Quote (ferdia @ 15 Mar 2022 22:43)
this is your view. you are entitled to your own view but its not one i agree with. if putin was hellbent on same, he would have done it years ago, not in his twilight.
The circumstances were not right previously, but are much more favorable right now. To elaborate:
- Russia's state finances depend heavily on the oil prices, which were rather low from 2014 through 2021.
- The current gigh prices mean Russia has more financial breathing room to conduct a military operation.
- High demand and low supply on the global markets meant he had more leverage.
- A fossil-unfriendly president in the White House also meant that the American fracking industry wouldn't be able to jump in and alleviate the pressure as easily.
- The new US president having a broken or even non-existent relationship with Saudi leadership also meant that there was less of a chance that the Saudis, or OPEC as a whole, would increase production to counteract the soaring commodity prices.
- Two years of sacrifice and an inflation which had already been picking up pace due to the post-pandemic recovery has really disgruntled consumers/voters in the West, increasing the likelihood that they will ultimately not be willing to make further sacrifices for economic sanctions against Russia.
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 15 2022 08:11pm