Sources: DNC beside themselves. Driving around downtown Las Vegas begging (thru texts) Warren's family to keep her in the primary race to stop Barney Sandals.”

word is Joe Biden is challenging random people in South Carolina to push up contests to prove he has a shot of winning Nevada

Before the primaries started I thought Harris could win it. When they heated up I figured it would be Biden, maybe Warren.

Democrats are going to pick the socialist who had a heart attack during the campaign?

remember when HRC fell down like 3 stairs and people raised doubts about her health? but bernie has a heart attack and they say he's passionate.

She was all weekend at Bernie's for awhile there lol.




Yeah I know.

They should nominate the mayor from Indiana for the Kennedy effect.

i remember fox news wildly speculating that she may have some kind of rare blood disease when she just like slipped down some stairs lol. fucking wild.

Still a long way to go. It seems that volatile primaries are really good indicators for political realignment within the party.

I listened to a Daily episode on Bernie going all in on the Latino vote and how it was a big risk since they don't typically turn out much. It seems to be working though because Sanders has the lead in both CA and TX now. We'll find out on Super Tuesday! Biden is still pretty strong in the South according to polling in Georgia and Florida. Bloomberg's ad blitz is clearly working as well.

One question I have is if there is a contested convention, what plurality % do you need in order to claim that you should be the nominee. IMO, it depends on 3 factors.
1) Absolute numbers
2) The number of candidates
3) The margin of your plurality

In the current field, I think a candidate needs 35% of the delegates at a minimum with a 5% lead of 2nd place. I think the DNC will ultimately force the candidate with the most votes to pick a balancing VP. For instance, a Sanders Klobuchar ticket might happen or a Biden Warren. Hell, we might even have a Bloomberg Abrams ticket.

Sanders going all in on the latino vote might prove fruitful in the primaries, but I think it would be a disaster in the general. Trump being able to run against an unabashed socialist who also blatantly admits to open borders policies, and who has said in the past that "bread lines are a good thing" as well as "even the Boston marathon bomber should be able to vote"? This would indeed be a rerun of Nixon vs McGovern.

When it comes to the plurality: imho, it will depend on who the plurality-holder is. For Bernie, a plurality with 35% of delegates would almost surely not be enough to clinch the nomination. Even 40% might be too little for him. On the other hand, the party would imho rally quickly behind someone like Biden, Buttigieg or Warren with a 40+% plurality and 5+% margin. Bloomberg and Klobuchar might be unacceptable for the progressive wing though, so they would probably need a stronger plurality to avoid a contested convention (in the literal sense of the word).

About the tickets: Biden and Warren hate each other, they would definitely not run together. Klobuchar imho is too much of a centrist and incrementalist to fit Bernie's campaign. And Bernie might want a women of color to balance the ticket demographically. Bloomberg Abrams imho also makes no sense. Abrams is all about changing or breaking up structures which disempower poor people and persons of color. Bloomberg's run is all about preserving the hierarchy/power balance of the country.

A really intriguing option imho would be a Bernie/Abrams ticket. She is probably the most prominent woman of color around, give his campaign a ton of woke points, and instantly give him a foothold with black voters. Such a ticket imho has the potential to steamroll the primary field.

Well, according to the latest polling, Sanders is only down 2 points to Trump in TEXAS. While I'm certain that espousing socialism when the economy is great and espousing open borders when the American people REALLY don't want it is a recipe for an electoral landslide in Trump's favor, I'm legitimately nervous.

If Sanders has 35% and Biden has 30%, Sanders will be the nominee because riots would occur. The same thing would happen if the situation was reversed. Sanders would probably have to take the VP slot if Biden wins. If SANDERS wins, Biden would simply say that it's time for someone new and he'd allow his delegates to choose Sanders' VP. As for Biden/Warren and Sanders/Klobuchar, my point is that their differences shouldn't MATTER. If we're in a contested convention, then you either have to suck it up and accept the position OR make a very public statement in support of the ticket. If you don't do that, Trump wins no matter what.

Of course Sanders can defeat Trump if things really go his way. It's just very unlikely. We're talking about Trump after all, the guy will always find a way to shoot himself in the foot whenever things are going too well for him. Case in point: the last week where he needlessly proposed a budget with lots of cuts to social security, and where he needlessly dragged the whole Roger Stone thing into the public with his idiotic tweets. And now Trump's feuding, on twitter no less, with his own AG who has always been an effective and perfectly loyal trooper. Jesus fuck why doesnt the moron EVER learn?

Anyway, the modal outcome of a Sanders/Trump race is still a decisive victory for Trump imho.



If the primaries end with the result that no candidate can get more than 35% of the party behind his/her candidacy, the Dems are fucked no matter what imho.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Feb 14 2020 02:08pm