretty much controlled by the US. From the Taiwan Straits ( previously ) , Straits of Malacca, South Indian Ocean ( Diego Garcia ) all the way up to the Suez.
Basically with all these foreign policy and American Adventurism in the Middle East , and now Ukraine. You open up the land doorway for China for Belt and Road.

Putin refused Chinese " investment and infrastructure " influence in Central Asia until last year.


Quote (DizzyBusiness @ 22 Feb 2023 01:10)
When did Japan stop selling it? If you know


They increased US Treasuries after a sell off late last year this January.

Another seller of US Treasury is the UK.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Feb 21 2023 11:15am
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Feb 21 2023 11:20am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 04:55pm)
If they don't sell it , it will harm China even more.
The three major holders of US Debt in the World is China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

You should see what is happening now. Japan was selling her US Debt until recently when they are being coerced to buy back some.


That's simply not true. Unless you predict the US will default on its debt?

Just a couple of points that describe the status quo,
"A country like China, which saves more than it invests domestically, is typically an international lender.
To avoid inflation, the Chinese central bank removes this incoming foreign currency by purchasing foreign assets"

"The biggest effect of a broad scale dump of US Treasuries by China would be that China would actually export fewer goods to the United States."

Dumping US bonds would damage China much more than it would damage the US. US bonds are desirable commodities, and will remain so; They would be purchased by someone else.

Especially because if China drops 1 trillion dollars of bonds on the market, the price of those would be less than what China paid.




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Feb 21 2023 11:22am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 22 Feb 2023 01:20)
That's simply not true. Unless you predict the US will default on its debt?

Just a couple of points that describe the status quo,
"A country like China, which saves more than it invests domestically, is typically an international lender.
To avoid inflation, the Chinese central bank removes this incoming foreign currency by purchasing foreign assets"

"The biggest effect of a broad scale dump of US Treasuries by China would be that China would actually export fewer goods to the United States."

Dumping US bonds would damage China much more than it would damage the US. US bonds are desirable commodities, and will remain so; They would be purchased by someone else.

Especially because if China drops 1 trillion dollars of bonds on the market, the price of those would be less than what China paid.


What do you think will happen if China decides to do reunification in 2030.

If US Bonds is so desirable at the moment.

Why did Yellen bugged Yi Gang ( China's previous Central Bank czar ) to buy more and not to sell off
Why did Yellen meet up with Liu He in Davos even though she is not supposed to be there to talk about US debt selling.
And now Blinken to Wang Yi in Munich.

Just let the Chinese do what they want and others will come in and buy. No big deal.. Screw the Chinese if they want to sell.

B)

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Feb 21 2023 11:25am
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Feb 21 2023 11:23am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 01:13pm)
Russia , Afghanistan and Middle East ( Saudi , UAE etc etc ) are the main obstacle for Belt and Road. The Sea route is pretty much controlled by the US. From the Taiwan Straits ( previously ) , Straits of Malacca, South Indian Ocean ( Diego Garcia ) all the way up to the Suez.
Basically with all these foreign policy and American Adventurism in the Middle East , and now Ukraine. You open up the land doorway for China for Belt and Road.

Putin refused Chinese " investment and infrastructure " influence in Central Asia until last year.


They increased US Treasuries after a sell off late last year this January.

Another seller of US Treasury is the UK.


Ah I see, makes sense looking at a map.


And regarding Japan, seems somewhat coincidental that they had a sudden change in leadership after selling off US treasuries :ph34r:




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Feb 21 2023 11:25am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 05:22pm)
What do you think will happen if China decides to do reunification in 2030.


The US dollar will still be the global currency, and will continue to be for all of our lifetimes.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Feb 21 2023 11:26am
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Feb 21 2023 11:26am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 11:21am)
China no money..... at least from the government perspective. Like the Americans, they are making a significant mistake. Over Stretching. But they have no choice, this is the best time to do it in their point of view because of the Ukraine / Russia war.

Not my government.
Me from Singapore :lol:

The Chinese government is going to sell off a lot of American Debt by the way. On one hand the United States is trying to screw the Chinese over , but on the other hand they are bugging the Chinese to increase their debt buying and not decreasing.
Yellen have been " begging " Chinese not to sell off American Debt.

One might think that Blinken's meeting in Munich is all about Ukraine / Human Rights / Supply Chain / Business practices etc etc ...
No.... the main thing is China US Debt selling. That is the most or one of the most important issue...


One of the biggest negative side effects for the US of this war coupled with the Covid era money printing is the unprecedented damage we've done to the dollar. Countries all over the globe are diversifying away from the dollar. The enemies and those that maybe fear us are diversifying away because it's obvious we are willing to use the dollar as an economic battering ram, so naturally countries like China will reduce their US treasury purchases.

What's more interesting though is how some of our top friends are responding.

Quote
Total Treasury holdings in Japan — the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasurys securities, ahead of China and the U.K. — fell 18.5% year over year in November to $1.082 trillion as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes increased hedging costs for foreign investors.


https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/japanese-investors-poised-to-back-further-away-from-us-treasury-market-74097916

Japan has it's internal issues, trying their hardest to maintain yield curve control and not have the Yen collapse, so that's the primary reason they are rolling off our treasuries which is different compared to China but the effects are the same, less demand for US debt. That trend has somewhat reversed recently as our yields are becoming attractive but IMO going forward, don't think foreign countries will be piling on to gobble our debt as before.

Personally i think what's happening with the money is a much truer compass to piece together global events.
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Feb 21 2023 11:26am
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 22 Feb 2023 01:25)
The US dollar will still be the global currency, and will continue to be for our lifetime.


I am not talking about the US Dollar.

What do you think will happen to China if she does reunification.
What will happen to Chinese overseas asset, civilian or government.
And her US Treasuries, bonds etc etc

Quote (ofthevoid @ 22 Feb 2023 01:26)
One of the biggest negative side effects for the US of this war coupled with the Covid era money printing is the unprecedented damage we've done to the dollar. Countries all over the globe are diversifying away from the dollar. The enemies and those that maybe fear us are diversifying away because it's obvious we are willing to use the dollar as an economic battering ram, so naturally countries like China will reduce their US treasury purchases.

What's more interesting though is how some of our top friends are responding.



https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/japanese-investors-poised-to-back-further-away-from-us-treasury-market-74097916

Japan has it's internal issues, trying their hardest to maintain yield curve control and not have the Yen collapse, so that's the primary reason they are rolling off our treasuries which is different compared to China but the effects are the same, less demand for US debt. That trend has somewhat reversed recently as our yields are becoming attractive but IMO going forward, don't think foreign countries will be piling on to gobble our debt as before.

Personally i think what's happening with the money is a much truer compass to piece together global events.


Thank you, Yes a lot of dudes in the Mid East is also trying to diversify away from the dollar. Too risky.....
Saudi will try really hard.. :lol:

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Feb 21 2023 11:28am
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Feb 21 2023 11:40am
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 05:26pm)
I am not talking about the US Dollar.

What do you think will happen to China if she does reunification.
What will happen to Chinese overseas asset, civilian or government.
And her US Treasuries, bonds etc etc



Thank you, Yes a lot of dudes in the Mid East is also trying to diversify away from the dollar. Too risky.....
Saudi will try really hard.. :lol:


What?
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Feb 21 2023 01:04pm
Quote (Hamsterbaby @ Feb 21 2023 06:56am)
I moved about xxx million Euro of worth of RMB out for the past few months for clients because they are trying to avoid such situations which is extremely unfair, they feel they shouldn't pay in such a brazen manner for the incompetence of the previous ruling leaders.

Sound more like people are pissed that the govt doesn't have a statute of limitations for tax fraud and avoidance.

If I lie on my taxes, the CRA here in Canada they will order me to pay it back with interest and a fine. It's just a normal thing that countries do lol.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Feb 21 2023 01:04pm
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