10/3 afternoon update alot of movement today:

Biden 5/9
Trump 3/2
Pence 40/1
Harris 60/1

Sunday 10/4 update:

Biden 5/8
Trump 27/20

are bids on Trump's survival available ?

This post was edited by Saucisson6000 on Oct 4 2020 09:39am

A crude estimate can be derived from Pence's odds of becoming president. The current odds for Trump vs Biden translate roughly into a 38% chance for Trump to win reelection. (Calculate the implied probabilities from the fractional odds, add up, adjust for the overround.)
Pence's correspond to a ~2.4% probability.

If Trump dies or becomes incapacitated before the election, Pence would take his place. Assuming that Pence's chances against Biden would be approximately the same (better personal conduct than Trump, less charisma and cult following among the base), then his 2.4% probability are the result of multiplying our desired probability for the "Trump dies scenario" with these 38%, i.e. 0.38*x = 0.024 ----> x = 0.063. Hence, the betting markets think there is about a 6.3% chance that Trump dies or becomes so sick he has to drop out of the race.

Note that this is a crude estimate, crucially relies on the assumption that the betting markets would give Pence about the same chance against Biden as Trump, and combines the "Trump dies" and the "Trump has to drop out" scenarios.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 4 2020 12:22pm

Well thanks i appreciate this estimate and i think it's a fair realistic one, thus i would still bet 50€ on it.

You're better not cuz you're still in debt, betting that huge sum on a hillary win 4 years ago

lol

If you have a problem with debts:



now fuck off with your personal attacks

I don't bet, why should I. Also I don't have ANY debt now how about that frenchy ^^

You're just showing us what an absolute piece of shit you are to bet money on the health of other people. Disgusting piece of crap

I suggest you gtfo instead

the only piece of shit is the one who raised you.

now now children. i feel sorry for every user here's mother