By any standard, objective or not, Ukraine is winning the war by an insane margin.
When the invasion started Russia had a simple and overly confident goal. They would “shock and awe” the weak Ukrainian Army, waltz into Kyiv using their countless tanks, crush the unpopular Ukrainian government, and set up a Ukrainian puppet government.

Russia was defeated. They took INSANE losses, failed to take the city, and then were pushed out of the area entirely by a Ukrainian counterattack. This is a monumental failure in tactical and strategic terms. It would be like US forces being defeated in their advance to Baghdad and then driven out of Iraq entirely.
Russian propagandists tried to move the goalposts. They said the real goal was in the Donbas and Kyiv was a feint and now the Russians would descend on Eastern Ukraine with a vengeance.
The goalposts were now Novomoskovsk- an important city. If Russia could take Novomoskovsk in the next few months that would mean their advance was moving at a somewhat decent pace and victory could be achieved in some small way.
By May it was clear Novomoskovsk was off the table- Russian forces had made no real progress. So the goalposts moved and now Pershotravensk became the goal. Then by June Russian forces were nowhere near Pershotravensk. It might as well have been on the moon. So Russia tries to take Druzhkivka and that becomes the new goal. Well as July comes around Russian forces are nowhere near Druzhkivka. Russia got as far as Severodonetsk- a city a far way away from Druzhkivka.
This was the PEAK of the Russian advance.

Now let’s go back to where the war is today. As everyone knows Ukraine counter-attacked around Kharkiv and crushed the Russian forces in that region with over 3000 Russians dying in 3 days on that front alone. Russian forces didn’t withdraw- they ran for their lives and retreated back into Russia in total chaos, leaving tanks and valuable supplies behind.
This is a spectacular and devastating victory for Ukraine.
They have taken the initiative- Russia is now threatened directly and facing serious problems. They will be forced to respond to Ukraine’s movements
They have taken lots of pressure off the frontline and thrown the entire Russian advance into disarray. Since Russia is now threatened directly Russia is stripping troops from the South to reinforce that front
Let’s all remember something- this has cost Russia A LOT. Russia has taken insane losses, lost irreplaceable gear, and its economy is in serious trouble. Russia has paid dearly and accomplished none of its goals.
So Russia went from failing to advance in any meaningful way to now being pushed back actively and having their entire war effort threatened. They are now resorting to bombing civilian infrastructure comitting war crimes and violating Geneva treaty they signed which as always means Russia can never be trusted as its a savage country of liars and prostitutes which cannot be trusted. With Kherson pull-back on the horizon the questions will be asked even more inside Russia where half of their army disappeared and how come they are losing on all fronts.
Point 1: Ukraine wants MOREUkraine just wanted to survive at first. They were likely willing to give up the Donbas and Crimea in exchange for peace. Not anymore. Ukraine can win now and they realize it, from the common troops to the top-level commanders. Ukraine is going to take back every inch of territory they lost and Crimea.
Point 2: Russia is in a cornerPutin is so screwed. He now needs to mobilize and call up reserves to win the war. This would basically mean he has to declare this a war and state publically that the military failed. He would also have to crash his own economy by calling millions away from their jobs and lives to fight a war Putin started.
Point 3: NATO is winningThe entire goal here for Russia was to keep Ukraine out of NATO. Well NATO is bigger and better than ever. Germany is expanding its military, the Nordic countries are trying to join, and Ukraine is now die-hard anti-Russian.
Point 4: Losses- insane lossesRussia now has lost 70,000 men. That's 12 times more men than the US lost in all 10 years of the Iraq War. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is being propped up by foreign currency spending and financial restrictions. Things are bad for Russia- really bad.
Point 5: Russia’s goals
Let’s judge this war by what Russia wanted to accomplish
Goal 1: Establish a puppet Ukraine government, expand Russian influence, diminish NATO, and frighten the West. FAILED
Goal 2: Take the Donbas and Odesa: FAILED
Goal 3: Keep Russia safe from Ukrainian forces: REMAINS TO BEEN SEEN
By Russia’s own standards they are losing and losing badly.