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Nov 1 2022 12:29pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Nov 1 2022 01:00pm)
Two things.

First, it doesn't matter if it's official. Promises were made, they were broken. Red lines were declared, they were crossed. The red lines are similar to red lines other large countries have, US, China, Russia, India, etc. Everyone knows what they are, no one at the upper levels of diplomacy and war is ignorant of what they are. What happened is that as per usual Westerners refuse to accept that other countries, even nuclear-armed ones, are privy to the same 'unofficial' declarations that they themselves constantly make. What is the "rules based international order" if not a direct challenge to "the rule of international law"?

Second, Russia did try to just sell gas and integrate into Europe. They asked to join the EU, they tried to join NATO multiple times. They made what appears to be serious attempts to integrate into the European side of Eurasia, and those attempts were met with disdain and even, according to Putin's recollection of his meeting with Bill Clinton, outright laughter. So did they "paint themselves into a corner", or were they pushed into one?


US administrations are not bound by promises made by prior administrations. The promises made were promises kept by the administration that made them.
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Nov 1 2022 12:34pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 1 2022 02:25pm)
So, let me recap this real quick: After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia continued to consider Ukraine a vassal, a part of its sphere of influence , governed by a Kremlin-aligned puppet. Russia was very unhappy when this puppet got overthrown and Ukraine wanted to orient itself toward the EU. So they annexed Crimea, propped up a separatist movement which seized the majority of the Donbass and thrust Ukraine into a perpetual state of (low intensity) civil war.

And now you're saying that their big "compromise" proposal was a deal in which Ukraine cedes the land that Russia blatantly stole from them and signs off on a neutrality status which limits their sovereignty and their ability to defend themselves from further Russian aggression - and in return, they get an "assurance" from Russia that Russia will not beat them into submission again whenever they act against Moscow's will?

As a side note: does anyone seriously believe that these proposed referendums in the Russia-controlled parts of Donbass would be free and fair elections without intimidation or fuckery?


The puppet was democratically elected and was overthrown in a coup, led overwhelmingly by the far right and ethno-nationalistic pravi sector, azov, and the likes. Goom has made this point half a dozen times when talking to you, your willingness to hand-swipe illegitimate ways to take control of power and frame them as some victory for the people isn't accurate.

This is the way i see it.

Complete surrender = All of Ukraine is under Russia's thumb as it was prior to 2014.
Middle of the road = Minsk 2
complete and embarrassing loss= Russia going home

Please try to explain what you think a good and realistic compromise would be?

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 1 2022 12:35pm
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Nov 1 2022 12:34pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2022 18:23)

Those were vague, unofficial, not legally binding promises made by diplomats at a time when the Warsaw Pact still existed.

You know who broke an official, legally binding promise? Russia. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nukes in return for security assurances from Russia. Here's the first two articles of this document that Russia's president had officially signed back then:


Quote
1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defence or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.


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Nov 1 2022 12:37pm
Quote (Santara @ Nov 1 2022 11:29am)
US administrations are not bound by promises made by prior administrations. The promises made were promises kept by the administration that made them.

This is why any sort of negotiation with America is impossible. America is, and is increasingly so as it experiences this political degeneration, agreement incapable.

But it goes beyond that. You can't even sign an agreement with America and expect it to be enforced the next day, let alone after the next midterm or presidential election. America never abided by the JCPOA. America and it's vassals didn't abide by this recent grain deal. Agreements are often just exercises for Americans to massage PR.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Nov 1 2022 12:41pm
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Nov 1 2022 12:40pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Nov 1 2022 02:34pm)
Those were vague, unofficial, not legally binding promises made by diplomats at a time when the Warsaw Pact still existed.

You know who broke an official, legally binding promise? Russia. In the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine gave up its nukes in return for security assurances from Russia. Here's the first two articles of this document that Russia's president had officially signed back then:


Vague, unofficial, not legally binding...all words to basically mitigate responsibility. You think the Russians give a fuck about lawyer speak here?

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Nov 1 2022 12:46pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Nov 1 2022 11:40am)
Vague, unofficial, not legally binding...all words to basically mitigate responsibility. You think the Russians give a fuck about lawyer speak here?

It would be funny to watch these people argue that geopolitics is some fucking game with snappy Joss Whedon dialogue, if it wasn't for the threat of endless escalation leading to nuclear war.

This post was edited by kusotarre1 on Nov 1 2022 12:46pm
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Nov 1 2022 12:46pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2022 18:23)
Like 80% of the reason why we're here is because we broke an accord in the 90s.[/URL]


This is FALSE.
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Nov 1 2022 01:00pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2022 19:34)
The puppet was democratically elected and was overthrown in a coup, led overwhelmingly by the far right and ethno-nationalistic pravi sector, azov, and the likes. Goom has made this point half a dozen times when talking to you, your willingness to hand-swipe illegitimate ways to take control of power and frame them as some victory for the people isn't accurate.

What separates a coup from a revolution? Fact of the matter is that Ukraine was in a state of constitutional crisis from late 2013 to early 2014. The two democratically elected branches of government, the executive represented by president Yanukovych, and the legislative represented by the parliament, had arrived at an impasse.

Goom is also conveniently ignoring or downplaying several factors in his narrative of the "violent coup which overthrew the democratically elected president":
  • it was Yanukovych's special police which started getting violent against the euromaidan protsters. His side was the one that's largely responsible for the escalation from peaceful protests to violent clashes; then later lost control of the situation and had to flee.
  • Yanukovych came to power after the 2010 presidential election in which the question of Ukrainian EU membership was not a salient issue, partially because Yanukovych defused the issue by promising that he'd be open and not stand in the way of Ukraine joining the EU. By calling off the EU-Ukraine association agreement at the eleventh hour, he broke this promise.
  • After he fled to Russia, the (democratically elected) parliament voted on a resolution that found Yanukovych to have "restrained himself from performing his constitutional duties" and had effectively resigned. This resolution was supported by a broad majority, including 36 MPs from his own party. (But would have had a strong majority even without them.)





Quote
This is the way i see it.

Complete surrender = All of Ukraine is under Russia's thumb as it was prior to 2014.
Middle of the road = Minsk 2
Russia going home = complete and embarrassing loss

Please try to explain what you think a good and realistic compromise would be?

Imho, a good and realistic compromise would be that Russia retreats from all Ukrainian territory except Crimea, but cedes any oil or gas found offshore from Crimea. Ukraine is free to join the EU. Ukraine refrains from joining NATO and commits itself to not host large contingents of NATO troops on its territory, but is otherwise free to engage in military cooperation with whoever they want. Ukraine waives any claims to reparations for the war and enshrines the Russian language as well as statutes of autonomy for its eastern regions into its constitution. Russia publicly acknowledges that any future violation of Ukraine's sovereignty renders this whole peace treaty null and void and that Ukraine will be free to join NATO with immediate effect in any such scenario.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 1 2022 01:02pm
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Nov 1 2022 01:06pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ 1 Nov 2022 19:40)
Vague, unofficial, not legally binding...all words to basically mitigate responsibility. You think the Russians give a fuck about lawyer speak here?

So the unofficial words from Western diplomats, spoken in backroom negotiations in 1989 and 1990 when it wasn't even clear yet whether the Warsaw Pact would disolve, are to be treated as gospel... but we're supposed to look the other way when it comes to Russia's brazen violation of the promises they made to Ukraine in an official treaty which was signed by their literal president?

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Nov 1 2022 01:06pm
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Nov 1 2022 01:09pm
this is all old ground. I guess there is a lull for now.

news around the world:

Al Jazeera (and cnn): Iran plans to send ‘over 200 drones’ to Russia – Kyiv

This post was edited by ferdia on Nov 1 2022 01:10pm
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