if having viewed the relevant material relating to seymour hersh, as well as the events around Nord Stream 2, how confident would you be that Russia blew up the pipeline?

I haven't viewed any of that material.
Viewed some now. Honestly Hersh sounds like a great storyteller; He almost has inside out knowledge of the operation he say's happened.
I think we don't know for certain. Anyone who says they know for certain is basing that on anecdotal evidence.

So I would not be confident that Russia blew up NS2, as I would not be confident the US blew up NS2.

There's going to be some 3rd party mediation and its not a long list of candidates. China definitely has the position, the leverage, the straddling of east and west. Wang Yi is in Moscow right now, possibly laying the groundwork for Xi himself, its not like China is playing at being an island. If not China, who?



Its hard to understand just how much long term damage we're doing to the US dollar as a reserve currency and petrodollar. We weaponized the banking system and now the rest of the world is setting up their own insulated trade channels, right into China's lap and the long term dominance of the RMB. So we're printing money and suffering inflation and losing control of global energy and food supplies, and when the dust settles what will we have gained? Ukraine was the poorest country in Europe, but it was east Ukraine that held the valuable resources and development and population, we're not just getting the worthless half, we're getting it after its been reduced to smoking ruins. And flooded with weaponry that would make the Taliban and ISIS blush. The EU didn't want Ukraine as a member state to begin with, not out of geopolitical deference to Russia, but because it was a liability for a resource strapped faltering pan-continental socialism. And thanks to the war, they're getting fucked even harder on food and energy.

If we look only at land and borders like its a chessboard, Russia has definitely lost its position since 2013. But what the US is losing is far worse.
and the real benefit of the zero sum system, of course, goes to China. Which is probably why they aren't in too much of a hurry to pressure a cease-fire in Ukraine

I don't disagree that China serves to gain the most from the current situation.
I'm not convinced the US is losing control of global energy and food supplies; I do agree that these supply chains will shape the future of geo-politics.

While I agree with the inflation comment, and also see the futility in the current global economic structure; That structure is still the current status-quo, and that effects China as much as anyone.
China is no less exposed than the US or others to for example, a potential "collapse" of the dollar. Not to mention the US dollar is backed by the US military, as vice versa. Thats not a simple lock to pick for any emerging superpower. At least not quickly.

So MacGregor conspiracist is right and Ukraine will be destroyed, but you don't know when. Okay, noted. (I think you said it was in a matter of months previously)



Doing military and even geo-political comparisons with 210 years ago... Why not. Till you are not losing ground with reality...
Russian amy has been completely overestimated IMO, but well this is only the opinion of almost everyone (even russians who are not getting ass-bashed by kremlin gross propaganda).

=> Ukraine uses alot of amunition right now and will need more: The West wich represents dozens of times Russia's industry will probably quickly resolve it (and it hope: DEFINITELY)
- By building new lines / capacity.
- By providing stocks in emergency (if it's THAT an emergency)



I have read the article which is coming iteself from a fantastic external source.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/

Btw i would remind your comparison in-between American Indians and Russians ... It was definitely weird you know ? Good luck.

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Feb 16 2023 07:35am

china has no position or leverage. it has to be the US. if china brokered peace in ukraine it would be an even greater loss then losing the war itself for the US. It would be a major PR disaster. The US can not (and should not for its own selfish interests) countenance China being the broker for peace in Ukraine.

If the US was a benevolent entity having China being the broker for peace would be an altruistic and noble move. foolhardy, but the notion of mankind aspiring to rise above nationalist supremacy is noble. But we dont live in a fairy tale, noble and honest world. The US is positioning a war with China in our lifetime, so honestly, forget about China being involved in serious peace talks with the US, over the war in Ukraine (Biden's war / Putins war, a special operation, whatever you want to call it), the US will determine when this war will end and no one else will (other then Ukraine).

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 16 2023 07:59am

The same US military power that backs the dollar is what's being eroded as we 'lose' in Ukraine. Its just a fact that all the world outside NATO- the KSA, India, China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, etc etc- are setting up energy markets that trade outside the control of US banking. They're setting up BRICS and CIPS, the Saudis are openly talking about trading oil for other currencies, its not a looming distant threat on the horizon anymore, its at our doorstep. And we're completely failing at dissuading the unaligned world, you don't see India bowing to the whims of western imperialists anymore.

There's plenty of room between "losing our global hegemony" and "collapse of the US dollar", I don't think its anywhere near that degree of catastrophe. But a few decades ago, us losing the global energy market itself was also unthinkable.

The US military power is not eroding sir.

agreed.

US lost influence in last 2 decades but didn't stop its health- care-to-weapons-conversion budget, for sure.
But maybe that's what Goonshill was talking about.

/E fixed the typos.

----------------

Wagner Chief Says Russia's 'Monstrous Bureacracy' Impeding Ukraine Fight

I guess it's not false quotes:

"I think it's (going to be in) March or in April," Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin said in one of several messages posted online overnight.
"To take Bakhmut you have to cut all supply routes. It's a significant task," he said, adding: "Progress is not going as fast as we would like."
"Bakhmut would have been taken before the New Year, if not for our monstrous military bureaucracy ... and the spokes that are put in the wheels daily," he added.
Prigozhin has previously accused the Russian military of attempting to "steal" victories from Wagner, a sign of his rising clout and the potential for dangerous rifts in Moscow.



This post was edited by Meanwhile on Feb 16 2023 08:14am