US government advises Ukraine to give up Bakhmut after losing Soledar. Loss of eastern Ukraine is imminent, for Russia won't just stop there and will go for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
That would be the best time to initiate peace talks if any are possible.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jan 21 2023 05:49am

Capturing Kramatorsk/Sloviansk will be a significantly heavier lift for Russia's military than Bakhmut/Soledar were. Much larger cities, the HQ of Ukraine's armed forces in the Donbass, just as heavily fortified, with supply lines which are much harder to disrupt. It really depends on why Russia was able to conquer Soledar: was it because Ukraine's front is crumbling due to a lack of men and material, or was it because Russia threw everything it had into one big assault and overpowered them in a fashion which Russia couldn't replicate at larger scale?



I've made this point previously, but it's worth being repeated: when Russia captured Lysychansk in early July after weeks-long intense battles, a lot of observers thought this was a key breakthrough and indicative of Ukraine's defense collapsing. As we know now, it was quite the contrary: Russia barely taking a strategic point in a last-gasp effort before their offense ran out of steam for several months.

Now, I don't think that Russia has exhausted its offensive potential this time around, but there are certain parallels. In particular the fact that Russian troops had been unable to take Bakhmut or Soledar for months (and not for a lack of trying) and had to send the Wagnerites to get the job done.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 21 2023 06:23am

So they foresaw Russia would invade Ukraine and so they refused them entry to the alliance?
And yet Russia invaded Ukraine anyway and likely a quarter of a million have died; At least 10 million refugees have also left Ukraine.
Shame on them.

Merkel styled herself as the leader of the free world. Yet thanks to her decision the free world ends east of the Dnipro river.

Europe's resolve is now in serious question. Scholz's indecision on supporting Ukraine is leading to Europes diminishing reputation.
It also sends the signal to aggressors that Europe is not as unified as it likes to portray.

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Jan 21 2023 06:34am

do you not get it ? i have to go out. if someone else can explain merkel's decision to you great, else i will when i get home. she was a great leader.

This post was edited by ferdia on Jan 21 2023 06:44am

We are losing that war if that is truly the US strategy for Ukraine. Last I pulled the numbers US has spent more in Ukraine that RU dollar for dollar. Also keep in mind RU is resource rich and has rail and ship routes to NK China, India. And history has proven RU is willing to expend their soldiers lives at unheard of rates. Hoping US peels away from this nonsense, that is where polling is going.

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Jan 21 2023 06:48am

Russia simply didn't have enough manpower to hold the land. It's a different story now. Recapturing lost ground isn't going to be easy at all. We don't get any info about Ukrainian losses in manpower and material.
I see only one successful strategy to "annoy" Russia the most. Retreat, regroup, then overwhelm a less fortified flank in the manner Ukraine did last year. Hold it until on the brink of losing then do the same elsewhere. Rinse and repeat. Ukrainian front is simply too big to be fortified all along. Russia can't prevent certain parts from being overwhelmed. War of attrition however isn't gonna work for Ukraine. I don't know whether they still have enough qualified personnel to commit prolonged hit and run tactics.
Thus, reaching a deal after the loss of Donbass seems like a better outcome than total destruction.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jan 21 2023 06:57am

What's to get? Ukraine is obliterated. NATO had a deterent and security to offer Ukraine.
Merkel blocked it. Blood is on her hands.

She was a great leader for Germany, sure. Her reputation is tarnished in my opinion, in what I see as a mistake.
That and over exposing Germany to Russian gas and closing nuclear power stations.

Nope, US is biggest winner no matter the outcome. The losers are:
1. Ukraine people






2. Russia
3. Western Europe as a whole

It can't get any better for the US geopolitical mongrels ( I don't mean regular folks, no offense) than a proxy war against Russia to the last Ukrainian with US weapons. US may have invested more in $ but Russia doesn't have mucj $ to begin with. Russia is proportionally more invested with manpower, material while having a crippling economy behind them.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jan 21 2023 07:02am

Sounds like false news to me. Any source ? Btw It's probably "better" to have all the destruction centered in this town.
What I can read in news since yesterday is that US advised Ukraine to slow down on major counter-offensive and to wait next weapons to arrive.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-officials-advise-ukraine-to-wait-on-offensive-official-says/ar-AA16Aq2j

A lot is said between the lines.

This post was edited by babun1024 on Jan 21 2023 07:09am