Quote (ownyaah @ Dec 15 2022 04:45pm)
Let me ask you a simple question: Do you think NATO reaction would be same if Russian/Chinese empire in 2050 invaded Germany or Estonia?
For starters, NATO response is written in a way where they could get away with "just" supplying weapons, as "sufficient" means.
Secondly, International agreements, defensive agreements whatever(any agreements between countries) aren't as binding as you think they are. History is filled to the brim with examples where nations in the end act in their own self-interests, or through a geopolitical lenses.
Viewing some piece of agreement as some sort of god-written, god-backed and timeless agreement is beyond ridiculous, as proven by history time and time again.
Bold - "Nations have no permanent friends and no permanent enemies, only permanent interests." Sure, so let's take a look at the interests.
Finland is a small, 5 million strong nation that historically fell within the bounds of the Russian Empire. What do you think their response to an invasion of the Baltics is going to be? They were concerned enough with the invasion of Ukraine to drop a policy of neutrality that had lasted for close to a hundred years. Sweden was concerned enough that it dropped a policy of neutrality that had lasted for 200 years. Poland is a 38 million strong nation that has spent the vast majority of the past ~150 years under the sway of the Russian Empire in some form or fashion. What is their attitude going to be with respect to renewed Russian aggression in the Baltics? The United States is the dominant military power in Europe. If we refer to Machiavelli's maxims on statecraft, should a large power (like the United States) seek to ally with small powers or other large powers? Machiavelli would say the small, it's almost always better to ally with powers that pose you no risk to the detriment of larger powers which do.
Russia has 143 million people. The former USSR has double that. Russia itself is not a threat to the United States in any meaningful sense of the word, on the other hand a renewed Russian Empire could be someday. And at the same time, Russia is an ideological ally to the Chinese, who represent the only realistic threat to American hegemony. I think the United States would be happy to be on good terms with Russia, but not on good terms with a Russia far stronger than it is today.
Besides all this, American credibility is on the line. If the United States does not defend NATO, then American credibility elsewhere is shattered. If the United States won't honor signed defensive pacts, is there any chance that they'd make a big deal over Taiwan? Japan?