Quote (Djunior @ 7 Dec 2022 22:55)
No you're wrong. I said at the beginning that it would be over in months but because the West supported Ukraine on a massive scale that obviously didn't happen.
Russia's offense had already been stopped before large-scale Western weapons supplies arrived. They are what turned around the momentum and allowed Ukraine to go on the counteroffense for a bit, but they are not what originally stopped Russia.
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However I added immediately Ukraine could never win because Russia hadn't even mobilized. Now Russia is mobilizing and gearing up for a massive offensive (700K troops are mentioned)
Russia has already mobilized 300k quite recently. It stabilized their front, but didn't give them back the initiative. It also didn't prevent Ukraine from taking back Kherson. Nor did it lead to the Bachmut front getting overrun.
And even with this mobilization, there was already noticeable dissent and grumbling in Russia. Drafting twice as many folks, most of them against their will, will neither be easy nor without risk for Putin. How much difference it will make in a spring offense will depend on the quality of the training these conscripts will receive over the winter. Spoiler: it will suck.
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It's you and your ilk that've been cheering on Ukraine while the reality is that their soldiers were falling in masses.
Russia and Ukraine are both sustaining heavy losses. With the big difference being that Ukraine is fighting for its survival while Russia is fighting to restore some vague sense of former glory.
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They've only won time, won back a little ground at a huge cost and now Russia is getting ready for take two.
Guess we will have to wait and see how this plays out.
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If you persist I've been saying this since June (when they had not even started to mobilize) then post quotes of mine proving that, lol.
I will surely not sift through 1800 pages to find specific quotes, lol.
And yes, as early as June, the prevailing take from the "Russia will still win"-faction here in this thread was something to the gist of "Russia might have underestimated Ukraine and botched the initial attack by going in with too few troops - but once they take things seriously, they will steamroll Ukraine".
This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Dec 7 2022 04:32pm