Quote (fender @ Mar 16 2022 10:28am)
that's an interesting graphic. if you choose the maximum timeframe you can see their weapons sales since 1992. the years 2011 and 2012 are by far their highest numbers, and the only nations that joined NATO since then are tiny montenegro (600 k people) and north macedonia (2.1 m people). so i think it's safe to assume that NATO enlargement had basically no impact on russian weapons exports. just look at 1999 and the following years: despite three (!) major former warsaw pact members joining nato (poland, hungary, czech republic), russian arms exports grew significantly in the subsequent years.
i know you're not making excuses for russia, i never said or implied that. i also agree that excuses and justifications work best with a bit of truth to them, not that pootin (or his bots) really cared about the credibility of their narratives. i guess our main disagreement is over the question if NATO enlargement objectively hurts russian business or not, and i simply don't see any indication that it did.
the question gets hard with weapons sales because after the fall of the USSR there was a period of a firesale for a bit, i dont know enough without having to read up a massive amount when Russia stopped exporting old USSR tech and when they started the phase they're in now in which they've developed new weapons. we see almost daily now reports of new missiles, new tanks, new drones, new planes. questions of how they'll match up with western and US tech, etc.
but i think its safe to say pre-2014 Ukraine was more likely to buy Russian weapons than US weapons, and its safe to say a post-2014 western friendlier Ukraine govt is more likely to buy US weapons, as they have, to directly counter Russian weapons.
India seems precariously positioned to play both sides, buying Russian oil and weapons, while also being a china-like conduit for the western economy with their stronghold on outsourced customer service, billing industry, and engineering.
China wants gas/oil/etc but im sure has very little need for Russian weapons, unless its in small batches to reverse engineer.
at some point im sure Russia will be fairly low on weapons sales targets, Iran, Syria, and maybe a few other bottom dollar snake pits will remain. and old USSR shitholes like Belarus. slim pickings get slimmer.
im curious what the NATO/OPEC relationship is moving forward in this situation, havent read up on that at all.
This post was edited by thesnipa on Mar 16 2022 09:38am