Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 18 2022 06:58pm)

https://i.imgur.com/EJMMbAF.png

And I know you think that America bombing those pipelines is actually a blessing in disguise as it's ridding Europe of barely profitable minerals and alloy production, and that this is all going to turn around within this magic 2 year window where gas liquefaction plants are going to be installed from Argentina to Canada at speeds that would make Stalin blush, but, lol, you are wrong on all counts.

Europe is being de-industrialized, de-energized and even de-toiletpaperized, and this is all before the incoming war with China, which the current crop of utterly delusional EU politicians will almost certainly also dive into face first, expecting a pool and finding a damp slab of concrete.

Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 18 2022 07:03pm)

5 years tops.

Quote (ferdia @ Oct 18 2022 11:04am)

they are not ready yet (to do anything other then taiwan). they have a 100 year plan remember, and afaik i think they wanted a good military by 2045.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 07:02pm)

Not source, supplier.

Take your pick^^ The factors are blatantly obvious.

Threatening to cut off supply. - This was in direct response to sanctions. i.e. A response, a Reaction rather then an Action.
Actually cutting of supply to Poland + Bulgaria. - I'm not quite sure what action led to this, happy for someone to chime in.
Demanding gas is paid for only in Rubles. - This was in direct response to sanctions. i.e. A response, a Reaction rather then an Action.
Reducing supply in NS1 to 40% in June. - This was in direct response to sanctions. i.e. A response, a Reaction rather then an Action.
"Halting the operation of one of the last two operating turbines of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline due to the “technical condition of the engine”." - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/26/explainer-nord-stream-1-gas-pipeline-russia-germany-europe - This was in direct response to sanctions. i.e. A response, a Reaction rather then an Action.

And oh I don't know, invading the most important transit country of energy supply to Europe. - After a foreign power removed the elected government there back in 2014.

That is only scratching the surface.

Do you believe Russia has the reputation of a reliable supplier of energy to Europe? - Before this war Russia supplied energy. Russia stopped supplying in direct response to actions taken by the west. in this regard the West has not been a reliable trade partner.
If you do, what factors lead you to believe that?

Quote (ferdia @ Oct 18 2022 06:47pm)

If you have the inclination to walk down this road/debate:

Tell me again what factor makes Russia an unreliable source of energy.

My opening argument would go something like this:

The US should not have played a hand in the removal of the elected Ukrainian Government in 2014. Nor should they have pumped billions into the country since then with this war in mind. The european members of Nato should have told the US in no uncertain terms that this was a bad idea, and instead they should have outlined to the US that Russia was not the enemy and therefore we did not need to wake the bear. Ukraine had already been stepping close to the EU in recent decades and there was no need to accelerate this. Eventually Ukraine would and will, be a part of the EU. When Russia sat down with Ukraine earlier this year, and, as I understood it, Ukraine was about to agree to a settlement, the US and England should not have veteod/told Ukraine not to negotiate. This would have ended the war. Similarily the US should be looking to end the war not escalate it, but they are winning at the moment so they won't. Now I accept that there are people that find such a settlement a betrayal, but my arguement is that at least Ukraine (with the borders it had) would be free.

The West then imposed sanctions on Russia. I would query, why did we do that ? Ultimately this wars origins were very well telegraphed and therefore the EU should honestly have minded its own business. If the US wanted to support Ukraine, fine, let them, but dragging Nato and the EU into this has led to where we are today. We imposed sanctions, russia responded by cutting off energy. Calling Russia unreliable for this is ignoring the actions the EU took before that point.

We have now already crossed several bridges, there is no point crying over spilt milk. at this point Ukraine will recapture everything it has lost and we can look at crimea next year. so this time next year we can see if the US is willing to end this war or not (the US is the only entity that can end the war). no point talking about removing sanctions etc as thats completely unrealistic.

Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 18 2022 07:08pm)

Who is "they"? China doesn't want this war, America does and even super-hawk outfits like RAND say 2025 is the hard limit by which time China will have an insurmountable force advantage against the US.

So 5 years is optimistic. US will try to provoke this within the next couple years, is my guess.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 07:11pm)

I'm not disputing the origins of Russia's invasion. In fact I'm probably in agreement with alot of what you outlined.

I repeat my original point because the fact remains. Going forward, Russia is not a reliable supplier of energy for Europe.

Quote (kusotarre1 @ Oct 18 2022 07:08pm)

Who is "they"? China doesn't want this war, America does and even super-hawk outfits like RAND say 2025 is the hard limit by which time China will have an insurmountable force advantage against the US.

So 5 years is optimistic. US will try to provoke this within the next couple years, is my guess.

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 07:15pm)

lol

Quote (Prox1m1ty @ Oct 18 2022 01:36pm)

Are you able to clarify this position? So Russia is a reliable source of energy for the EU. Its the EU's fault that energy supply has been interrupted. Its the EU's fault because they are supporting Ukraine after Putin invaded Ukraine?