Of course, I’m not suggesting they found anything near the scale of what is in Russia, that would be foolish. I’m suggesting that they have found a sizable amount and we’re beginning to come to the point where they were it was reasonable to assume they were going to start working towards production. They would also be using their own existing pipeline(one the Russians pay billions every year to use) and would be in a position to make up some of the shortfalls of Russia attempted to use LNG as leverage. After all, the EU gets roughly forty percent of its natural gas from Russia. The Ukrainians being able to even fill a quarter of that(10% of total EU usage), would mean far less impact in Europe. Having to cut usage by 30 percent would be difficult, but is achievable. Long term a thirty percent cut in usage is almost guaranteed due to regulatory changes in Europe.

My point was never that Ukraine could replace Russia as a massive supplier to Europe, instead it is that they could certainly take some of the sting away if they had more developed resources and could drive the prices down due to not having to pay tariffs on natural gas in their pipelines. Both of these are things that hurt the Russians, the first takes some leverage away, the second takes money away.

This post was edited by nolajack on Mar 13 2022 02:14pm

Neither of these points justifies a war though, from a cold, calculated, cost-focused perspective. The potential loss in revenue from gas sales to Ukraine pales in comparison to what even the best case scenario for this war would have cost Russia, let alone the actual, much longer campaign.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 13 2022 04:06pm

Anyway its very notable that Russian airstrikes killed {35 ukraine propaganda, 180 russian propaganda estimates} at the westernmost military base, west of Lviv, right at the polish border. Targeting western military supplies and potentially mercenaries / foreign fighters, at the NATO staging grounds used for previous training and shared exercises. Very deep into the west ukraine that isnt an active warzone, where the US and EU were rallying their pseudo intervention. May have killed US/EU nonstate actors. Goes right to the heart of the current Russia-NATO escalation, as opposed to the Russia-Ukraine fight for the cities encircled in the east

Yup, these airstrikes close to the Polish border are clearly intended to send a signal to NATO.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Mar 13 2022 06:36pm

Of course not, but unfortunately this thinking doesn’t work(in my opinion). Do you really think that Russia invaded Ukraine for 1 reason entirely? Or do you think it was likely multiple reasons? Do multiple reasons get covered by the umbrella of one larger reason? It’s very rare that war has one reason or motivation, it’s usually a combination of factors.

Territorial ambition, feeling NATO is a threat, economic security, leverage via controlling natural gas, wanting to reconstitute the old Soviet empire, the geographical concerns for self defense(wanting more control over the plains leading east to make invasion more difficult), etc.

This post was edited by nolajack on Mar 13 2022 06:45pm

Jan, is an EU citizen who lives and works in Moscow. "On 20 February I ordered groceries for 5,500 roubles [about $57; £44] and now the same basket costs 8,000," he says. The price of milk has almost doubled in the past two weeks, he adds.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60647543

"I remember the huge queues to buy sausage..."

...

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Mar 13 2022 09:48pm

In response to Ukraine's purported 16,000 foreign fighters from the west, Russia claims it has recruited 16,000 shia fighters from syria and iran and is bringing them to ukraine. Making that comparison to the Syrian War a bit more literal. Same countries in a proxy war, same weapons, same brutality, different climate

Also;

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/russia-missile-attack-yavoriv-ukraine-american-fighters/

Confirmed that foreign fighters including from the US and UK were at the compound destroyed by Russia's missile strike. Western sources claim 35 dead and no foreigners among them, Russia claims 'up to 180' dead, truth probably inbetween. So yeah that was the main staging ground and storage for foreign forces and weapons that the west has been delivering, and Russia blew it to smithereens. Could be dead Americans but we may not find out, given the volunteer/mercenary status

Regime change and withdrawal any moment now