Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 15 2022 09:11pm)
Russia already has missiles pointed at it, so this scenario changes their strategic position less than you might think.
Also, this scenario of Ukraine just joining NATO was already off the table when Putin took the Donbass and created a frozen conflict that he could turn "hot" again whenever needed. Countries with an ongoing war cannot join NATO, so the only real option for Ukraine to become eligible for a NATO membership was to cede these regions in its east, which was politically unfeasible for any government in Kyiv. Therefore, Putin had already achieved his objective of making a Ukrainian NATO membership all but impossible in 2014.
There are only two realistic explanations for Russia's recent actions:
- Putin is hellbent on restoring former Soviet glory
- Putin is scared that a "democratic success" in Russia's immediate neighborhood could ignite the democratic spark at home and undermine his domestic power
this is your view. you are entitled to your own view but its not one i agree with. if putin was hellbent on same, he would have done it years ago, not in his twilight.
Quote (JohnnyMcCoy @ Mar 15 2022 09:27pm)
i think putin is more scared of having a western oriented ukraine at russias "underbelly" as a base for messing with its (or better putins) politics
for that reason russia already made their move in georgia back in the day
there was more to it within georgia of course, but with a western oriented version of it its only a matter of time until some shit starts to happen in russias caucasus regions
why are people so obsessed with the "nobody is going to invade russia" argument, which is beyond obvious, when history has clearly taught us that you dont need an invasion to threaten another country
the united states almost triggered the next great war over missiles in cuba
ukraine is the unfortunate victim of two big blocks and their geopolitical games
agree with all that
This post was edited by ferdia on Mar 15 2022 03:44pm