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Oct 9 2020 11:36am
Quote (thesnipa @ 9 Oct 2020 13:35)
wait wut



wat
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Oct 9 2020 11:37am
Quote (thesnipa @ Oct 9 2020 10:35am)
wait wut



I mixed up the +/-

Biden -150
Trump +185
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Oct 9 2020 11:50pm
anybody paying attention should see what i see , the polls are bullshit , complete and utter bullshit
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Oct 10 2020 12:07am
Quote (darkhead69 @ Oct 9 2020 10:50pm)
anybody paying attention should see what i see , the polls are bullshit , complete and utter bullshit


the polls as expressed by any MSM outlet yeah

i deferred to vegas odds in 2008
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Oct 10 2020 05:43am
Quote (darkhead69 @ Oct 10 2020 12:50am)
anybody paying attention should see what i see , the polls are bullshit , complete and utter bullshit


When your position is "everybody is an idiot except for me", you can assume you're missing a lot of information that others have.
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Oct 10 2020 06:27am
These pollsters have a reputation to lose. If they publish bogus polls to support a certain media narrative ("orange man dead in the water") and stick with them, they would be exposed as frauds on election day. What I would be looking out for is if the polls shift significantly toward Trump in the week before the election while there are no events which could explain this shift. In this case, I would say some pollsters were indeed tinkering with their polls to push a narrative during the campaign season, and are now reverting their numbers back to where the race really stands so that they can save face. But we're not there yet.

Trump has run an awful campaign, nothing he does or tries seems to work out for him this year, all external events have played into Biden's hands, and he never had any "popularity or goodwill cushion" to fall back on - so the more logical and simple explanation is that he's indeed losing big right now.



I will say though, some outlier polls are clearly inflated. Like that one Quinnipiac poll the other day showing Biden up by 11 in Florida and 13 in Pennsylvania. Even the chair of Democratic PrioritiesUSA super pac called these numbers out as bullshit:
https://mobile.twitter.com/guycecil/status/1313913531834736641?s=21

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 10 2020 06:30am
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Oct 12 2020 04:27pm
10/12 update:

Biden -225
Trump +180
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Oct 12 2020 04:38pm
Quote (lito @ 13 Oct 2020 00:27)
10/12 update:

Biden -225
Trump +180


Do you mean Biden -125?

Going from Biden -150/Trump +185 just three days ago to Biden -225/Trump +180 today would be an absurd increase in bookie margin.
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Oct 13 2020 09:24am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 10 2020 05:27am)
These pollsters have a reputation to lose. If they publish bogus polls to support a certain media narrative ("orange man dead in the water") and stick with them, they would be exposed as frauds on election day. What I would be looking out for is if the polls shift significantly toward Trump in the week before the election while there are no events which could explain this shift. In this case, I would say some pollsters were indeed tinkering with their polls to push a narrative during the campaign season, and are now reverting their numbers back to where the race really stands so that they can save face. But we're not there yet.

Trump has run an awful campaign, nothing he does or tries seems to work out for him this year, all external events have played into Biden's hands, and he never had any "popularity or goodwill cushion" to fall back on - so the more logical and simple explanation is that he's indeed losing big right now.



I will say though, some outlier polls are clearly inflated. Like that one Quinnipiac poll the other day showing Biden up by 11 in Florida and 13 in Pennsylvania. Even the chair of Democratic PrioritiesUSA super pac called these numbers out as bullshit:
https://mobile.twitter.com/guycecil/status/1313913531834736641?s=21



These polls are designed to inspire complacency. They help Trump.
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Oct 13 2020 09:32am
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 10 2020 07:27am)
These pollsters have a reputation to lose. If they publish bogus polls to support a certain media narrative ("orange man dead in the water") and stick with them, they would be exposed as frauds on election day. What I would be looking out for is if the polls shift significantly toward Trump in the week before the election while there are no events which could explain this shift. In this case, I would say some pollsters were indeed tinkering with their polls to push a narrative during the campaign season, and are now reverting their numbers back to where the race really stands so that they can save face. But we're not there yet.

Trump has run an awful campaign, nothing he does or tries seems to work out for him this year, all external events have played into Biden's hands, and he never had any "popularity or goodwill cushion" to fall back on - so the more logical and simple explanation is that he's indeed losing big right now.



I will say though, some outlier polls are clearly inflated. Like that one Quinnipiac poll the other day showing Biden up by 11 in Florida and 13 in Pennsylvania. Even the chair of Democratic PrioritiesUSA super pac called these numbers out as bullshit:
https://mobile.twitter.com/guycecil/status/1313913531834736641?s=21


but this is exactly 2016, queue "what year is it" Robin Williams meme
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