Quote (Goomshill @ Feb 10 2020 12:57am)
So the conventional wisdom is that if Buttigieg or Sanders get the nomination, Trump sails to an easy, easy reelection.
But the conventional wisdom was that if Trump got the nomination, Clinton sails to an easy, easy election.
I guess the difference is that the viability in 2020 is being based off looking at actual voting demographics and how they swing, whereas in 2016 it was just dogma and the hubris of establishment.
If Buttigieg actually somehow got the lead over Biden and didn't split enough with Amy that he could survive Biden's southern black wall- or Bernie doing the same- either way it has the result of a democrat who polls terribly with black voters, at the same time Trump is hinging his reelection on pandering to the black vote and seeking to break up the democrat's hegemony. He's hammering away at that hard. Can you imagine a race where Buttigieg polls with 1% of black primary voters, then has to go into a presidential election where he needs Obama levels of turnout and 92%+ of the black vote just to have a close race? If having a gay white moderate resulted in -25% turnout and an 80/20 split vote, Trump would win in a landslide.
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