It's what I expected when the news broke that he has covid.

1. There are still overwhelming odds in his favor to get through this. His chance of survival is probably something like 98%, and the chance of survival without complications is probably something like 85%. So this stuff doesnt meaningfully affect his reelection chances.
2. Him being unable to campaign is obviously very bad for him. But him getting out of the next debate, and the public eye, for two weeks might actually benefit him. And experience from other world leaders getting covid suggests that this triggers a wave of patriotism and sympathy, which both work in his favor. Taken together, these two effects should cancel each other out to a substantial degree.

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 2 2020 12:33pm

10/1 update first update since Trump tested positive:

Biden -180
Trump +150

Sliding around a lot today the gap is closing again

Trump's covid diagnosis definitely introduced additional volatility into the race. However, I dont see how this ends up being a notable plus for him. The downside risks clearly prevail.

i think you're right, about your other post too

the gap will probably remain tight, nothing truly exciting happening in betting not like 2016 lol

Eh, I wouldnt be so sure about that. This is 2020 we're talking about... whoever wrote the script for this year was clearly coked out of his mind.

Saturday morning 10/3 update:

Biden 1/2
Trump 8/5

edit:
Just noticed odds for Pence and Kamala:

Pence 30/1
Harris 50/1




This post was edited by lito on Oct 3 2020 08:18am

Luckily he went public about it after market close so our 401k's wont get seppuku'd until monday

trump must win
it's the only option

As long as he doesnt rip to this, I wouldnt expect any lasting effects on the stock markets anyway.