Quote (Black XistenZ @ Mar 13 2022 06:41am)
That's the big question regarding NATO. Imho, all NATO countries would definitely go to war against Russia to defend Poland or Romania. For the simple reason that Russians advancing into these countries would necessarily imply that they're trying to put pressure toward Western Europe. Hence, the Germans, French and yes, also the Americans would want to wage this hypothetical war - which has just become inevitable in this scenario - as far to the east as possible.
The Baltics are the achilles heel of the current NATO configuration, similar to how East Berlin was the obvious achilles heel during the Cold War. In terms of economics, politics and geostrategic importance, the Baltics are definitely not worth risking a nuclear war with Russia. On the other hand, not defending them would render NATO itself obsolete. Once NATO doesn't act on a clear-cut case of Article 5, the organization will be doomed forever. So from an upholding-NATO-credibility standpoint, the Baltics would definitely have to be defended.
Good analysis imo. Poland is of particular importance due to geography. All the discussion about "geopolitics" and barely ever the geography part of it is mentioned.
I recommend watching this brief video for those who think this war has anything to do 'being surrounded by free nations' or whatever
In geopolitics, if you don't know what an opponent will do, you must assume he will do the worst and plan accordingly.
For Russia, NATO's expansion past natural geographic barriers and into the open plains close to it's core population centers can not be seen except as a major threat.