I think if they touch Crimea, Nukes will be really on.

I would like to give credit to , it was from him, we shared and discuss this privately and not in the thread because we might ruffle some feathers with our comments.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Nov 11 2022 11:58am

Ukraine is 100% going to invade/move on Crimea.

Things will go boom then. USA might prevent it. The world just cannot fight on two fronts.
If Ukraine move in on Crimea it will be much latter. We are playing on time. This will be a long long war.
If Ukraine move in on Crimea and Russia uses tactical, I wouldn't be surprised if China will move in on Taiwan at that moment.

The West might find it difficult to handle both theater at the same time. Especially if both are Nuclear powers.
Tentatively speaking, I believe China will move in on Taiwan around 2031 to 2032 during almost the end of Xi's 4th term. He might get a 5th Term, it depends.

So if USA allows Zelensky to move in on Crimea too early, it will be a tactical and strategic mistake.

But all this will be a moot point if Putin kick the bucket next year. But things might get worst if someone who is 10 times more hawkish than Putin takes over.
My 2 cents worth.

Ukraine has repeatedly stated that they are moving on crimea. the US knows this as well. anyway, its next year. we will see what happens.

They can say a lot of things.
In mandarin there is this phrase 人算不如天算。
Just like 10 months back when there are people thinking that Russia can take Ukraine easily.

The nuances of this cannot be translated directly.
But to explain it.

The calculations of men will never supersede that of the heavens.

This post was edited by Hamsterbaby on Nov 11 2022 12:17pm

I'd argue that wherever you land in that range of border outcomes doesn't matter. All of them have the same of effect of an extremely weakened Russia

Man proposes, but God disposes

pretty much

This would be a huge calculation mistake. There are obvious nuclear risks, but beyond that an offensive would surely bolster the near non-existent Russian troop moral. Ukraine would be best to push for Day 1 borders from image above, maybe retake Crimea at a later date once Russia implodes some more domestically. That day may never come with their allies propping em up though. Day 1 still best bet

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Nov 11 2022 01:53pm

i completely agree with you re: calculated mistake, but i still think thats what they are going to do.