Who dies first, Russia or China?


Both are equally done for within the next 20 years. Give or take a few....

This post was edited by said_aouita on Feb 1 2023 11:50am

I simply don't see China's government collapsing.

Their declining population is not in a good shape at all. And if Russia collapses at some point (which is still possible) ...
Yet their dictatorship is so crazy they could end up doing cloning or forcing women to have children anyway.

Star Wars: The clone wars, but it's all Xi Jinping and every song replaced by red sun in the sky.

You're talking as if the loss of pipeline gas sales to Europe will have no effect whatsoever on Russia. Building equivalent pipeline capacity to China will cost tens of billions and take many years, and expose Russia to a strategic dependence on a single customer.

Other options simply don't exist, the distance from Russian gas fields to India or South East Asia is far too long and going through too many unsafe countries to ever allow large pipeline projects. India will never allow its natural gas supplies to depend on a pipeline which the Chinese or the Pakistanis could shut down any time they feel like it.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 1 2023 01:09pm

you posted a video the other day, which having watched it, I identified that it was a response/rebuttal to a previous lecture (which i had not watched at the time). that lecture i only got around to watching today.

if we ignore the causes of the war for a moment (accept we have different views), i would comment that a very good question was asked which was: how will this war end.
ultimately if the west is winning the proposal was that russia may escalate via nonconventional weapons as they see this as an existential threat.
ultimately if russia is winning the west may take steps to escalate the war as they are not happy to lose.

in this regard neither side is budging and therefore there is simply no indication that we will not see anything in 2023 other then war, with the situation likely to continue into 2024.

i cant link video's ofc - noting i have a fan that reports all my posts, therefore I can only state its the latest seminar from the american political scientist John Mearsheimer.

This post was edited by ferdia on Feb 1 2023 01:10pm

To elaborate on my previous point: Russia plans to have a pipeline capacity that delivers 88 billion cubic meters (bcm) to China by 2030:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-oversees-launch-siberian-gas-field-feeding-pipeline-china-2022-12-21/

By contrast, the pipeline capacity to Europe in 2021, before the outbreak of the war and excluding the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which never went into operation, was roughly 209 bcm:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1262295/capacity-of-natural-gas-export-pipelines-in-russia/

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 1 2023 01:29pm

This. Europe can diversify its energy sources alot easier than Russia can diversify its economy.

What if ?

It's not only the west but almost -if not all- democracies in the world that would hardly accept to live with that; Russia can invade whoever it wants, using nuclear power as a threat. They pushed up to Kiyv with assassins remember ?
And Ukraine itself... What if they fight to death killing millions on both sides, then use their own nuclear waste as dirty bombs in Moscow as a last gesture because no one helped them ?
Imagine millions ukrainians civilians getting killed, raped, tortured...

The only scenario is to give Ukraine alot of military ressources to resist and repell until Russia it falls or changes, or accept a very small territorial gain to save the face.

to be clear what i was saying was: the war is more likely to escalate in 2023 (and 2024) then anything else to happen.