You mean Hillary, right?

Right on time.

Wall of text incoming.

I've talked a lot about the the different aspects of the Russia investigation in recent days. The legality of the FISA warrant process, the Dossier, potential bias/insubordination in the FBI, the historical context of Cold War, etc. But let me also say this:

In diving into this whole ordeal, and I've concluded that Donald Trump is most likely fucked. Mueller now has Flynn, Gates, and Cohen feeding him info, either willingly or unwillingly (office raid of Cohen).

He's also got Gates working on Manafort. I'm not even really sure Mueller needs to flip Manafort at this point. The FBI also monitored Carter Page, who was on the Trump campaign, for years. Mueller's got Papadopoulos, who isn't as significant as Flynn or Gates, but can still provide some collateral and damaging information nonetheless.

Mueller's working on getting Roger Stone. He got Nunberg to (infamously) hand over all his info on Trump contacts, most importantly Stone in Nunberg's case. Corey Lewandowski, Hope Hicks, Keith Schiller, and Steve Banon were also listed on that Grand Jury subpoena, so he's got all that shit, too.

Mueller's looking to tear this entire shitshow down, from the coffee boys of Papadopoulos, to the lobbyist hacks like Gates and Manafort, to the administrative guys like Flynn, to finally the President of the United States.

All of the wise folks have already jumped ship. Hope Hicks got the hell out of there. Bannon was smart enough to know to publicly distance himself from the mess and call the Trump Tower meeting treasonous. Sessions recused himself. Kushner has realized he shouldn't be pretending to play DC hotshot anymore.

By the time Mueller is done, he won't even need Trump to give him an interview. He won't even need to get a grand jury subpoena. He'll make the offer, but Trump will refuse, and Mueller isn't looking to have that Constitutional battle and lose a big PR battle. Mueller's going to have so much collateral and corroborated information on Trump's knowledge and actions that an interview won't be necessary.

I'm not even sure Trump had knowledge of any collusion or conspiracy efforts on behalf of his campaign. He probably did know about the Trump Tower meeting at the least, but that hasn't been proven yet.

But what is clear to me is that Trump probably made the biggest political mistake in American history by firing James Comey in the way he did. That event has triggered a cascade of events, including the appointment of the Special Counsel, that will lead to a political indictment and circuis in which the likes this country has never seen.

Will it result in the removal of Trump? Who knows. Probably not. My guess is Mueller will hand over his findings to Rosenstein. Rosenstein can either then decide to indict Trump or bring the charges to Congress. My guess is that Rosenstein brings the charges to Congress because that best follows the historical precedent.

Impeachment is unlikely just as a product of the Senatorial math it takes to get there (67 votes). But based on my speculation and how all of this has unfolded so far, my guess is that the political damage Trump will suffer as a result of the investigation will damage his base of support just enough to derail his presidency.

Is it fair? I'm not sure. I don't know if Trump had any knowledge of any potential conspiracy, collusion, or wrongdoing. But by all accounts and based on who Mueller has flipped so far, that's where all of this is headed. Trump surrounded himself with the wrong type of people during his campaign, and then he fucked with the wrong people after he won. It maybe prove to be a lethal combination of actions.

I think there is some truth to the deep state. The FBI and the intelligence community are way out of control. Some of the timing of this investigation has seemed politically peculiar. As Americans, we should all push back on any of their abuses of power.

But for better or worse, I also don't doubt that very same deep state's ability to bring all of the slime that was Trump's campaign and Trump's political operation to light and into the gutters of DC where it belongs. The swamp will be drained.

I trust the "deep state"s intentions way more than Trump's. I agree with your assessment that trump is "is most likely f'd", i think Trump will inevitably be forced to step down as this investigation gets close to a wrap. it'll take his closest allies/friends to convice him, but i believe it'll inevitably happen. This is assuming that the special counsel keeps revealing damning information and Trump continues to act guilty/act like he is comprimised by Putin.

I notice you say that even though Trump won't get busted, so to speak, that this will destroy his political career.

I think you're making the same mistake lots of folks have. Trump doesn't have a political career. So "getting" to Trump that way, is pretty much impossible.
I mean how can even Mueller make the Hillarites (non-Trump voters) dislike Trump more than they do now.

Trump is NOT a political animal. Normal tactics will not work against Trump. I mean just look at what trump has done so far. He's convinced, even you, that the FBI and the DOJ are in fact corrupt.
They ARE corrupt, but no one has managed to get it out into the open before.

But then along cam Trump, slow walking Trump...

The Reps and the Dems have for years, been involved in the "let's see how much we can get away with" game. They have been lying, cheating, breaking laws, falsifying documents, etc., as if that is what counted as a win.
Trump plays a different game. He isn't playing by "their" rules. This is why every week, we see the Dems and even the Reps, scrabbloing for new BS they can try to sell to the American public.

Somehow, trump keeps abreast of all this finagling and manages to tweet about it, just in time to really screw up all their well laid plans.

Trump has a political career now. He's the President of the United States.

38% of independents approve of Trump. That's where I think he is most subject to losing the most support. I think you see that number dip into the 20s. The 88-90% Republican approval numbers might drop to the upper 70s, depending on the damage. Charlottesville dropped him into the upper 70s with Republicans.

I think it's going to be just enough to derail his Presidency, impeachment or not. I mean, look at the PR damage it has already done. He'll likely remain in office, but he will be politically limited in what he can accomplish. His political window is now.

Seriously, you need to quit getting lost in the details. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html <--- holding fairly steady it seems to me.

1.6 years ago everyone KNEW Trump would lose to Hillary
8 months ago, everyone KNEW Trump would be impeached.
Now it seems the best that could be achieved is derailment?

How many times does Trump have to pull off the impossible, before folk start to realize, that he keeps surprising people. He keeps succeeding.

for anyone who thinks the FISA warrant on Page was B/S or politically motivated, read this:

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1021183296984821761

read #18 to #30. (#30 reminds me of users on here like Ghot/Goom or even some of ThatAlex's talking points)

I wasn't aware of the potential 4th Amendment violations of the FISC until I did more research into the FISA warrant process.

It appears the FISC had enough evidence on Page to be granted a FISA warrant and 3 renewals, but once I realized the court's potential for abuse and just how many applications are granted (99.7%), I thought it was important to raise that issue, even if it helps Trump/GOP.

The FISC is essentially a secret, non-adversarial system of judicial review. Isolate yourself from the whole Carter Page/Trump saga for a second and think about the Constitutionality of the government being able to monitor you with a very low bar of probable cause and without you knowing about it.

i'm confused, do you think the FISA warrant on Page was abuse of power or not? Do you really think the FBI is going around spying on people for no reason? because that's what it sounds like you're implying here... sounds like right wing paranoia to me. I mean, if your a die hard Libertarian, I get it but... seriously... it's all being politicized.