1.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.htmlSince June (pre-debates), he tends to fluctuate between the low 30s and mid 20s and it's remarkably consistent.
2. How often does excitement win you a primary? Howard Dean was more exciting than John Kerry. Almost everyone was more exciting than both John McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. Votes win primaries and as long as your campaign can turn out the vote, it doesn't matter how packed your rallies are. The fact of the matter is that older voters are CONSISTENT in their voting patterns and so are people of color.
3. I'm not sure if Democrats know what Democrats want outside of beating Trump. Polling has consistently corroborated that beating Trump is far more important than finding a candidate you agree with. The past few primaries have shown that voters don't really care about policy, rather, they care about personality. When it comes to personality, Biden, Sanders, and Pete seem to do best there.
The way I see it, as long as Biden hits at least 15% (delegate threshold) in predominately white states, there's no way he could lose. If he is the delegate leader or within 10% of the delegate leader BEFORE South Carolina, he effectively wins the primary. Super Tuesday should favor him immensely.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html Basically a 4 way tie in Iowa
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html 2 way tie in NH
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html Biden leading but Nevada is also really hard to poll so I'd take it with a grain of salt
Super Tuesday has North Carolina, Virginia, Texas, and California as the largest states. Biden is crushing it in Texas and in a 3 way tie in California.
Fair points. You're right that Biden does have some consistent voting groups in his favor and will probably clean up in the South.
He probably benefits from a larger field. His name recognition and status as a former VP helps him more in a crowded field. If Warren drops out early on, Sanders will likely see a boost (and vice versa). If Buttigieg drops out, I'm not so sure his votes will go to Biden even though they are the two most moderate. They have different bases. If it remains this core 4 for a while, Biden has a better shot imo.