Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2022 22:11)
That's not a compromise in today's reality, that's a wish list. What you just described is pretty much a middle point between point two and 3 leaning more towards 3. It won't happen though. Maybe I would of agreed if this was the outcome prior to the war but now there's little chance of Russia returning the Donbass to Ukrainian sovereignty, not after they publicly annexed them.
Well, maybe Russia also gets to keep its pre-2022 possessions in Donbass. Those are densely populated regions in which Russia had 8 years to entrench itself, winning them back will not be easy. I remain highly sceptical, however, that Russia will be able to hold the territory in between, the Kherson and Melitopol oblasts.
In any case, what is not negotiable from Ukraine's perspective is EU membership and free choice of military cooperations, i.e. that they can keep being supplied by their NATO allies, even if they don't formally join NATO and won't host large concentrations of NATO troops on their soil.
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Well I mean what's happening now with Ukraine didn't happen out of the blue. One event preceded the other. If there's no NATO creep eastward there's no tilt of Ukraine against Russia spurred by the west and the close neighbors to the west is there?
Just to reiterate this point: NATO did not strive to expand eastwards, it were the Eastern European countries like Poland, Czechia or Romania which strived toward NATO because they were scared of the Russians forcing them back under their rule once their post-1991 period of weakness was over. Likewise, there was already a strong tilt toward the West in significant segments of Ukraine's society back in 2004, and even more so a decade later.
At the end of the day, I think that the deciding factor for Ukraine tilting to the West over Russia was not the pull of NATO and its eastward expansion - I believe the x-factor was the pull of the EU with its economic opportunity and rule of law, as opposed to the stagnant economy, the corrupt oligarchy and the legal uncertainty in Putin's Russia.