Quote (Vastet @ Nov 23 2022 08:02am)
Noone except the West believes Russia is unreliable because everyone knows the West is why Russia isn't reliable for the West.
Prolonging the war is giving Ukraine to Russia on a platter to carve up as they choose.
The facts speak for themselves. Putin weaponised energy supply. Europe was a reliable customer; Russia has not been a reliable supplier.
Quote (Norlander @ Nov 23 2022 06:07am)
That's why the West have to prolong this war for the sanctions to work as intended, cripple Russian economycs and make them leave Ukraine and start fixing their own country.
I agree in principle, although I don't think that Ukraine or its allies want to prolong the war for sanctions to work. Sanctions will work as intended and likely continue for some time after a ceasefire. I would argue the sanctions have not gone far enough in scope. They tried to target Russian elite, however if normal Russian's support Putin's war, something we can deduct from the lack of protest, and high level of state propaganda/ forced narrative. Then everyday Russians should be directly affected with more sanctions.
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 23 2022 07:25am)
By shutting down the gas supplies of their own accord, Russia has alienated its best customer and demonstrated its unreliability to the rest of the world. In the long run, they are economically fucked anyway.
Imho, the main reason to prolong this war is to grind down Russia's army as much as we can, so that it will take them as many years as possible before they have replenished their military and restored their ability to wage wars of aggression.
NATO countries are laughing all the way to bank.
- Information on Russia's capabilities, or lack thereof
- Lend leasing arms to Ukraine, and likely taking payment from seized Russian funds as reperation
- Testing out military equipment against the supposed second largest military force in the world, without losing troops of its own
There seems to be this belief that Russia can absorb any losses and win an attritional war. Mostly based on historical outcomes and Russia's landmass and population.
Any truth in that belief is balanced out by real-time costs. Loss of military officers, huge loss of hardware, divulgence of strategy and tactics, loss of domestic manpower to the draft.
Winning an attritional war in Ukraine will hamstring Russia from any other imperial landgrabs, for multiple generations.