PredictIt now has Andrew Cuomo as more likely to be President than Bernie Sanders

Biden is now even odds to win the 2020 presidential election. Trump's reelection odds have tanked in recent days/weeks, likely as the economy has taken a downturn due to COVID-19. Biden is even ahead of Trump is some sportsbooks. I expect the economy (and Trump's reelection odds) to rebound in the coming months, but this is no longer the cakewalk reelection bid that Trump seemed to be looking at even just 1 month ago. I'd put his odds at 60% reelection now.

There's a pretty large cone of uncertainty. I'd say 25-75% haha

I dont see a realistic scenario where Trump's chances of reelection exceed 60-ish percent. The coronavirus has played into the Democrats' hand on so many fronts, lol.

Not just that it has robbed Trump of his strongest talking point, the humming economy. It has also exposed Trump's inability to handle a national health crisis with foresight, and it has exposed his inability to act presidential even under the most grave of conditions. It has brought healthcare to the forefront of the public discourse, which is the topic where Democrats hold the largest advantage over Republicans. Moreover, it has taken away Trump's ability to hold his rallies. The lack of public mass events is perfect cover for the lack of enthusiasm of Democratic voters for Biden. In general, coronavirus allows Biden to stay away from the public spotlight, which is a huge plus for him given his propensity for gaffes and the signs of dementia. Also, the number of victims, and their age stratification, might well exceed the margins Trump had in 2016 in a couple of states. The unprecedented hit this crisis delivered on the economy has also forced the GOP to abandon any remnants of fiscal conservatism and to embrace a lot of the policies the Democrats had been calling for for a long time, like paid sick leave.

It's just a gigantic blow for his reelection prospects. If things dont go well, I wouldnt be surprised if the RNC ends up triaging the presidency and tries to hold on to the Senate for dear life.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 25 2020 04:19pm

Republicans will sacrifice grandma on an altar to make sure Trump is re-elected; Democrats will sit at home uninspired waiting for the plague to end of Biden is the candidate.

I'm just hoping Rep. Katie Porter runs in 2024.

Again they are Pro birth... NOT pro life

Agree with that range. There is indeed a lot of uncertainty right now. But if I had to give one number right now, I'd estimate 60%. I still think he has better odds than a coin flip as the incumbent, but things are changing rapidly.



Really astute analysis here. The only positive I can see thus far out of all of this for Trump is if the stimulus bill passed and is deemed a success, he could get some credit for the recovery. People are going to like getting free money. His approval did surprisingly rise to the highest it has ever been despite all the noise, but the better test will be 2-4 weeks from now when we can see a larger breadth of impact rather than the initial fallout.

not surprising imo:




btw, are you going to dodge your false equivalence concerning biden's lies and bernie's alleged ones forever ( https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=82818904&f=119&o=30 ), or are you going to make that promised, detailed reply eventually?

No, I'm not dodging, I'm just waiting for you to calm down and for work to settle down. That's why I've only been shit posting the past couple days.

But suppose something DID happen to Biden. Wouldn't Cuomo make sense since he's dealing with an actual crisis and governing?