Quote (ownyaah @ Dec 15 2022 06:28pm)
When the hegemony breaks, which it will because every single one has broken over 5000? years of history. We will then see movements over time some of which may be military in nature, at that point there will be a new power dynamic, and in turn a lot of agreements prove themselves to have always been toilet paper, or turn into toilet paper as direct consequence.
NATO defending 1million population countries in Baltics in an full-blown multi-millions army war is one of them. No matter what that piece of paper says, NATO partnership/membership/defense is not equal and will never be equal because that is not how power structures work, anyone who says otherwise is overtly naive.
Also you made a big mistake in your previous post, talking about Taiwan. Anyone who is active here knows I really despise speculation, but when it comes to Taiwan, the likelihood of it being part of China within the next 100 years is 99.9999%. As for NATO, Taiwan will never more than a receiver of weapons support, very much like Estonia would in a theoretical situation against a massive foe, but Estonia is much much much much less likely to be invaded in the coming 100 years, unless there is a massive in power balance. As an example, Cuba meant very little to soviets, whilst it meant everything for US - this sort of dynamic is always at play. Estonia means shit to the US in the grand scheme of things.
It's very unlikely that the United States will be the major power forever! But these shifts take time, there is no power in the next 20-30 years that is remotely close to challenging the United States. You need to take a step back and flesh out what your argument is. There are US troops on the ground in the Baltic states, stationed in areas considered likely to be attacked in the event on an invasion. What you believe is that the United States is going to watch Americans die and then withdraw at the cost of both NATO and American international credibility, all because they're afraid to confront a far weaker adversary. That's a very big claim, one which requires a lot of supporting evidence, and all I've heard so far is "Estonia is small". The geopolitical impact of abandoning the Baltic states would be severe, and it's not in keeping with how American foreign policy has operated recently, or over the past ~70 years.
Taiwan's future depends on who wins the upcoming struggle between China and the United States. Taiwan is critical to both American and Japanese defense. Without Taiwan, the United States loses the first island chain and Japan loses the ability to defend Okinawa. So long as the United States and Japan have the ability to defend Taiwan, they will. Invading Taiwan will result in war.