d2jsp
Log InRegister
d2jsp Forums > Off-Topic > General Chat > Political & Religious Debate > Democrat Division Megathread
Prev1173174175176177205Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll
Member
Posts: 54,184
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Feb 10 2020 12:07am
Quote (Goomshill @ 10 Feb 2020 06:57)
So the conventional wisdom is that if Buttigieg or Sanders get the nomination, Trump sails to an easy, easy reelection.
But the conventional wisdom was that if Trump got the nomination, Clinton sails to an easy, easy election.
I guess the difference is that the viability in 2020 is being based off looking at actual voting demographics and how they swing, whereas in 2016 it was just dogma and the hubris of establishment.
If Buttigieg actually somehow got the lead over Biden and didn't split enough with Amy that he could survive Biden's southern black wall- or Bernie doing the same- either way it has the result of a democrat who polls terribly with black voters, at the same time Trump is hinging his reelection on pandering to the black vote and seeking to break up the democrat's hegemony. He's hammering away at that hard. Can you imagine a race where Buttigieg polls with 1% of black primary voters, then has to go into a presidential election where he needs Obama levels of turnout and 92%+ of the black vote just to have a close race? If having a gay white moderate resulted in -25% turnout and an 80/20 split vote, Trump would win in a landslide.


and the most funny part of it is that blacks are actually positioned very efficiently in the electoral college. they are a pivotal voting block in florida, north carolina, pennsylvania AND michigan. trump could lose arizona and still win comfortably:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/Q6xl2
Member
Posts: 49,289
Joined: Jun 18 2006
Gold: 11.77
Feb 10 2020 12:21am
Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 10 2020 12:57am)
So the conventional wisdom is that if Buttigieg or Sanders get the nomination, Trump sails to an easy, easy reelection.
But the conventional wisdom was that if Trump got the nomination, Clinton sails to an easy, easy election.

I guess the difference is that the viability in 2020 is being based off looking at actual voting demographics and how they swing, whereas in 2016 it was just dogma and the hubris of establishment.
If Buttigieg actually somehow got the lead over Biden and didn't split enough with Amy that he could survive Biden's southern black wall- or Bernie doing the same- either way it has the result of a democrat who polls terribly with black voters, at the same time Trump is hinging his reelection on pandering to the black vote and seeking to break up the democrat's hegemony. He's hammering away at that hard. Can you imagine a race where Buttigieg polls with 1% of black primary voters, then has to go into a presidential election where he needs Obama levels of turnout and 92%+ of the black vote just to have a close race? If having a gay white moderate resulted in -25% turnout and an 80/20 split vote, Trump would win in a landslide.


I had the same thought. I do think there's a fair amount of Trump hype in media and Democrat circles. They got 2016 wrong, and psychologically they don't want to be surprised again. I feel like I do the same thing, predicting Trump's victory even though his presidency has been one of appealing to the base and acting like an idiot. I'd like to think that a president who acts like he does can't be the favorite to win re-election.

Hard to argue with the rest of your analysis though.
Member
Posts: 54,184
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Feb 10 2020 12:29am
Quote (IceMage @ 10 Feb 2020 07:21)
I had the same thought. I do think there's a fair amount of Trump hype in media and Democrat circles. They got 2016 wrong, and psychologically they don't want to be surprised again. I feel like I do the same thing, predicting Trump's victory even though his presidency has been one of appealing to the base and acting like an idiot. I'd like to think that a president who acts like he does can't be the favorite to win re-election.

Hard to argue with the rest of your analysis though.


I think there are good reasons to consider Trump the favorite: most presidents win reelection, a strong economy REALLY helps the incumbent, there are no major wars, it doesnt seem like any candidate on the Democratic side could really unite the entire party behind his/her candicacy, the "trump coalition" still appears to hold a significant advantage in the EC, the anti-trump backlash seems to have peaked in the 2018 midterms (Ds led the generic congressional ballot by 8.6% back then, now, it's at D+5.5).

A less erratic and divisive president than Trump would be nearly unbeatable with these fundamentals. There are a couple of things going against him, so I still dont think he's more than a 60:40 favorite, if even that.
Member
Posts: 53,368
Joined: Sep 2 2004
Gold: 57.00
Feb 10 2020 12:46am
Quote (theCrossbones @ 9 Feb 2020 23:48)
why post this? even if it were true no R would give 2 fuks..
right?

“even if it were true” as if bloomberg didnt say it?

as for why it was posted:
d2jsp Forums > General Chat > Political & Religious Discussion > Democrat Division Megathread

stick to yelling at the sky you junior boomer pale pasty privileged lefty lmfao, pathetic..

Quote (Black XistenZ @ 10 Feb 2020 00:06)
Yeah, the young Bernie crowd will totally turnout in force on election day to vote for the out of touch billionaire vowing to fight marijuana legalization with everything he's got after he quite literally bought the nomination/stole it from Bernie. :rofl:

There's just no way Bloomberg can become the Democratic nominee without taking stances on social policy that shred the "centrist and electable for wavering republicans fed up by Trump"-pitch on which his campaign rationale rests.


in the general electiok he is the best foil for Trump imo

but yeah, how much of the (D) voter base revolts due to him buying the primary? he will spend more than Trump + Clinton did combined the entire 2016 cycle by like April at this rate lol
Member
Posts: 50,915
Joined: Jan 20 2010
Gold: 5,335.99
Feb 10 2020 04:47am
So I want to delve into what's actually in the minds of some of the more extreme elements of political fringes, in this case the Bernie bros;
https://twitter.com/BernieOrElse/status/1226668911405543424
https://old.reddit.com/user/joinantifa

that's one disturbing read. Basically, a "web designer" and "graphic designer" suffers from mental illness / depression and identifies as being a sick person who has his 'healthcare' dominate his entire life, representing a large burden of therapy and prescription drugs just to treat a non-physical ailment. He quits his job so that he'll have no income and qualify for medicaid as an existential choice to live or die- the threat being suicide, not leukemia or heart failure or brain cancer. Can no longer afford his apartment and sleeps on a friends couch, apparently not springing for housing assistance, lives off EBT, does essentially zero work whatsoever or provide any benefit to society beyond "one DJ gig a month for $200", doesn't go out or date, and is now devoted to campaigning for Bernie and launching a website for a petition for democrats to insist they will only vote for Bernie and oppose any other primary candidate in the general election, the true Bernie-or-Bust.

The same person who posted it also identifies as Antifa and has a pretty lengthy post history on reddit, enough that I'm confident the thread isn't a high-quality ruse and troll. I mean, I got a little bit of Poe's Law vibes, but a few months of timestamped similar posts make clear its real. Behind that public Bernie front, that poster has a bunch of comments promoting Antifa riots, threatening Andy Ngo, saying he hopes Trump is assassinated, supporting Chris Dorner, attacking Biden and 'liberals'.



Now I'm not going to pretend for even a minute that this is representative of 90% of Bernie's supporters, but it does seem like one hell of an insight into the dark fringes. Like reading through the ramblings of a klansman or neo-nazi or moorish sovereign citizen or black hebrew israelite, except at least the language is legible in this case. Would I be surprised if within the next couple years this guy is arrested after attempting (and most likely failing) a terrorist attack or serious political violence? Nope. People who exist on the fringes of society, who have nothing to lose, no life, clear mental illness, a proclivity towards violence, hold extreme political beliefs? All the warning signs are there. The only reason I stumbled onto this example was by browsing CTH to see if they're banned yet or not.
Member
Posts: 17,060
Joined: Jan 29 2007
Gold: 6,870.93
Feb 10 2020 04:51am
Bernie has been a rock of his own for a very long time.. Surrounded by the right,and their shadow inc...
Member
Posts: 93,001
Joined: Dec 31 2007
Gold: 2,299.94
Feb 10 2020 12:31pm
Quote (excellence @ Feb 10 2020 12:24pm)


is the calculated oppression of stomping on 2 minority groups additive or multiplicative? just trying to calculate how many woke points Mayo Pete will need to offset this wrongdoing. maybe a few events with him picking cotton in chains will remind voters he's at least as sorry as BP for the oil spill.
Member
Posts: 54,184
Joined: May 26 2005
Gold: 4,945.67
Feb 10 2020 12:36pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 10 Feb 2020 19:31)
is the calculated oppression of stomping on 2 minority groups additive or multiplicative? just trying to calculate how many woke points Mayo Pete will need to offset this wrongdoing. maybe a few events with him picking cotton in chains will remind voters he's at least as sorry as BP for the oil spill.


Was thinking about something like this:
Member
Posts: 53,368
Joined: Sep 2 2004
Gold: 57.00
Feb 10 2020 12:37pm
Quote (thesnipa @ 10 Feb 2020 13:31)
is the calculated oppression of stomping on 2 minority groups additive or multiplicative? just trying to calculate how many woke points Mayo Pete will need to offset this wrongdoing. maybe a few events with him picking cotton in chains will remind voters he's at least as sorry as BP for the oil spill.


it’s exponential sir. Mayo Pete will have to apologize for all the sins of pale pasty privileged lefties since the pilgrims landed on Plymouth Rock to make up for his mistakes of these wrongdoings

the next debate should start off with how Warren and ..nvm theres no more black candidates on the left.. well then how Al Sharpton feel about all this

Go Back To Political & Religious Debate Topic List
Prev1173174175176177205Next
Add Reply New Topic New Poll