from my state broadcaster (Ireland) : Ukrainian officials have raised hopes the war could end sooner than expected, possibly by May, saying Moscow may be coming to terms with its failure to impose a new government by force and running out of fresh troops. "The meetings continue, and, I am informed, the positions during the negotiations already sound more realistic. But time is still needed for the decisions to be in the interests of Ukraine," Mr Zelensky said in a video address ahead of the next round of talks. In a hint of a possible compromise, Mr Zelensky said earlier Ukraine was prepared to accept security guarantees from the West that stop short of its long-term goal of joining NATO.

from Israel : Zelensky says 'no open door' for Ukraine into NATO, questions commitment. President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed more criticism for NATO as he sought independent security guarantees from regional neighbors.

from germany : How Far Is the Russian President Willing To Go?

from the bbc (England) : The prime ministers of Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday evening as a curfew began in Kyiv. Afterwards, the Czech leader told Ukrainians that they are "not alone". The group are the first Western leaders to visit Ukraine since Russia invaded.

from USA : Volodymyr Zelensky urged more leaders to visit Kyiv after a daring visit by three NATO prime ministers.

from aljazeera :

Russia-Ukraine talks will resume on Wednesday; Ukrainian negotiator says there is “room for compromise”.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russian demands in peace talks are becoming “more realistic”.
Prime Ministers of Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia visit Zelenskyy in Kyiv for talks, express solidarity and support
US President Joe Biden will attend NATO, EU summits in Brussels next week: White House.
About 29,000 people were evacuated from Ukrainian cities through humanitarian corridors on Tuesday, most from the besieged city of Mariupol, a senior Ukrainian official says.

from china : The Russian military is suffering so many casualties in Ukraine that it is being forced to redeploy forces from distant areas, according to Western intelligence. In its daily update on the war, the British Department of Defence revealed Russia was “increasingly seeking to generate additional troops to bolster and replace its personnel losses in Ukraine”. “As a result of these losses, it is likely Russia is struggling to conduct offensive operations in the face of sustained Ukrainian resistance. Continued personnel losses will also make it difficult for Russia to secure occupied territory.” Russia is therefore calling upon forces from as far away as its Eastern Military District, Pacific Fleet and Armenia. “It is also increasingly seeking to exploit irregular sources such as private military companies, Syrian and other mercenaries,” said the department.

from russia : West never wanted Kiev to fulfill Minsk deal, Russian diplomat emphasizes. "For seven years, Western countries have been ignoring Russia’s calls to put pressure on Kiev to make it fulfill the Minsk deal," Maria Zakharova noted

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 16 2022 03:04am

I agree with all these points, but then again, the defender's advantage would be far great for countries farther away from Russia. Loss of strength gradient and all that.

Say in the case of Poland or Germany, their better equipment and Ukraine's greater combat experience roughly cancel each other out - then we'd still be left with Russia having to maintain logistics and supply 500-1000km away from their own territory, whereas we can already see them struggle with that right now, 100-200km away from home.

Based on all of the above it looks like ~

1. Ukraine is likely to sign some treaty (in the next 1-3 months) with Russia and the West relating to Nato-non-membership, with the net effect being Ukraine, and Russia, will accept each others security concerns.
2. Ukraine will also keep its current government (read: divorce, from Russia)
3. Russia is also likely to, for want of a better expression, steal/land grab, parts of eastern Ukraine.

The fighting in the intervening time before that (i.e. the chess position) will determine the strength of each sides hand (i.e caveat) when negotiating 1-3.

Therefore I expect the West to redouble its efforts to support Ukraine between now and then, to ensure the current situation does not swing into Russia's favour and with a roadmap to a plausible resolution (in Ukraine) it looks like the issue won't "spill over".

does anyone have another view ?

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 16 2022 04:12am

Russia's original publicly claimed demands are:
1- Ukraine neutral country vis a vis NATO and Russia, and disarmed of heavy weaponry
2- Ukraine concedes Crimea to Russian sovereignty
3- Set up independent republics of Lugansk and Donetsk in the Ukrainian separatist-controlled territories

In the current conditions, Russia did not achieve on the ground enough to implement most of these demands. But we have to see what the final agreement looks like. There is also the issue of sanctions, what will happen to the sanctions if the war stops?

If Russia fails to get all of these demands, and also the new sanctions are not lifted, it will be considered a decisive defeat for Russia and severely weaken them. This could destroy Putin, so short of a coup against him I don't see how he can accept this.

Independent republics of Lugansk and Donetsk == perma war / false falg backed by Russia.
And who will pay the rebuild ? Like a "no worries for detroying our country, all fine, and continue to agress us with proxies"...
Sad, i have strong doubts on the peace ending. Putin being kicked out is the only way.

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 16 2022 04:39am

I have not read enough about Lugansk and Donetsk to provide a view. I thought both of those regions were heavily pro russian, or say rather, occupied by a strong pro-russian military element. Therefore it is reasonable for some sort of decision relating to the region should be considered as part of an overall treaty.
In terms of rebuild and paying, i dont see russia paying (alot or) anything. I expect the international community will provide some sort of aid package.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 16 2022 04:46am

i am sure same countries that sent them guns will be happy to pick up the rebuilding tab too

i dont see a treaty tbh, the warmongers on both sides are not done yet

the russian demands i have heard so far are simply unacceptable, especially since the ukranian army looks like they are doing alright

estonia openly talks about a no fly zone, poland about an armed "peace mission", the puppet selensky is not even entertaining certain terms

there is clearly an interest to pump more weapons into ukraine and keep the conflict and the sanctions against russia going

maybe putin will reach a point soon where he has had enough and the ukranians continue to hold their ground



sure, there are no clean wars and there is no scenario of a fight against separatists without civilian casualties, but if you look at the numbers the disregard is pretty obvious

if what both sides are saying is correct, it looks like Ukraine will relent re: Nato (Noting Nato is not helping them the way they want help). The media (all sides) is suggesting now that there is a road to a ceasefire and agreement. As a leader in wartime i think the Ukrainian leader is doing a great job.

also in terms of Ukrainian army bombing their own people, I would presume that JohnnyMcCoy (above) is referring to actions in Donetsk, which is widely known and acknowledged by all media as well.

if my last comment has incorrectly interpreted your statement just shout.

This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 16 2022 04:54am

update

this poor woman has fled to poland, because she does not feel safe here

my god, germany has become a disgrace