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Jan 10 2023 02:46pm
Quote (ferdia @ 11 Jan 2023 04:41)
well yes, case in point.


Apart from this Ukraine situation.
I would like to look at the Serbia and Kosovo situation in Europe situation as well which might be soon.

Taiwan will probably come at a later point which I told u might happen around 2030 - 2032 ( Hopefully not earlier )

Another interesting situation that might come up will be South America.
Brazil and Argentina .
Paraguay might be removing themselves from the Taiwanese Government very soon after all these years.
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Jan 10 2023 05:57pm
Did Russia capture Bachmut yet?
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Jan 10 2023 06:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 10 2023 11:57pm)
Did Russia capture Bachmut yet?


No.
Reports suggest that Russia* has or is close to taking Soledar. A town north and close to Bakhmut.

*Wagner

This post was edited by Prox1m1ty on Jan 10 2023 06:35pm
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Jan 10 2023 06:45pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 11 Jan 2023 01:35)
No.
Reports suggest that Russia* has or is close to taking Soledar. A town north and close to Bakhmut.

*Wagner


Sooo... since I went on Christmas vacation, Russia has gained what, 5 or 10 kilometers of ground? And that's after three weeks of intense fighting on a managable front, with all of their forces finally consolidated in one region? Not exactly impressive.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 10 2023 06:46pm
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Jan 10 2023 07:32pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ 11 Jan 2023 01:35)
No.
Reports suggest that Russia* has or is close to taking Soledar. A town north and close to Bakhmut.

*Wagner


" A country of masochists. "

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1612930855898324995




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Jan 10 2023 07:57pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 10 2023 07:45pm)
Sooo... since I went on Christmas vacation, Russia has gained what, 5 or 10 kilometers of ground? And that's after three weeks of intense fighting on a managable front, with all of their forces finally consolidated in one region? Not exactly impressive.


Taking random territory is not as important as taking important logistical centers, that's key to controlling highways and junctions. You can open up a map and see how Bakhmut/Soledar lies at the center of the Donbas and it also has natural barriers like waterways that make it naturally hard to take. Soledar is key to taking Bakhmut and these two have been a key point of hostilities where both sides have thrown considerable resources and man-power. Ukraine committed several battalions to defending it. Who knows the exact number of soldiers that are fighting there but if someone were to say it's somewhere in the low 5 figures it wouldn't surprise me, if you consider like a few months time span with rotations.

This is what a Spanish journalist in Ukraine had to say about it during an interview in Dec. Using her as a source because I think it's the closest to being objective.

Quote
What is happening in the battle of Bakhmut? The news we are receiving is of the death of very many people.

Yes, we have to look to the Donbas because Bakhmut is precisely the blackest point of the war in Ukraine. This week, both the Institute for the Study of War, which is a prestigious American think tank, and other international thin tanks, have agreed that up to 400 Ukrainian soldiers a day are being killed and wounded in Bakhmut.

And beyond the number, which is just a figure, I have been able to talk in recent days with different military sources, both official and combatants who have been there, and what they say makes one's hair stand on end. The city is for the moment under Ukrainian control, but the Russian troops have stationed their artillery close enough to fire there, but far enough away so as not to expose their troops too much. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army, as it has to defend the terrain, has a lot of infantry, light units, paramilitary units that can do little against the bombs. This combat front has become today a real human meat grinder. That's how crude I can say it.

Right now it is one of the most, if not the most, worrying point for Zelenski's armed forces. Our listeners are probably wondering what is the importance of Bakhmut to take such a commitment to defend the position with such a very high cost of living. Bakhmut is not an iconic city like Severodonetsk was, where one of the great battles of this war also took place. Bakhmut is not that kind of iconic city. However, it is a communications hub that is key to the supply lines of Ukrainian troops in Donetsk province, and it is also the buffer that contains the advance of Kremlin troops towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. If the Russian Army were to take these two cities, it would gain almost total control of the Donetsk province and, therefore, of the entire Donbas, something that Putin could already sell as a great victory. So you can imagine the effort that the Kremlin is putting right now in taking Bakhmut and what it is costing the Ukrainians to defend it.


https://atalayar.com/en/content/maria-senovilla-bakhmut-blackest-point-ukrainian-war-400-ukrainian-soldiers-day-are-being

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jan 10 2023 08:15pm
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Jan 10 2023 09:25pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 11 Jan 2023 02:57)
Taking random territory is not as important as taking important logistical centers, that's key to controlling highways and junctions. You can open up a map and see how Bakhmut/Soledar lies at the center of the Donbas and it also has natural barriers like waterways that make it naturally hard to take. Soledar is key to taking Bakhmut and these two have been a key point of hostilities where both sides have thrown considerable resources and man-power. Ukraine committed several battalions to defending it. Who knows the exact number of soldiers that are fighting there but if someone were to say it's somewhere in the low 5 figures it wouldn't surprise me, if you consider like a few months time span with rotations.

This is what a Spanish journalist in Ukraine had to say about it during an interview in Dec. Using her as a source because I think it's the closest to being objective.
https://atalayar.com/en/content/maria-senovilla-bakhmut-blackest-point-ukrainian-war-400-ukrainian-soldiers-day-are-being


Sure, I'm well aware of the strategic importance of Bachmut and Soledar; and of the massive toll it takes from Ukraine to defend it. This "400 Ukrainian casualties per day"-figure is kinda worthless though unless we can compare it with the corresponding number of Russian casualties.

This whole situation reminds me a bit of the Russian capture of Lysychansk/Sieverodonetsk this summer. Back then, a lot of people thought that Russia's troops had "finally" gotten into a good rythm, broken the Ukrainian defense and taken a major population center; and that this might well be the beginning of a domino effect which sees Ukraine's entire eastern front collapse. As we know with the benefit of hindsight, the real situation was quite the opposite: the Russians barely took Lysychansk in a last gasp effort before they ran out of steam since the weeks-long, intense fighting had inflicted too heavy losses on both their troops and their material.

In this light, I would say the sheer fact that it takes Russia this long to seize Bachmut/Soledar is a bad sign for them. Now, there are currently reports coming in that Wagner troops have captured Soledar this evening, so maybe this time Ukraine's defense line really collapses, Russia takes Bachmut within the next few days and I'll have to eat crow. I still doubt it, but we'll see.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Jan 10 2023 09:28pm
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Jan 10 2023 10:07pm
Russia invaded Ukraine in late February of last year. The users here sympathetic to Russia thought the US government and media predicting an invasion beforehand were wrong. They didn't think Putin was capable of doing something like this. Those people were wrong.

Those same people were opposed to US/European support for Ukraine. They thought that was just prolonging the inevitable defeat in a few weeks. Those people were wrong.

The same people are probably looking forward(or at least don't care either way) to the day where Russia defeats Ukraine seriously on the battlefield and turn the country into a vassal-state of Russia. They think the idea of a Western(US and Europe) project for democracy and freedom in Eastern Europe is either undesirable or pointless. They oppose the continuing support for Ukraine, a country that has fended off a fascist superpower on it's border.

Those people are wrong.
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Jan 10 2023 10:30pm
Quote (IceMage @ 11 Jan 2023 05:07)
Russia invaded Ukraine in late February of last year. The users here sympathetic to Russia thought the US government and media predicting an invasion beforehand were wrong. They didn't think Putin was capable of doing something like this. Those people were wrong.

Those same people were opposed to US/European support for Ukraine. They thought that was just prolonging the inevitable defeat in a few weeks. Those people were wrong.

The same people are probably looking forward(or at least don't care either way) to the day where Russia defeats Ukraine seriously on the battlefield and turn the country into a vassal-state of Russia. They think the idea of a Western(US and Europe) project for democracy and freedom in Eastern Europe is either undesirable or pointless. They oppose the continuing support for Ukraine, a country that has fended off a fascist superpower on it's border.

Those people are wrong.

I think it's neither. Most of them probably do think that democracy and freedom in Eastern Europe would be desirable in abstract, but that the economic toll this war is taking on us is not worth the potential outcome.
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Jan 10 2023 10:35pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Jan 10 2023 11:30pm)
I think it's neither. Most of them probably do think that democracy and freedom in Eastern Europe would be desirable in abstract, but that the economic toll this war is taking on us is not worth the potential outcome.


Well all it takes is a quick check for what they said about Eastern European politics before this conflict. It's the same talking points, aligned with Russia and hostile to the movements for democracy.

The authoritarians are aligning. Just look at Brazil's January 6th, and how propagandists go on Tucker Carlson's show and explain how it's a false flag.

This is what people(like yourself) who are aligned with Trump miss. It's a far-right authoritarian movement. You can wish it was just about economic nationalism and such, but that's not what's going on.

This post was edited by IceMage on Jan 10 2023 10:38pm
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