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Oct 18 2022 12:29pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Oct 18 2022 07:25pm)
Being a reliable source of energy flies out the window when you consider the whole situation and not just the trade/energy side of the coin. If China made a move to take over Taiwan and we started throwing tens of billions of dollars in weapons and intel to Taiwan and then China stops exporting steel and rare earths to us, would we frame it as China is being an unreliable trade partner?

Idk, to me that's a silly way to frame it because if you look at the overall situation you understand why they would respond with stopping the flow of key goods. It's a logical reaction to our support. Not much different than what Russia is doing with the gas. You can't take a side in a war and then expect no blow-back. Europe's energy crisis is at least part blowback.


Perhaps I wasn't clear but there is no framing on my part. Simply a statement of what I believe to be fact. Going forward, Russia is not a reliable supplier of energy for Europe.
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Oct 18 2022 12:33pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ 18 Oct 2022 19:58)
https://i.imgur.com/EJMMbAF.png

And I know you think that America bombing those pipelines is actually a blessing in disguise as it's ridding Europe of barely profitable minerals and alloy production, and that this is all going to turn around within this magic 2 year window where gas liquefaction plants are going to be installed from Argentina to Canada at speeds that would make Stalin blush, but, lol, you are wrong on all counts.

Europe is being de-industrialized, de-energized and even de-toiletpaperized, and this is all before the incoming war with China, which the current crop of utterly delusional EU politicians will almost certainly also dive into face first, expecting a pool and finding a damp slab of concrete.


The US have lived fine with a huge trade deficit for decades, so it's not like a temporary trade deficit will doom Europe for all eternity. The big question is if energy prices will come down to a more sustainable level eventually. Currently, global energy markets are undergoing a reshuffling and politicians in both the EU and NA are still prioritizing their green energy pipe dreams over expanding supplies with domestic sources. Both factors will inevitably fade over time, so prices will definitely come down some. Whether it will be enough is the million dollar question.


Come on, not this "we're gonna run out of toilet paper" crap again - we just had that with covid. :rofl:

This post was edited by Black XistenZ on Oct 18 2022 12:34pm
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Oct 18 2022 12:36pm
Major evacuations in Kherson happening now, people are being moved to right bank.
Russians must be crushed there before the New Year.
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Oct 18 2022 12:37pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 11:15am)
lol

I agree it's funny. China's superiority in hypersonic technology has already created a situation where American ships can't come within a few thousand kilometers of the Chinese mainland. And the CPEC has already nullified the effect of America's old trump card, which was a blockade of the Strait of Malacca.

Here's the report - https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.pdf - you'll see that 2025 plays big in the imagination of China hawks.

RAND Corp has always been a good insight into what the neocon jackals of Washington think. Similar RAND papers on Ukraine have laid out American strategy very similar to what we're seeing unfold presently.
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Oct 18 2022 12:39pm
Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 02:29pm)
Perhaps I wasn't clear but there is no framing on my part. Simply a statement of what I believe to be fact. Going forward, Russia is not a reliable supplier of energy for Europe.


Being reliable vs unreliable doesn't happen in a vacuum it's dependent on something no? They're not squeezing Europe's energy just because they are evil, they are doing it as a response to Europe's support for Ukraine in the war. You can't separate the two. Seems like an obvious thing but largely glossed over point.
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Oct 18 2022 12:41pm
Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 18 2022 09:37pm)
I agree it's funny. China's superiority in hypersonic technology has already created a situation where American ships can't come within a few thousand kilometers of the Chinese mainland. And the CPEC has already nullified the effect of America's old trump card, which was a blockade of the Strait of Malacca.

Here's the report - https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.pdf - you'll see that 2025 plays big in the imagination of China hawks.

RAND Corp has always been a good insight into what the neocon jackals of Washington think. Similar RAND papers on Ukraine have laid out American strategy very similar to what we're seeing unfold presently.






hehehe guess already did and will do so as they will
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Oct 18 2022 12:45pm
On indiscriminate use of drones. Every time they do so, Russia claims it is attacking "infrastructure". That does NOT make it a legal target.

First, virtually every Convention on the Law of War specifically addresses "terrorism":
I. Treaties
Geneva Convention IV
Article 33 of the 1949 Geneva Convention IV provides: “[A]ll measures of intimidation or of terrorism are prohibited."
Additional Protocol I
Article 51(2) of the 1977 Additional Protocol I prohibits “acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population”.
Additional Protocol II
Article 4(2)(d) of the 1977 Additional Protocol II prohibits “acts of terrorism” against all persons who do not take a direct part or who have ceased to take part in hostilities.
Additional Protocol II
Article 13(2) of the 1977 Additional Protocol II prohibits “acts or threats of violence the primary purpose of which is to spread terror among the civilian population”.
Statute of the Special Court for Sierra Leone
Article 3 of the 2002 Statute of the Special Court for Sierra Leone provides: “The Special Court shall have the power to prosecute persons who committed or ordered the commission of serious violations … of [the 1977 Additional Protocol II]. The violations shall include: … (d) Acts of terrorism.”
Threats to commit acts of terrorism are covered by Article 3(h).

Second, is the fundamental principle of distinction between civilians and combatants and between civilian objects and military objectives. From Doctors without Borders' "Practical Guide to Humanitarian Law":

"The definition of a military objective is a crucial part of the mechanism for protecting civilians in times of conflict. There are two cumulative conditions that complement each other:

The nature, the place, the purpose, or the use of the object must effectively contribute to military action. Therefore, the civilian or military nature of an object depends on the effect this object has on the course of the conflict.
The destruction of the object—in whole or in part—capturing it, or neutralizing it must show a specific military advantage. Hence, attacks that will result in solely unspecified or potential advantage are prohibited.

In case of doubt concerning an object that is normally used for civilian purposes—such as a house or other dwelling, a place of worship, or a school—parties to a conflict must assume that the object in question is not being used for military purposes (API Art. 52.3). In order for the attack to be considered legitimate, it must be shown that it was indeed used for military purpose and that the civil destructions remain proportional.
At all times, humanitarian law establishes that military commanders have the obligation to respect a number of precautions in the conduct of military operations, so as to ensure the protection of civilians. For instance, these precautions consist in prohibiting excessive use of force and doing “everything feasible to verify that the objectives to be attacked are neither civilians nor civilian objects” and in “minimizing incidental loss of civilian life, injury to civilians, and damage to civilian objects” (API Art. 57)."

Third, and directly related to the concept of distinction is the principle of proportionality. Even if there is a military advantage to be gained by destroying an object, its destruction must not have a disproportionate effect on the civilian population that exceeds its military importance. The buzz-bombing of locations nowhere near the front, and having very little military utility is a war crime, pure and simple.

During the war in the former Yugoslavia, UN forces went to extreme lengths to avoid civilian impacts, going so far as to develop particular munitions for the purpose.

But what can you expect from a fascist terrorist state like russia
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Oct 18 2022 12:48pm
Quote (Black XistenZ @ Oct 18 2022 11:33am)
The US have lived fine with a huge trade deficit for decades, so it's not like a temporary trade deficit will doom Europe for all eternity. The big question is if energy prices will come down to a more sustainable level eventually. Currently, global energy markets are undergoing a reshuffling and politicians in both the EU and NA are still prioritizing their green energy pipe dreams over expanding supplies with domestic sources. Both factors will inevitably fade over time, so prices will definitely come down some. Whether it will be enough is the million dollar question.

Come on, not this "we're gonna run out of toilet paper" crap again - we just had that with covid. :rofl:


1) It won't be.

2) The covid shortages were panic buying. These shortages are factory closures and sanctions. Big difference.

Closures: https://www.ft.com/content/3fa477c0-73a1-4054-b791-7c9a281697e2

Sanctions: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/suppy-chain-crisis-ensnarls-toilet-paper-producers-as-russia-ban-roils-market
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Oct 18 2022 12:51pm
Quote (Lvivz @ Oct 18 2022 11:41am)

Because they aren't at war, yet, genius. In a shooting war, the exclusion areas look like this:

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Oct 18 2022 12:52pm
What happens to Russian soldiers after Ukraine
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