Quote (ferdia @ Feb 15 2023 09:44am)
Djunior is quite confrontational, and I see he has a bee in his bonnet with 1 or 2 users however people should understand that in a debate you need to argue from at least 2 different positions, otherwise its not a debate. in this regard djunior to my mind is doing a fine job, which I will support, in order to maintain a balance in the topic. if everyone agreed with each other it would mean that you are not questioning our countries decisions, which to my mind, should be questioned.
ultimately what Djunior has said about war footing is correct. the west is NOT on a war footing. Russia is definitely ramping up its war footing. what this means is, russia is going to throw more men at this, the west is not. the west is giving weapons and aid to ukraine, it is not committing. it really feels that the US is on the fence, considering how far it will take its position(bear in mind that its my position that the US started this conflict), whereas countries like Poland and England are committed (completely or verbally haha) and countries like germany are being pulled along (this is not a criticism of germany - the german position re: reluctance is a weak argument).
If the US wanted to outright "win" this war (on the notion "oh but putin would not use nuclear weapons to protect themselves", they would send nato into ukraine. The likelyhood is that in nato many countries are probably asking the US what their end goal here is because they dont want WW3.
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on another point i will try to get a history of elon tweets about this war, noting the comments made yesterday re: starlink
He's a nutjob mate, don't kid yourself. Most prejudiced poster on this sub-forum. Projects the counter of his argument onto others and then seek to tear it down; Perfect example doesn't even read that what I posted agree's with his position.
At the bold: Isin't it a stretch to think NATO would go into Ukraine? That is exactly the scenario we all hope to avoid, an open conflict of major powers. Hence all these proxy narratives.
From a humanist perspective people want Ukraine to succeed. But if you consider it from a realpolitik perspective, the US and NATO are already winning by preventing Russia from winning.
I also think that this idea of avoiding escalation by Russia is a self-imposed idea. I know you said that in retaliation Russia could launch a massive airstrike on Kiev.
Is that really in Russia's favour? What does Putin stand to gain from leveling Kiev?
He would basically loose any sense of legitimacy from his own support; In theory of course, because we know that Russian's will follow Vlad all the way to water edge, and probably even drown in their apathetic compliance.
So what is the potential retaliation for sending more advanced equipment to Ukraine? A nuclear strike? What does Putin stand to gain from using even a tactical nuke?
I also don't want to see a broader conflict. I do think that if we allow larger, aggressor states to break the current order. As in, if we appease Russia's aggression.
Then a broader conflict is exactly what we will get in time.