What evidence do you have to support this wild speculation? If he didn't stumble now, after over half a dozen debates, hundreds of campaign stops, and POTUS abusing the office to go after his family....why would he stumble now? What event do you expect to happen between now and the future?

crucial fixadent failure that this time around leaves his teeth on the podium instead of squirming around inside his mouth?

Imho, Buttigieg has been groomed to fulfill this exact role since the very beginning. It was really... "interesting" how an unknown, unexperienced mayor of a small town in Indiana was showered in money and positive media coverage the second he announced his cadidacy.





Biden is still only one fuckup away from having wide swaths of the party turning on him. His entire strength is based on outsized support from older african american voters. It and doesnt seem to me like he has their support because they are excited about him, he has it because this group really wants to play it safe this time around and thinks he has the best chance at taking down Trump.

It's a bit similar to the 2008 primary, where Hillary was still leading with african american voters in most primary polls, probably because blacks werent sure yet if Obama would be electable. Once Obama had won Iowa and proven his electability, they jumped ship in droves. Now, there is no more major black candidate left this time around, so that helps Biden, but it still exemplifies the shakiness of his "play it safe"-coalition.

What constitutes a fuckup? His strength also doesn't rely on older AA voters either since he's effectively tied in Iowa and NH with 3 other candidates. Biden only isn't strong with the far left of the party. But I agree that many people aren't enthusiastic about his candidacy relative to Warren and especially Sanders. I'm not sure that matters though.

1. Biden's polling has fallen from the mid 30s to the mid 20s, even as the field has thinned out, since his initial post-announcment boost (and as his name recognition advantage vs the field has decreased)

2. Democratic voters are not excited or inspired to vote for him. Like Black XistenZ mentioned, he's the play it safe candidate.

3. His political past and baggage is not consistent with what Democratic voters ideally want. This was somewhat true of Clinton in 2016, even more so now in 2020.

I expect his lead to decrease once Democratic voters have an opportunity to more closely compare him with his competition in the primaries. Essentially, he's leading based on name recognition and his former position, not who he actually is or offers, and I believe this advantage will dwindle as time goes on.

To your point, he's still the odds-on favorite to win the nomination in Vegas and betting markets. This is just my personal speculation.



Agreed. With Sanders and Warren occupying the further left wing of the party, I do think the DNC has boosted Buttigieg into the mainstream gray as Biden's backup. But I also think he earned this role over others because he is very politically talented. He's arguably the smartest person left of the Democratic field, and his answers during debates are probably the smoothest. These qualities do not necessarily mean he's the best candidate. My point is that I can see why the DNC has groomed him as a moderate and future star in the party.

as long it's not an issue to you that Trump would receive donations from the NRA. i don't see a current issue with how Sanders is getting donations myself.
...but to anyone claiming that "only Sanders" can do it because "they" believe he's best candidate... is hypocritical at the least (not addressing you personally with that)

i think it's downplaying it a tad to say against dark money, but accepting contributions.
good comparison though

Definitely. Regarding Buttigieg as a presidential candidate though... this might not be politically correct, but I think him being gay might turn off a relevant share of Democratic voters, particularly among black males...

I dont dislike Trump for taking donations. I have plenty if substantive reasons

lol. fair

1. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
Since June (pre-debates), he tends to fluctuate between the low 30s and mid 20s and it's remarkably consistent.

2. How often does excitement win you a primary? Howard Dean was more exciting than John Kerry. Almost everyone was more exciting than both John McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. Votes win primaries and as long as your campaign can turn out the vote, it doesn't matter how packed your rallies are. The fact of the matter is that older voters are CONSISTENT in their voting patterns and so are people of color.

3. I'm not sure if Democrats know what Democrats want outside of beating Trump. Polling has consistently corroborated that beating Trump is far more important than finding a candidate you agree with. The past few primaries have shown that voters don't really care about policy, rather, they care about personality. When it comes to personality, Biden, Sanders, and Pete seem to do best there.

The way I see it, as long as Biden hits at least 15% (delegate threshold) in predominately white states, there's no way he could lose. If he is the delegate leader or within 10% of the delegate leader BEFORE South Carolina, he effectively wins the primary. Super Tuesday should favor him immensely.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-6731.html Basically a 4 way tie in Iowa
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html 2 way tie in NH
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nv/nevada_democratic_presidential_caucus-6866.html Biden leading but Nevada is also really hard to poll so I'd take it with a grain of salt

Super Tuesday has North Carolina, Virginia, Texas, and California as the largest states. Biden is crushing it in Texas and in a 3 way tie in California.