You can't expect news not to be dramatic. Russia has been cycling out Wagner around Bakhmut for weeks now, replacing them with regular elements of the Russian military. The MoD is making independent efforts to bring other irregulars like the DPR under MoD control, including the direct integration of Russian mobilized men into existing DPR formations.

"For the most part" isn't good enough. Wagner was needed for a time in order to stabilize the front and press advances around Bakhmut. But throwing prisoners against fortified lines is not a long-term strategy, it looks unprofessional because it is unprofessional, and Prigozhin is a wildcard that has directly criticized the Kremlin and the Russian MoD. It makes sense that he's being sidelined, especially now that Russia has bought the time it needs to bring its mobilized men to bear.

More likely you are not following much news these days: there's definitely a move to shut up Prigozhin from moscow, maybe because he said that "taking dombass will take 2 years" or that "regular army generals/leaders are stupid and do the same mistakes"...

Now regarding the "weak french army"... Same: you are underinformed or maybe you didnt make the intellectual effort that: it is much better for the worst dictators to use Wagner than French's army... More corruption/money, much less regards of human rights...
Because russians journalists will have hard time talking about it: atrocities to unreachable levels (= "weak" following your logic)

This post was edited by Meanwhile on Feb 14 2023 06:38pm

Unfortunately, years. This is, for both sides, an existential crisis. For Ukraine, for obvious reasons. For Russia, now that the war has started, there's no backing out that keeps Putin on the throne.

To add to this, Russia's leadership does not appear content with a grinding conflict in the Donbas. Russia is massing air power, long held in reserve, in anticipation of an offensive that will break the stalemate. Russia fighting Ukraine to a draw is obviously not an acceptable outcome to a nation that considers itself a world power, and one which needs to be taken as a world power by both its adversaries and its nominal allies (looking at China).

Russia has no airsuperiority... might as well send paper airplanes... they stopped flying because they know they will get wiped off the map with the air defense US sent Ukraine... goodluck bud.

I don't agree with "stabilize the front". Impossible to know how big Wagner currently is but I would think anywhere between 20-50k, maybe more but those are the figures i've seen. Stabilization of the front (a defensive framing) IMO across the entire front with 50k units is silly and the vast majority of them are not specialized units (tank teams, flyers, anti-air defense, etc) they are mostly basic infantry type units. They would have no real ability to conduct wide scale operations imo. They have been very useful because I think they are being treated as expandable. To actually take town and cities you need actual soldiers clearing them building by building basically cod modern warfare irl--perfect for an expandable Wagner force.

I also don't know if this forecasted massive offensive is actually going to happen. Maybe maybe not? I seen it repeated over and over as some sort of 100% certain climactic event to happen but in my opinion time is on Russia's side so you may not see this massive move.

In the grand scheme of things I don’t really think Prighozin is that big of a deal tbh. There are swaths of political figures and commentators that have called for tougher and more brutal escalations in Russia.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 14 2023 08:19pm

Say Russia's imminent offensive is so strong that Ukraine has to retreat from the Donbass and throw all its remaining reserves against it before stopping the Russian advance. In that case, any plans for a spring counteroffensive they might have had go up in smokes while Russia would have to rally and regroup a lot before having any chance at pushing further. In a scenario like that, Putin could easily get out of this conflict while saving face at home by announcing: "We have secured the territories of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, mission accomplished. Ukraine and its Western suppliers can either deal with it and have peace at the current lines, or the fighting continues. Their choice!"

Not that I consider such a scenario very likely; I don't think the Russians will stop trying to capture more and more of Ukraine until they are militarily stopped - but I gotta disagree with this notion that anything short of total victory spells doom for Putin. If Russia finds itself in an advantageous but not dominat position, Putin can get out of this if he wants to.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 14 2023 08:18pm

for norlander: i dont know enough on russia history to support my position, the examples of russian protest (the 2nd batch) were good counter arguments to my claim/statement/view.



i dont think Putin will stop there, anymore. overall i agree with this, with the caveat that Putin does not want to get out (or is ideologically incapable of getting out).

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 15 2023 02:12am

Neither side can start an offensive, they've got winter. Try to dug trenches and to fortify position in frozen soil Also, as soon as snow melts the muddy terrsin is going to become unpassable for some time.
Yes, Russia is amassing s huge offensive but it'd be 2 months the least until they can start rolling. However, MSM needs to create urgency hollywood style to rally support now because in 2 months, it's going to be too late.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Feb 15 2023 02:32am

You don't need to dig trenches to launch a motorized/tank-based offensive on frozen soil. The end of winter is actually a much better time of the year to launch a major offensive than "mud season". There's a reason why Russia's initial attack took place a year ago, in February.