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Nov 6 2022 05:07pm
Quote (HeLiCaL @ 6 Nov 2022 23:25)
USA + UK leadership that chose to sacrifice ukreich lives by enforcing the collapse of early peace deal

and crossdresser Zolinsky that accepted this demand from his owners, further accepting/prolonging sacrifice of lives from people whos interests he was supposed to uphold

https://i.imgur.com/nL8jzoQ.jpg


People have a mouth... Fascinating.
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Nov 6 2022 05:34pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 6 2022 03:50pm)
I think this is a misrepresentation of how things actually went down. Russia was never able to establish proper air superiority and Kyiv's missile defense system seems to have been doing a good job. What presumably turned the tide in this regard are the Iranian suicide drones, which are hard to detect early and can be sent in swarms where it's enough if just 10-20% survive the AA and reach the target. If this interpretation is correct, the timing of Ukraine's infrastructure breaking down was due to a Russian desperation move proving unexpectedly effective, rather than due to brilliant long-term strategy.


I don't think any of this really adds up. Most of the damage is still chalked up to cruise missiles or artillery strikes. The towns completely leveled were done by normal bombardment. Drone actions have been more sporadic and used for public spectacle. And there's really no evidence Ukraine has been successful in deflecting most missile attacks. We can know for a fact that Russia did not bombard the civilian infrastructure of population centers like Kiev during the first 8 or whatever months of the war, but then in the past few weeks has turned around and done exactly that. Its not like Russia kept trying and failing to do it. The only reasonable assessment is that they have now chosen to do it. And we can try to decipher the reasons of 'why now'

Even the Ukrainian propaganda media openly acknowledges that the attacks in the past few days on Kiev were missiles, not drones.

Quote
On the morning of Monday Oct. 31, Russia launched another wave of missile attacks against Ukrainian critical infrastructure. The weapons targeted the power grid and knocked entire city districts offline. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said some areas of the capital were left without electricity and 80 percent of Kyiv residents were left without a water supply.

“Currently, due to the emergency situation in Kyiv, 80 percent of consumers remain without water,” the city’s mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram. “Engineers are also working to restore power to 350,000 homes in Kyiv that were left without electricity.”

Kyiv city authorities have asked citizens to stock up on water.

“Please stock up on water from the nearest pump rooms and points of sale. Specialists are doing everything possible to return water to the apartments of Kyiv residents,” stated an official message of the Kyiv administration.

The authorities said that there are 350,000 apartments in Kyiv that have been left without electricity due to Russian shelling. Engineers are working to restore the power supply.

Kharkiv

According to Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov, Russians hit a critical infrastructure facility the same morning, which disconnected power to the subway and ground transportation in Kharkiv.

“We have managed to launch the Kholodnohirsk-Zavodska line, and replaced trolleybuses and trams with buses,” he said.

According to Terekhov, the city is also having problems with its water supply. Power engineers and utility companies are working to eliminate the problem.

Russia reportedly fired more than 50 missiles at Ukraine’s critical infrastructure on Oct. 31, of which 44 were intercepted by Ukraine military.


Based on normal ratios, I'd guess this translates to "Russia fired 8 missiles and hit 8 targets", because every time Russia shoots missiles the Ukrainian media claims they shot down 90% of them and the ones that got through were just a small fraction, except they don't post any evidence. But when they shoot at a missile they post tons of videos of it to social media, even if they failed to stop it.
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Nov 6 2022 05:40pm
I suppose one question is: If this was timed deliberately by the Russians as a means to knock out critical infrastructure in Ukraine before western aid could be readjusted to supply generators / water / heat / etc on the massive scale required to both accommodate millions and be decentralized enough to survive bombardment- then was this too early? Its not going to drop below freezing in Ukraine for weeks, a few hours at night at most. If its possible at all to restore infrastructure, I think they could still plausibly do it. But if it comes down to moving the population into bunkers to have water/electricity/heat in the winter, that can't possibly work out for millions, so we're still looking at a refugee wave.

The counterpoint is that if Russia's goal was to get Ukrainians to abandon Kiev and move civilians out, this would leave them plenty of time before bombed out roads could become impassable in the winter and foot travel impossible. In effect, showing the population the futility of staying, when they still have a choice.
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Nov 6 2022 05:50pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Nov 7 2022 01:34am)
The only reasonable assessment is that they have now chosen to do it. And we can try to decipher the reasons of 'why now'


timing coincides with Russian army command given to a new guy
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Nov 6 2022 06:48pm
Here's something cool:

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Nov 6 2022 09:16pm
https://www.yahoo.com/news/power-blackouts-hit-ukraine-amid-112300722.html

Ukraine's power company gave an online statement claiming "scheduled blackouts" would take place in Kiev and other major cities and then hours later amended it to say "emergency outages" of indeterminate length would be necessary
Yeah sounds like they are totally in control and this is all just scheduled maintenance work and has nothing to do with being pounded by missiles.


What's the endgame here? Millions of civilians are still present in Ukraine and about to go into winter with all their infrastructure destroyed. At some point the humanitarian crisis of a mass refugee wave is a better outcome than Holodomor 2.0
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Nov 6 2022 09:34pm
Quote (Goomshill @ 7 Nov 2022 06:16)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/power-blackouts-hit-ukraine-amid-112300722.html

Ukraine's power company gave an online statement claiming "scheduled blackouts" would take place in Kiev and other major cities and then hours later amended it to say "emergency outages" of indeterminate length would be necessary
Yeah sounds like they are totally in control and this is all just scheduled maintenance work and has nothing to do with being pounded by missiles.


Palasan called it "light-masking"
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Nov 6 2022 09:35pm
Quote (Goomshill @ Nov 6 2022 06:40pm)
I suppose one question is: If this was timed deliberately by the Russians as a means to knock out critical infrastructure in Ukraine before western aid could be readjusted to supply generators / water / heat / etc on the massive scale required to both accommodate millions and be decentralized enough to survive bombardment- then was this too early? Its not going to drop below freezing in Ukraine for weeks, a few hours at night at most. If its possible at all to restore infrastructure, I think they could still plausibly do it. But if it comes down to moving the population into bunkers to have water/electricity/heat in the winter, that can't possibly work out for millions, so we're still looking at a refugee wave.

The counterpoint is that if Russia's goal was to get Ukrainians to abandon Kiev and move civilians out, this would leave them plenty of time before bombed out roads could become impassable in the winter and foot travel impossible. In effect, showing the population the futility of staying, when they still have a choice.


Refugee wave, more monetary pressure on EU to pay for Ukraine. Ukraine went from being an exporter of electricity in late summer to Europe, to now depending more on more for it from the west.

The 'why now' imo is basically Russia losing faith in accomplishing it's goals in a confined neat way. What they see is Ukrainian hawks in full control, supported by tens of billions of weapons and life support urging them to keep on. Any talks of peace are snuffed out like we've seen with how the progressive got cucked here few weeks ago, probably the same happening in Europe. Every week there's a new weapons or aid package announced and signed into law in Germany, US, all over. So what's the point of fighting in a confined way, especially when Ukraine keeps going after targets like crucial bridges or Crimea. Each side is doubling down in the staring match in a negative spiral. I'm not sure how long Russia can keep this up, their tolerance for suffering has always been extraordinary but how long can Europe subsidize Ukraine when Europe itself is hurting pretty badly with inflation, cost of living, etc.

Something has to give, either Russia will be pulling back, which doesn't seem likely any time soon if we look at their signaling of sending hundreds of thousands more, or the West will have to make the decision to apply pressure to Ukraine to concede some things.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 6 2022 09:38pm
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Nov 6 2022 09:43pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Nov 6 2022 09:35pm)
Refugee wave, more monetary pressure on EU to pay for Ukraine. Ukraine went from being an exporter of electricity in late summer to Europe, to now depending more on more for it from the west.

The 'why now' imo is basically Russia losing faith in accomplishing it's goals in a confined neat way. What they see is Ukrainian hawks in full control, supported by tens of billions of weapons and life support urging them to keep on. Any talks of peace are snuffed out like we've seen with how the progressive got cucked here few weeks ago, probably the same happening in Europe. Every week there's a new weapons or aid package announced and signed into law in Germany, US, all over. So what's the point of fighting in a confined way, especially when Ukraine keeps going after targets like crucial bridges or Crimea. Each side is doubling down in the staring match in a negative spiral. I'm not sure how long Russia can keep this up, their tolerance for suffering has always been extraordinary but how long can Europe subsidize Ukraine when Europe itself is hurting pretty badly with inflation, cost of living, etc.


I mean what would change between the failed blitz of Kiev months ago, and the escalation against civilian targets now? The only thing I can think is timing, aimed for winter. And early enough that refugees can actually escape instead of starving to death en masse. They had their shot at a neat and confined victory and failed, so the protracted bloody conflict was the status quo most of the year. Its only now when temperatures start their first real frosts that Russia does what I said day one it could do all along. And as far as how long Russia could keep this up- we've been told by the propaganda sources for months that Russia was running out of missiles, running out of shells, running out of drones, they couldn't keep it up. Except they hadn't even tried firing at Kiev. And now that they are, we're talking about millions of refugees.

If we're going to assume its just Russia incompetence come to rather fortunate providence by the well timed command shakeup, okay that's one explanation. But if it was by design, then I think its fair to say this strategy is aimed less at inflicting mass civilian death and instead aimed at increasing that economic and social burden on the European nations that will need to support these millions of refugees. Heck, at the same time Russia is bombing infrastructure in Kiev, Poland is building barbed wire fences around Kaliningrad with an accusation that Russia is flying African migrants there on planes to dump in to the EU. And lets face it, if this is the Russian geopolitical strategy again just like it was in 2011+, the US and EU demonstrated we have no working response.
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Nov 7 2022 06:34am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Nov 7 2022 05:35am)
Refugee wave, more monetary pressure on EU to pay for Ukraine. Ukraine went from being an exporter of electricity in late summer to Europe, to now depending more on more for it from the west.

The 'why now' imo is basically Russia losing faith in accomplishing it's goals in a confined neat way. What they see is Ukrainian hawks in full control, supported by tens of billions of weapons and life support urging them to keep on. Any talks of peace are snuffed out like we've seen with how the progressive got cucked here few weeks ago, probably the same happening in Europe. Every week there's a new weapons or aid package announced and signed into law in Germany, US, all over. So what's the point of fighting in a confined way, especially when Ukraine keeps going after targets like crucial bridges or Crimea. Each side is doubling down in the staring match in a negative spiral. I'm not sure how long Russia can keep this up, their tolerance for suffering has always been extraordinary but how long can Europe subsidize Ukraine when Europe itself is hurting pretty badly with inflation, cost of living, etc.

Something has to give, either Russia will be pulling back, which doesn't seem likely any time soon if we look at their signaling of sending hundreds of thousands more, or the West will have to make the decision to apply pressure to Ukraine to concede some things.



Very based
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