Tell us more, oh wise sage.

Oil is already coming back down. Know why? Because Russian oil is still being sold - now at a big discount to India. What happens when India buys from Russia instead of their usual suppliers (those not under sanction)? Well then those suppliers have supplies they can divert to non-sanctioning countries. So the buyers still get their products, the producers still sell, but Russia just has to do so cheaper than other producers.

Also, the world isn't going to starve while Ukrainian farmers swap plows for swords. American farmers produce 10x as much corn as Ukraine produces wheat, which is mostly wasted in ethanol production. And guess what! This year's crop hasn't even begun planting yet, and if American farmers foresee a spike in wheat prices due to a shortfall elsewhere, they can easily take up the slack. Easily.

India and China you mean. This means India and China are getting cheaper oil.



It is not that easy. Large parts of the Middle East for example (Egypt first and foremost) rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian grains exported through the Black Sea, which is much cheaper than American products being transported there. Beef prices in Europe also rely on the cheap availability of cattle feed from Ukraine, etc.
Disruptions to trade from the region might very well have unpredictable effects. For sure prices will rise worldwide, especially in the countries that consume directly from Ukraine and Russia.

You mean they haven't planted yet? They better start. Ohwait seed material is limited cuz last year they didn't anticipate this crisis...

And have you factored in the fertilizer that we import from Russia? Right didn't think so...

You should realize that most of Russia's wheat from last harvest has already hit the market, wait till the supply dries up and what do you think will happen if next harvest doesn't get exported...

You're acting like a wise sage but really you're looking increasingly dumb. SMH

It comes from Canada.

Generally speaking, what we're seeing right now is the bounce after the initial market anticipation of a crash immediately followed by realizing the US/EU sanctions have no teeth and aren't actually disrupting markets, and more importantly Russia hasn't responded by exploiting its export leverage to punish the EU like it could. Russian oil is still flowing, markets like India are still buying. Turns out if oil/gas/fertilizer prices skyrocket, Russia benefits from the sanctions in the end. I've said this is a portent of how the new Iron Curtain is dividing geopolitics disastrously for us, isolating the US/EU instead of isolating Russia, and maybe setting off the chain reaction that will one day topple the petrodollar. Even Ukrainian wheat production isn't that big a share of the global market that we couldn't just power through it with increased production elsewhere. I think a bigger fear than shortages is a fear that it increases the Russian market share. Ukraine's main wheat export countries were Arab and African and even without the immediate arab spring famine parallel like void said, it could be that Russian wheat exports become more leverage to keep their aligned countries in line.

still its a sizeable market share of wheat held in the tumult. If America and China and India are all hamstrung by another Covid wave and have their own production throttled, especially with China shutting down cities in the face of its first true pandemic in two years, the hammer might actually fall on those Arab and African states after all, because I can guarantee famines will start there not here.

Heh hard to quit when your business is hotel (Accor)



This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 19 2022 01:08pm

We're talking about 1/3 of total world wheat exports https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2022/02/russia-invades-ukraine-supply-disruption-concerns-fuel-wheat-fertilizer-prices/



This is immense. suggesting this is nothing and get be negotiated easily without any difficulty is beyond ridiculous. Taking into account a large percentage is winter wheat (planted in fall) and that available spring wheat seed material will be limited.

My guess is that Russia prefers the cash at the moment but when they decide to strike back with sanctions the whole world will have to deal with crazy commodity prices and fertilizer prizes, there's no way around it. And yes like I stated before the poorest countries are the ones that are going to suffer as usual.

Russia's harvest is going to go on uninterrupted, and if the gas and oil markets have been any sign, they will have no troubles exporting it. Its the Ukrainian harvest for next year or years to come that will be disrupted. Like I said, if anything this just hands more leverage to Russia as their wheat becomes more expensive and Arab and African countries line up to buy from them outside of our Iron Curtain. What we're looking at is world markets where the overall supply of commodities is only dipping a small amount (unless another Covid wave crashes into them), but turmoil in the markets from western sanctions skyrockets those commodity prices, and Russia scores a huge win with its exports. And at the same time we can try to contrive an artificial default by freezing assets to prevent them paying, they're earning record profits.

It sure sounds like a shit geopolitical maneuver to me, completely contrary to our intended goal and wildly self-destructive for the US in the long run

I think we're in for a rough ride. Commodity prices were already high due to losses attributed to climate change and market disruptions during the pandemic.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ensure-agricultural-product-supplies-025837372.html



China is the world's biggest wheat consumer and they have money to burn. They'll be ok buying up what they need.

We cannot afford to let people in developing countries starve because of our dear policy makers' shit decisions so we'll have to look after them for some time to come.

One year from now we're asking ourselves if NATO expansion East was worth all the trouble it caused.

Of course we can. We've been doing that for centuries so why should we stop? At the end of the day, Russia bit off more than they can chew and they will suffer the consequences along with the rest of the 3rd world.

Russia should immediately surrender just like the US should have immediately surrendered during Vietnam. These wars simply aren't worth it.

Reports coming out that civilians are being forcibly moved from Mariupol to Russia. Waiting to see confirmation on this, but it's not a good thing, if true.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505258123434639360