Clinton was never up by more than 7-8% nationally, particularly not for sustained periods of time. On the flip side, there were multiple periods in that race during which Trump was polling within 2-3% of Clinton. Trump never got closer to Biden than 5-6%, and has trailed by at least 7% for the big majority of the campaign. And let's not forget that there are far fewer undecideds this year than there were in 2016.



No. In the crucial battleground states, the majority of low propensity demos are Trump-leaning. If they think that Trump will lose anyway, they're gonna just stay home. Which would not only play into Biden's hands, it would also increase the chance for Democrats to take the Senate. McSally, Tillis, Peters, Collins, Ernst - they all can only win their races if the MAGA-voters turn out in big numbers.

this is progress, in 2016 the metric reported commonly was % chance to win. that's the headlines people wanted. in 2020, now that the DNC got destroyed electorally the messaging is more battleground state focused.

i still think people are in for a shock come election day when it comes to states people think will be blue. i dont see anything to suggest Trump loses in 2020, despite a disastrous year for him with few cards left to play.

The blue wave in 2018 imho proved that the anti-Trump backlash is real. The energy that was lacking on the Democratic side for Hillary now is there against Trump. Biden just has to exist and be bland/boring/inoffensive. At the end of the day, America just hates Biden far far less than it hated Hillary. Against a polarizing incumbent who is unable and unwilling to expand his base, who has run an awful campaign and botched pretty much everything he touched this year, I'd be surprised if Biden wasnt ahead.

Do I expect Trump to overperform his polls again, particularly in states like WI or PA? Definitely. I just dont think that it's gonna be enough this time around.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 13 2020 10:21am

Obama lost his mandate in 2010 and still crushed in 2012. backlash mandate removal is always going to be a thing and shouldnt be used at a 1 to 1 ratio with general election incumbent followups.

True, but the fundamentals havent changed that much between 2018 and 2020. Democrats are still carried by anti-Trump outrage on the left, by a green wave which allows them to outspend their republican rivals by a 2:1 ratio in competitive races, Trump is just as polarizing, erratic and unable to expand his base as he was the past 4 years. Under normal circumstances, I would still expect Trump to do better because there are low turnout voters who only come to the polls for him, but this effect is offset by the whole covid debacle.

Regarding 2010 vs 2012: 2010 was a very low turnout race in which Republicans were laser focused on key races (google "project redmap"), while Obama in 2012 was able to get lots of marginal voters out of the woodwork. Additionally, Obama benefitted from the relative unpopularity of the Romney/Ryan fiscal conservatism platform. And from a superb ground game. Simply put, Obama ran pretty much the perfect campaign in 2012. By contrast, Trump is running one of the worst campaigns in recent memory in 2020. I would rate it lower than Clinton 2016 or McCain 2008.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 13 2020 10:28am

i think outrage against trump is "growing" but the voter base is not. we'll still have low turnout and all of the twitter rage wont result in a windfall of votes for Biden.

and i dont think Trump needs his base to expand, he just needs to hold it, which he has.

unless a rise in mail in voting results in a windfall for Biden, thats the only wildcard i have a hard time working out.

i tend to live by the adage that nothing can or will change Trump's base support when it comes to general election voting, it's as stagnant as can be. i might be wrong, time will tell.

The thing is that Trump's base is not enough as long as Biden consolidates the Democratic base. Trump only got to 46% in 2016, it wouldnt have nearly been enough if Hillary hadnt simultaneously been stuck at a pitiful 48%. Romney got to 47% in 2012 and was defeated handily. I dont see Trump exceeding 47% this time around.

Also, I expect a high turnout election. Voters on both sides are amped up, and mail voting has historically boosted turnout.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 13 2020 11:37am

the problem is that a bunch of people in america can be amped up like crazy and still not vote, especially in democratic urban areas. even with mail in voting easier than ever. i requested a ballot for me and my wife in 2 minutes total time. filled them out in only a few minutes as well. but for some people u cant make it easy enough. you could put a 5$ bill in a box labelled biden and a box labelled trump and tell people to grab one to vote and somehow we'd still have low turnout.

Maybe that's how it has historically been. But it brings me back to 2018, when turnout was sky-high for a midterm, almost on presidential year levels.

in 2018 did we have covid scaring people from voting in person? did we have reduced voting locations? etc.

Voting turnout will be fairly normal with a slight bump, imo. which is still very low by % of population.

honestly i think trump loves polls showing him way behind, its eating democrat voters who say "he'll lose, i dont need to vote".